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Finance for Non-Financial Managers
 

Finance for Non-Financial Managers

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Finance for Non-Financial Managers Training Course at LOGIC

Finance for Non-Financial Managers Training Course at LOGIC

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Finance for Non-Financial Managers Finance for Non-Financial Managers Presentation Transcript

  • The only question with wealth is what you do with it.LOGIC Executive Program LEP Finance Module Tarek Fahim
  • Breaking The Ice Tarek Fahim 2
  • Are you Wondering :• Who cares about financial statements?• What do people mean by “top line growth”?• What do people mean by “bottom line growth”?• What are assets?• What is the difference between profit and cash flow? Which one is more important?• What is the difference between operating profit and net income?• What is “overhead”? Tarek Fahim 3
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 4
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 5
  • There are four basic components of financial statements 2. Statement Of 1. Profit And Loss Account 3. Balance Sheet Cash FlowsMatches revenues with costs Shows the changes in cash a) Lists the assets owned by • Profit: revenue > cost • Over the accounting period the firm • Loss: revenue < cost b) Details how these assets are financed • Shareholders (equity) • Lenders (liability)States the results of the firms States actual transactions Snapshot of firm’s financialoperations without accounting position • Over a period of time adjustments • On the day the statement • Including accounting was prepared adjustments, e.g. • Cumulative - represents depreciation result of all transactions that have taken place up to that point 4. Notes To The Accounts Contain explanatory information in addition to or in respect of the above statements e.g. revenue split by geography/segment, financials of acquisitions/discontinued businesses etc. Tarek Fahim 6
  • What can we get out of them?• At the most basic level, financial statements tell you • How much it sells and at what cost predominantly • How much cash it generates quantitative • How many assets it has and whether these are owned by banks or shareholders• However, they also provide insight into • Who owns it/major stakeholders • How it is organised/key decision makers some qualitative • Market share/growth targets data given • Level of concern for its employees/community • What the Chairman looks like (!)• And if you look really hard, they may provide reading between • A window into the company’s strategy the lines required • Economics of the industry/competitors Tarek Fahim 7
  • FS ReviewThe Profit And Loss AccountThe Cash Flow StatementThe Balance Sheet Tarek Fahim 8
  • The Infamous Profit & Loss Formula Revenues Costs Profits Tarek Fahim 9
  • Conventional form of Profit & Loss Account Revenues less: costs of goods sold (COGS), incl. raw Generation of profit materials, direct labour, ... Result of sales and Gross margin costs of providing goods/services less: operating expenses, incl. admin, marketing, depreciation, ... Operating profit (EBIT) Interest (income and expense) Distribution of profit Tax State Net income Banks Shareholders Dividends Retained profit Tarek Fahim 10
  • Common profit measures Profit measure Definition Benefits/commentsGross margin Revenues • When comparing companies, be sure to less: Cost Of Goods Sold understand what’s in COGSEBITDA Gross margin • Often used as approximation of cash flow,Earnings before interest, tax, less: operating expenses, except e.g. in Discounted Cash Flow analysisdepreciation and amortisation depreciation and amortisationEBITA EBITDA • Safe bet when doing cross-borderEarnings before interest, tax and less: depreciation comparisons, given treatment of amortisationamortisation in different countriesEBIT EBITA • This is what most people mean when theyEarnings before interest and tax less: amortisation say “operating profit" or: Gross margin less operating expensesNOPAT EBIT • After tax measure of operating profitNet operating profit after tax less: tax • Often used in financial ratiosPBT EBIT • Used by some companies as key profitProfit before tax less: interest measureNet income EBIT • “The bottom line” less: interest and tax • Profit that goes to shareholders • Used for earnings per share and P/E multiples Tarek Fahim 11
  • What to look for in a P&L Cost and Margin Cost and Margin Trends Trends Discontinuities Discontinuities structure structureBy comparing one year to the These can draw your Looking at individual linenext, it is possible to tell attention to areas where the items, it is possible to gain • Whether a company is company was making change insight into the cost and growing or contracting or decisions. This focus can margin structure of a • Whether or not it has aid in understanding company improved efficiency • What a company’s • What is the breakdown • How it may do in the operating strategy is between fixed and future, based on • How competitors’, variable costs? qualitative or extrapolated suppliers’ or customers’ • How much overhead does values behaviour has affected a the company carry? company • What is its operatingTrends may also provide margin?insight into • Does it have high interest • Changes in supply or expenses? demand • The competitive environment • The broader economy Tarek Fahim 12
  • P&L walk-through Tarek Fahim 13
  • FS ReviewThe Profit And Loss AccountThe Cash Flow StatementThe Balance Sheet Tarek Fahim 14
  • Cash Flow Statement reports inflows and outflows of cashduring a period Cash flows generated/paid out during the 1. Operating normal course of the business Cash Flows • Eg receipts from customers, payments to suppliers Cash flows generated/paid out from dealing with Total Cash 2. Investing investments or fixed assets Flows + Cash Flows • Eg purchase of plant/machinery, proceeds from sale of investments Cash flows associated with the funding of the 3. Financing assets of the business Cash Flows • Eg proceeds from bank loan, dividends paid to shareholders Tarek Fahim 15
  • Difference between Cash Flow Statement and P&LP&L adjusts by allocating income and costs tothe year in which they theoretically occur: • Fixed assets: cash flow statement registers when fixed assets are paid; P&L shows when they are used • Taxes: cash flow statement shows when you send a cheque to the tax man; P&L shows when they are theoretically generated • Other differences include provisions, accounts payable/receivable, ...Companies pay taxes and are assessed forprofitability based on figures in the P&L The P&L focuses on profitability, while the cash flow statement focuses on liquidity Tarek Fahim 16
  • Uses of the Cash Flow Statement• Management uses a forecast of cash flows • When a company is growing, it may need more cash • When a company is in financial difficulty, it may have to convince suppliers that it will be able to pay the bills• Lenders want to know if cash flows are adequate to pay interest on debt and repay the principal when it becomes due• Shareholders want to know about adequacy of cash flow to pay dividends • Private equity investors are particularly interested in cash flow! Tarek Fahim 17
  • What to look for in a Cash Flow Statement?• Timing of key events • The cash flow statement is the only financial statement which provides a clear picture of when cash actually enters or exits the business • For projections, a key measure is often when a company or project becomes cash flow positive• Mix of sources and uses of cash • Provides insight into how a company operates – how does the company finance capacity expansions? – what are the major cash drains on the company?• Ability to cover costs • Measures like cash flow interest coverage are useful here• Value of the company • Many analysts will value a company based on the net present value of its cash flows Tarek Fahim 18
  • Cash Flow Statement walk-through Tarek Fahim 19
  • FS ReviewThe Profit And Loss AccountThe Cash Flow StatementThe Balance Sheet Tarek Fahim 20
  • The Infamous Balance Formula Total Liabilities Total Equities Total Assets Tarek Fahim 21
  • The Balance Sheet is a snapshot of a company’sfinancial position Represents financial picture as it stands on one particular day, e.g. 31 December, 2007 Balance sheet Liabilities • Obligations or legal debts due – Suppliers Assets – Banks • Goods, property and financial assets owned (net of = – Revenue & Customs depreciation) Shareholder’s Equity • The amount left over after liabilities are subtracted from assets What is owned? How is it financed? Tarek Fahim 22
  • Movement in the Balance Sheet can be seen in the P&L Balance Sheet: 31 Dec 2006 P&L: 2007 Balance Sheet: 31 Dec 2007 Profit Profit Liability Liability Assets = = Revenue Expenses Assets Equity Equity Profit = Equity Tarek Fahim 23
  • Assets can be classified into a number of different categories Cash And Cash Equivalents Receivables Current Investments Usually converted to Inventories cash within 12 months Assets + Other Property, Plant And Equipment Tangible Investments Non-current Intangible Other Physical or intellectual/ non-physical assets Tarek Fahim 24
  • Liabilities are claims by creditors on the resources(assets) of a firm Key Classification Of Liabilities Interest-bearing Accounts Payable Liabilities Non-interest Bearing Provisions Liabilities Total Liabilities + Deferred Income Tax Contingent Liabilities Liability Off-balance Sheet Financing Tarek Fahim 25
  • Like assets, liabilities can be divided into current and non-current Element Definition ExampleCurrent Liabilities Liabilities that will require settlement (in Short term debt cash or otherwise) within 12 months of Accounts payable the balance sheet dateNon-current Liabilities which are longer term in Long term debtLiabilities nature, ie those which will not require Provision for deferred tax settlement within the next 12 months Tarek Fahim 26
  • Equity is the residual after all claims against the firm’sassets have been satisfied Assets Liabilities Equity Tarek Fahim 27
  • Microsoft Has NO Debt ! Major U.S. companies ranked by debt to total capital Two key reasons Microsoft has no debt 1 Microsoft is a cash rich company able to fund itself from its own operations 2 Software companies typically have very low debt levels • WC dominates software companies’ balance sheets • Fixed asset requirements are low • Therefore, debt is minimal The other companies all have much larger fixed costs (production facilities, branch outlets, etc.) making it difficult to rely on equity alone. Tarek Fahim 28
  • Balance Sheet walk-through Tarek Fahim 29
  • P&L and Cash Flow Statement are part of the Balance Sheet• Balance sheet is an amalgamation of many different accounts, incl. equipment, fleet, property, fuel, cash, payables, receivables, loans, shareholders’ equity ...• Every business transaction is recorded in two accounts: • A change in one asset must result in a change in another asset or a change in liabilities or equity • This is called double entry book-keeping• The majority of transactions affect either cash or shareholders’ equity • The cash account is called Cash Flow Statement • The shareholders’ equity account is called P&L Tarek Fahim 30
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 31
  • Ratio Analysis can be divided into five key ‘Buckets’ Financial Ratio Analysis PurposeDescription How much How much How hard is Does the With what profit is the profit is a the company proportion business business company have of debt or generating generating working its enough shareholder relative to relative to assets? short-term s’ equity is its asset its sales? funds to the business base? How finance its funding its efficiently is operating assets? it managing require- • Earnings its ments? and assets inventories/ must be receivables consistent ? Tarek Fahim 32
  • Using BoY versus EoY Balance Sheet Entries Can Make aBig Difference Example: Return on Assets. “Return” Income statement Σ = 4 ROA based on: BOY AVG EOY 4 4 4 “Assets” 30 40 50 13% 10% 8% Balance 50 sheet 30 Which is correct? Average Tarek Fahim 33
  • 1Ratio Analysis (Performance Ratios)Acronym Title Definition Typical values Comments ROA Return on assets After-tax, 3% to 25% Expected to be stable. Increases are Return depending on company good. As assets age, measure may Avg total assets and industry increase without true economic gains ROE Return on equity -5% to 30% depending Expected to be stable. Increases are Return on company, industry, good. Due to leverage, numbers are Avg shareholder’s and leverage often erratic equity EVA % Percent of -10% to 10% depending Expected to be stable. Increases are economic value NOPAT - Cap Chrg on company and good. As assets age, measure may added Avg capital industry increase without true economic gains (EVA Spread) employed Tarek Fahim 34
  • 2 Ratio Analysis (Profitability Ratios)Acronym Title Definition Typical values Comments GM % Gross margin 40% to 60% depending Expected to be stable. High numbers percentage Rev - COGS on product, company are good. Increases are good. Revenue and industry Influenced by competition significantly and costsEBITDA % Earnings before 20% to 35% depending Expected to be stable. High numbers interest tax EBITDA on product, company are good. Should increase depreciation and Revenue and industry significantly with scale. Significantly amor. margin influenced by competition and costsOp margin Operating margin 10% to 30% depending Expected to be stable. High numbers % NOPAT on product, company are good. Should increase Revenue and industry significantly with scale. Significantly influenced by competition and costs SGA % Selling general and 5% to 20% depending on Should decline significantly with scale Sales admin as % of sales SG&A product, company and Revenue industryNet income Net income margin 5% to 25% depending on Expected to be stable. High numbers % Net Income product, company and are good. Increases are good Revenue industry Influenced by competition significantly and costs Tarek Fahim 35
  • 3Ratio Analysis (Productivity Ratios)Acronym Title Definition Typical Values CommentsA/R days Account receivable 30-90 depending on Expected to be steady if properly days outstanding Avg Recv company, industry and managed. Decreases are good. x365 Revenue country Usually a function of terms and active managementA/P days Account payable 20 to 65 depending on Expected to be stable. Increases are days outstanding Avg Payables company, industry and good. If number get too large the x365 Purchases country company is having trouble and/or their suppliers are not happyInv turns 4x to 15x depending on Expected to be stable and decreasing. company and industry Will vary with seasonal businesses. If (INVx) COGS Inventory turns too low, products get old, and or Avg Inventory company is having sales troubles Tarek Fahim 36
  • DuPONT Analysis Disaggregate Key Performance Ratios IntoTheir Underlying Business Drivers Profit margin How much earnings are being Return generated from sales? Sales What type of business is it Return on assets • High volume, low margin • High margin, low volume Return Total Assets x Asset turnover Return on equity How hard is the business working its assets? Sales Return x Depends on type of industry Total Assets Shareholders’ Equity E/A ratio Total Assets How is the business financing its assets? Shareholders’ Equity How much debt is the business using relative to shareholders’ funds? Tarek Fahim 37
  • DuPONT Analysis - Level 1 ROE What return is the business generating What return is the from the resources business generating that it is using? for the funds that its shareholders have Return on assets contributed? Return(1) Total Assets Return on equity Return x Shareholders’ Equity E/A ratio How are the assets being Total Assets funded? Shareholders’ What magnification of Equity return (or loss) do we expect due to use of debt? Tarek Fahim 38
  • DuPONT Analysis – Level 2 ROA What return is the What are the costs business generating associated with the from the resources Profit margin products/ services a that it is using? company sells? Return( Sales Return on assets Return Total Assets x Asset turnover Return on equity Sales What does the Return company derive x from its assets? Total Assets Shareholders’ Equity E/A ratio Total Assets Shareholders’ Equity Tarek Fahim 39
  • Ratios Can Be Cascaded Down Below The Typical DuPontLevels Revenue Profit margin e.g., Revenue/Unit (Price) Return Sales f Cost e.g., Cost/Unit Inventory turnover Cost Of Goods Sold(2) ROA Average Inventory Asset turnover Receivables turnover Sales Sales Total Assets f Average Receivables Fixed asset turnover Sales Average Fixed Assets Tarek Fahim 40
  • Displaying Driver Trees Over Time Often Provides AdditionalInsight - Example: Profit Growth Lagging Increases in Capital Employed NOPAT margin (%) Delta 1.6% NOPAT ($M) CAGR 11.8% Return on capital is X declining Sales ($M) CAGR 5.8% Year Return on capital (%) Change (6.2) % Growth in capital ÷ Net working capital ($M) CAGR N/A employed has significantly outpaced profit growth Year Capital employed ($M) CAGR 23.5% + Total fixed capital ($M) CAGR 21.8% CAGR 21.8% Year Driven by a constant Year increase in fixed capital Tarek Fahim 41
  • 4 Ratio Analysis (Liquidity Ratios) Acronym Title Definition Typical values Comments WC Working Capital Accts receivables Greater than zero Not technically a ratio but related to + inventory liquidity, working capital is the margin - accts payable of current assets over current liabilities OR that a firm maintains C. Assets - C. LiabCurrent ratio Current Ratio 1.0 - 2.0 Measures ability to pay current liabilities from current assets. Should Depends on the industry Current Assets be stable. A higher ratio means lower and activity cycle Current Liab risk but, too high a ratio could indicate excess inventory or failure to collect paymentQuick ratio Quick Ratio 0.2 - 1.0 Similar to current ratio but more accurate. Excludes less liquid assets Cash + Marketable Depends on the industry such as inventories. Answers the Securities + A/R and activity cycle question: “if sales stopped, could this Current Liab. firm meet its obligations with readily accessible assets on hand?” Tarek Fahim 42
  • 5Ratio Analysis (Capital Structure Ratios)Acronym Title Definition Typical values Comments D/E Debt to Equity Ratio 0.2-1.0 depending on the Commonly used to indicate bankruptcy industry and company risk, the higher the ratio, the riskier the Balance sheet debt company Shareholders Equity D/A Debt to Asset Ratio 0.1 - 0.5 depending on Measures the proportion of a firms the industry and assets that are funded by debt Balance sheet debt company Total Assets Tarek Fahim 43
  • Let’s Crunch Some Numbers: 2003-2005 Tarek Fahim 44
  • Ratio Analysis (Performance Ratios) : ROI - ROE Tarek Fahim 45
  • Performance Analysis !!• ROI curves are showing that both companies are doing very well, their numbers are very close to each other. Year 2004 shows a small drop for both that was recovered very soon in year 2005.• ROE, in the contrary is very different between both companies. We can observe that ROE of Mobinil is much higher that ROE of Vodafone. The numbers in 2005 are 93% (Mobinil) and 56% (Vodafone). It is very clear that this difference is due primarily to the big financial leverage Mobinil practiced. Tarek Fahim 46
  • Ratio Analysis (Profitability Ratios) : Tarek Fahim 47
  • Profitability Analysis !!• Mobinil is better managing its COGS than Vodafone (Know why ?)• Vodafone has higher Net Income Margin than Mobinil due to its financing strategy. Tarek Fahim 48
  • Ratio Analysis (Productivity Ratios) : A/R Days – Inv Turns X Tarek Fahim 49
  • Productivity Analysis !!• Days in account receivable amount is decreasing for both companies which indicates that the efficiency of the account receivable department is improving. However, this amount is much less in Mobinil than Vodafone, which either means Mobinil is doing better in collecting the money or Vodafone is using a longer credit terms.• Vodafone is better managing its inventories while Mobinil Inventory turnover is decreasing. Tarek Fahim 50
  • Ratio Analysis (Liquidity Ratios) : WC – Current ratio Tarek Fahim 51
  • Liquidity Analysis !!• It is clear from the numbers that Mobinil and Vodafone are not having much liquidity to cover their liabilities. Current ratio is below 1 and declining, acid test ratio is even below 0.5.• It is clear from the charts that Vodafone did a better job than Mobinil to reduce this shortage in liquidity in year 2005, as their ratios improved a little bit, while Mobinil’s ratios are getting worse Tarek Fahim 52
  • Ratio Analysis (Capital Structure Ratios) : D/A – D/E ratios Tarek Fahim 53
  • Capital Structure Analysis !!• From Debt/Equity chart, it is easy to tell that Mobinil is taking big risks as this ratio reached 3.2 in year 2005. Vodafone is taking less and more consistent risk.• Mobilinil is highly leveraged compared to Vodafone. Tarek Fahim 54
  • Ratio Analysis (Investment) : EPS – P/E ratios Tarek Fahim 55
  • Investment Analysis !!• Vodafone’s P/E ratio was higher than Mobinil’s on year 2003 and 2004, while Mobinil succeeded to achieve a better result in year 2005.• P/E ratio shows how much people are willing to pay for a stock. Tarek Fahim 56
  • Linking Financial Ratios to Balanced Scorecards (I) • The balanced scorecard is a way for managers to view the organization from four interrelated perspectives of operational drivers for future performance: • Financial perspective. How are we doing using traditional financial performance measures?1 How do shareholders view us?2 • Customer perspective. How satisfied are our customers?3 • Internal perspective. What ways do we, and in what ways should we, excel?4 • Innovation and improvement perspective. How can we continue to improve and create value in the future? Tarek Fahim 57
  • Linking Financial Ratios to Balanced Scorecards (II)• The balanced scorecard is linked to the Financial ratios and the budget process in the following ways: • It highlights leading indicators, such as new product development, customer complaints, or direct mail response rates, instead of only sales or cost figures • It balances the four perspectives so that, for example, pressure to develop new products doesn’t overshadow the need for quality products and customer satisfaction • It helps management to communicate strategic goals and mission to all the stakeholders in the organization Tarek Fahim 58
  • Balanced Scorecards 9 Steps Method Tarek Fahim 59
  • Enron Case !! Tarek Fahim 60
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 61
  • Time Value of Money Money that the firm has today is more valuable than future payments because current money can be invested to earn money Tarek Fahim 62
  • Time Value of Money Money that the firm has today is more valuable than future payments because current money can be invested to earn money Compounding Future ValueEnd of Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Present Value Discounting Tarek Fahim 63
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 64
  • Capital Budgeting The process of evaluating and selecting long- term investments consistent with the firm’s goal of owner wealth maximization Tarek Fahim 65
  • Business Decisions Expansion of Operations Replacement of Assets Key Motives for CapEx Other Purposes as MKTG Renewal of Assets Tarek Fahim 66
  • Capital Budgeting Process 1 Proposal Generation 2 Review & Analysis 3 Decision Making 4 Implementation 5 Follow Up Tarek Fahim 67
  • Relevant Cash Flows Initial Operating Cash Terminal Cash Investment Flows Flow Terminal Cash Operating Cash Flows Flow End of Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Initial Investment Tarek Fahim 68
  • Time To Play ! Tarek Fahim 69
  • Payback Period The exact amount of time required for a firm to cover its initial investment in a project as calculated from cash inflows Tarek Fahim 70
  • Payback Decision Terminal Cash Operating Cash Flows FlowEnd of Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Initial Investment Payback Period Less than Acceptable Period Greater than Acceptable Period Accept Reject 71 Tarek Fahim 71
  • Net Present Value A sophisticated capital budgeting technique found by subtracting a project’s initial investment from the present value of its cash inflows discounted at the firm’s cost of capital Tarek Fahim 72
  • Net Present Value Decision (NPV) Terminal Cash Operating Cash Flows FlowEnd of Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Initial Investment Discounted at the cost of capital NPV Greater than Zero Less than Zero Accept Reject Tarek Fahim 73
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 74
  • Valuation… Discounted MultiplesAssets based Cash based Valuation Flow Valuation Valuation (DCF) Most simple Most accurate Tarek Fahim 75
  • Let’s Play Again Tarek Fahim 76
  • The Framework FS Review Financial Ratio Analysis Time Value Capital Budgeting & Decision Making Valuation Investment & Portfolio Management Tarek Fahim 77
  • The Chinese symbols for risk The first symbol is the symbol for “danger”, while the second is the symbol for “opportunity”, making risk a mix of danger and opportunity Tarek Fahim 78
  • Portfolio Components Land Stocks Real Estate Mutual Funds Bonds Portfolio Management Currencies Cars Ownerships Partnerships Cash Tarek Fahim 79
  • Portfolio Management Definition The process of managing the assets, including choosing and monitoring appropriate investments and allocating funds accordingly Tarek Fahim 80
  • Portfolio Management Goals Maximize Profitability of Portfolio Maximize Value of Portfolio Portfolio Management Provide Balance between Risk and Support the Firm Strategy Return Tarek Fahim 81
  • Tips & Tricks• Diversification is a risk-management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio in order to minimize the impact that any one security will have on the the overall performance of the portfolio.• Diversification lowers the risk of your portfolio.• There are three main practices that can help you ensure the best diversification: • Spread your portfolio among multiple investment vehicles such as cash, stocks, bonds, mutual funds and perhaps even some real estate. • Vary the risk in your securities. • Vary your securities by industry. Tarek Fahim 82
  • Portfolio Management Sheet Tarek Fahim 83
  • Final Word… Tarek Fahim 84
  • Thanks... Tarek Fahim 85