W. Swain, Sustitución Fijo Móvil


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W. Swain, Sustitución Fijo Móvil

  1. 1. Sus2tución  Fijo  Móvil   W.  Swain   12  June  2012  Page  1   ©  Copyright  2012  
  2. 2. Agenda   §  Big  Themes   §  General  Framework   §  Why  is  MBB  growing  faster  than  FBB?   §  Is  MBB  a  subs2tute  or  complement  for   FBB?   §  Conclusions  Page  2   ©  Copyright  2012  
  3. 3. Mobile Internet projected to exceed 10 billion units/ devices by 2016 Opportunity ü  Yankee  Group  predicts  that  the   total  mobile  service  market   (line  subscrip2ons)  will  exceed   $1  trillion  by  2014   Desktop Internet ü  Yankee  Group  forecasts  that   1 Billion+ Units/Devices the  mobile  connected  devices  PC market  (phones,  tablets  and     e-­‐readers)  will  exceed  $435  100 Million+ Units billion  by  2014       ü  Yankee  Group  predicts  that   revenues  from  mobile  apps,   cloud  and  adver2zing  will  grow   New Mobile   to  $340  billion  by  2014   Economy ü  Yankee  Group  forecasts  the   growth  in  the  value  of     mobile  transac2ons  worldwide   Page  3   ©  Copyright  2012   will  increase  to  $984  billion     by  2014  
  4. 4. Text  to  Speech  to  Video  1850 1880 1960 1990 2000 2011 Increasing  Bandwidth   Communica9on  modes  do  not  disappear  but  costs  are   transformed  by  technology  and  prices  fall  towards  costs  e.g. Letters to Telegraph to Telex to Fax to Email to SMS to Instant Messaging Page  4   ©  Copyright  2012  
  5. 5. Shared  Experiences  To  Personal  Experiences   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 68% Live  TV 59% 17% Game  Console 10% 48% PC/Laptop 32% Between 48% and Video Users Mobile  Phone 26% 93% of those under 19% % who use Under  2 5 Digital  audio/MP3  Player 12% 25 use personal device at least 7% Total devices at least once once per day Tablet 5% Over  2 5 5% per day for video 3% Handheld  Game  Console 2% content Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents OnlyPage  5   ©  Copyright  2012  
  6. 6. Defined  Place  to  Any  Place   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 70% User-­‐generated  videos 54% 36% Clips  from  TV  shows 20% 35% of those 14% Full  e pisodes  of  TV  shows under 25 watch 18% Video Use on a 14% full-length Full-­‐length  m ovies Mobile Phone 7% content on their 7% mobile phones HD  programming     5% Under  2 5 21% None  of  t he  above Total 29% Over  2 5 Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents OnlyPage  6   ©  Copyright  2012  
  7. 7. Defined  Time  to  Any  Time   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 68% Live  TV 59% Video Users % who use 1 in 5 use DVRs device at least 15% daily once per day DVR  /  Time  Shifted Under  25 22% Total Over  25 Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents OnlyPage  7   ©  Copyright  2012  
  8. 8. Combining  these  trends  favors  Mobile/Wireless  Delivery  for  Video  Content   Defined  Time  to  Any2me  Means  I  Want  It  With  Me   Defined  Place  to  Any  Place   Mobile  TV  or  OTT  TV  on  a   Mobile  TV  or  OTT  TV  on  a   Tablet,  Laptop  or  Large   Smartphone   Screen  Smartphone   IPTV  or  OTT  TV  over  Fixed   Linear  TV  in  the  Living  Room   Broadband    or  WiFi   Shared  to  Personal   Latin Americans are more social so the need for Shared experiences in Defined Places will persist longer.Page  8   ©  Copyright  2012  
  9. 9. Driver  for  Broadband  Growth  is  Video  Although  many  other   Internet  Traffic  in  PB  per  Monthapplica2ons  like  Social   70,000Networking  or  Voip  command  acen2on,  the   60,000 58,214driver  of  data  traffic  is  Video  in  both  Fixed  and  Mobile   50,000 43,772 OtherNetworks.   Voice  over  IP  (VoIP) 40,000Indeed,  we  might  not  need   Web,  email,  and  data 32,973 Online  gamingnew  mobile  technologies  like   File  sharing 30,000LTE  were  it  not  for  the   24,477 Video  callingexplosive  growth  of  Video   20,000 17,867 Internet  video Totalover  Mobile  Networks  both   12,528via  smartphones  and  via   10,000dongles  /  modems  /  tablets.     0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Cisco Global VNI, 2012Page  9   ©  Copyright  2012  
  10. 10. And  Mobile  Video  Traffic  Grows  As  Well   Just  in  H2/2011,   YouTube  grew  100%   and  HD  YouTube  grew   300%   Video  Streaming   grew    over  9x    Source: Allot Communications, Global Mobile Broadband Traffic Report H2/2011 Page  10   ©  Copyright  2012  
  11. 11. General  Framework  Page  11   Source:  Yankee  Group  ConnectedView  Mar  2012   ©  Copyright  2012  
  12. 12. General  Framework  Page  12   Source:  Yankee  Group  ConnectedView  Mar  2012   ©  Copyright  2012  
  13. 13. General  Framework  Page  13   Source:  FCC,  Yankee  Group  ConnectedView,  Yankee  Group  Mobile   ©  Copyright  2012   Carrier  Monitor  Mar  2012  
  14. 14. Telecommunica2ons  Revenue  Mix  Tradi2onal  Fixed  Telecom   Latin  America  TEF  Revenues  (Share  of  Total)revenues  will  flacen  in  terms   100%of  share  although  obviously  con2nue  to  grow  somewhat   90%in  absolute  terms  thanks  to  Corporate  Data  and  Fixed   80%Broadband.     70%PayTV  is  the   fixed  service  with  the  greatest  poten2al,   60% M2M Mobile  D atadriven  mostly  by  DTH  –  a   Mobile  Voice wireless  service.   50% Pay  TVThis  tendency  is  even   Fixed  Broadbandstronger  in  the  graphs  for   40% Fixed  VoiceBrazil  and  Mexico.   Corporate   Data 30%We  project  that  Voice  ARPUs  will  con2nue  to  fall  driven   20%primarily  by  lower  rates,    meaning  that  the  share  of   10%Data  Revenues  will  con2nue  to  grow.     0%   2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Yankee Group Latin American Forecast, 2012Page  14   ©  Copyright  2012  
  15. 15. Why  is  MBB  Growing  Faster  than  FBB?  Demand   Shared  to  Personal   Defined  Place  to  Any  Place   Defined  Time  to  Any  Time   Wait  for  Service  vs  NOW!   Contract  vs  Prepaid   2  to  6  Mbps  vs  42Mbps!!!  Page  15   ©  Copyright  2012  
  16. 16. Mobile Broadband Cannibalization" (USB modems, U.K. market data, Q1 2010) ! Comparison: All 9% 6% In Italy 34% of MBB 15-­‐24 12% 11% users do not use landline BB 25-­‐34 10% 11% Source: Between – Broadband Report 35-­‐54 11% 6% Age   July 2010, Company 55-­‐64 6% 2% data 65-­‐74 2% 1% 75+ 1% Fixed  and  mobile  broadband AB 14% 5% Mobile  broadband  only C1 10% 6%Socio-­‐Economic  Group   C2 8% 6% DE 4% 8% Own/mortgage 10% 3% Housing   Rent-­‐private 7% 15% Rent-­‐government 5% 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percentage  of    Household  Take-­‐up   Page  16   fcom  Communica@ons  Market  report,  August  2010.  Survey  base:  Consumers  aged  15  and  older  (n  =  9,013)   Source:  O ©  Copyright  2012  
  17. 17. Why  is  MBB  Growing  Faster  than  FBB?  Supply   Lots of evidence that carriers (LA and elsewhere) are cutting back FBB investment (except FTTx) • No announcements of new ADLS2+ investments and none for VDSL • Few offers above 6Mbps or very restricted geographically • Poor quality Outside Plant means upgrading CO equipment isn t the only cost • Tier 1 vendors selling off their FBB businesses • Bundling MBB with FBB, encouraging adoption of MBBPage  17   ©  Copyright  2012  
  18. 18. Telefonica  Broadband  Offers  Usually  Look  Becer   in  MBB  Than  FBB   Shown  here  are  the  range  of   Speed Range Telefonica Broadband Offers and Entry Prices speeds  for  FBB  and  the   0 5 10 15 20 25 Headline  speed  for  MBB.   Argentina  FBB US$18.00 Prices  are  for  the  cheapest   Argentina  MBB US$8.09 Postpaid  plan.   Brazil  FBB US$29.76   Brazil  MBB US$16.21 In  AR,  BR  and  CO  the  best  FBB  is   Chile  FBB US$54.35 faster  than  the  best  MBB,   although  in  BR  they  are   close   Chile  MBB US$25.05 and  in  AR,  CO  an  upgrade  to  just   Colombia  FBB US$42.26 HSPA  would  eliminate  the  gap.  In   Colombia  MBB US$12.87 CL  and  PE  the  opposite  is  true.   Ecuador  FBB No  Fixed  Network (There  is  no  Telefonica  FBB  in  EC,   Ecuador  MBB US$19.00 MX  or  VE.)   Mexico  FBB No  Fixed  Network   Mexico  MBB US$14.87 Headline  prices  for  entry  level   Peru  FBB US$47.70 plans  are  always  cheaper  in  MBB   Peru  MBB US$20.42 although  caps  make  the  customer   experience  completely  different.     Venezuela  FBB No  Fixed  Network FBB  plans  are  always  unlimited   Venezuela  MBB US$8.27 and  o_en  include  Voice.  Source: Websites, Yankee Group 2012 NOTE: PE is HSPA+ but local regulation prohibits use of 21Mbps “headline” Page  18   ©  Copyright  2012  
  19. 19. Is  MBB  Really  a  Subs2tute  for  FBB?   HSPA+,  DC-­‐HSPA  and  LTE  are  becoming  more  efficient  every  day  –   higher  speeds  and  more  capacity  at  lower  cost.   CPE  prices  are  already  compe99ve  (at  least  for  HSPA+  and  DC-­‐HSPA)   Overcome  the  problems  of  bad  copper   If  all  users  in  a  sector  are  streaming  HD  video,  capacity  will  exhaust   very  quickly.   Number  of  users  per  sector  harder  to  predict  than  number  of  users   per  DSLAM  Page  19   ©  Copyright  2012  
  20. 20. Is  MBB  Really  a  Subs2tute  for  FBB?   §  Incumbent  Fixed  and  Mobile  Operator  in   Denmark   §  LTE  Tes2ng  completed  in  2.6Mhz  in  May  2010   §  Launched  in  10  ci2es  October  2011   §  Delay  from  problems  with  2G/3G  handover   §  Pleased  with  LTE  performance   §  Looking  at  1800Mhz  and  800Mhz  (auc2on   03/12)   §  Doesn t  view  FBB  /  MBB  as  binary  choice  –   complements  not  subs2tutes   §  Both  strategies  require  deep  fiber   investments  Source: Yankee Group 2011 Page  20   ©  Copyright  2012  
  21. 21. Is  MBB  Really  a  Subs2tute  for  FBB?   MBB   YES   or   Rural?   MBB   FBB?   NO   Low   Fringe   YES   YES   Subs   MBB   Urban?   Density?   NO   NO   MBB   +   DTH   High  HD   NO   YES   MBB   RT   V.  Hi   Video?   Income   FTTH  Page  21   ©  Copyright  2012  
  22. 22. The  Challenge  is  Video  Esp.  Real  Time  and  HD   If all traffic were just “normal” Internet, latency and capacity issues would be more tolerable. The problem is Real Time i.e. Event TV, especially HD channels which require 4-6Mbps each nearly dedicated. That means a 42Mbps sector would saturate with only 7 to 10 active users. Video conferencing has similar challengesNew multicast LTE technologies (e.g. byQualacomm) will eventually aleviate the LinearTV issue but only in 3-5 years.The answer is not to deliver Linear HD TV over theInternet but via Satellite TV.Normal Internet would use MBB. Page  22   ©  Copyright  2012  
  23. 23. What  could  change  about  this  impera9ve?  What  could  impede  it?   §  Lack  of  spectrum  could  prevent  operators  from   responding  to  the  growth  in  broadband  using   Mobile  Broadband   §  A  similar  issue  is  the  backlash  against  towers  –   an  advantage  of  copper-­‐based  solu2ons  is  that   they  don t  go  up  100m  into  the  skyline.  Small   cell  architectures  are  the  mi2ga2ng  strategy.   §  Tiered  plans  and  high  tariffs  could  definitely   put  a  break  on  this  trend  –  or  shim  it  to  WiFi   §  FBB  in  La2n  America  is  s2ll  Flat  Rate  /  Unlimited   Page  23   ©  Copyright  2012  
  24. 24. Conclusions  §  MBB  has  overtaken  FBB  in  La2n  America  and   Revenues  will  soon  follow  §  The  driver  for  whether  MBB  truly  subs2tutes  for  FBB   is  VIDEO  not  Internet   §  If  all  users  needed  to  do  was  non-­‐video  Internet,  FBB   would  be  DEAD  §  Both  FBB  and  MBB  have  their  roles  in  a  na2onal   broadband  policy   §  Video  usage  and  subscriber  density  are  the  drivers  §  Caps  and  high  tariffs  could  impede  growth  of  MBB  Page  24   ©  Copyright  2012  
  25. 25. ¡Gracias!   ¿Preguntas?   W.  Swain   Managing  Partner,  C3  Comunicaciones  SAS     SVP  Emerging  Markets,  Yankee  Group   wswain@yankeegroup.com   wswainla@gmail.com   www.MacondoTelecom.net     @WSYGLA  Page  25   ©  Copyright  2012