A study on carbon dioxide emission in relation to agricultural growth and food security in india

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This is the presentation made by Gourav Kumar Vani in International conference on Crop Productivity and Sustainability-shaping the future-2014 held in Baba Farid College, Bhatinda.

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A study on carbon dioxide emission in relation to agricultural growth and food security in india

  1. 1. A STUDY ON CO2 EMISSION IN RELATION TO AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA G.S. Mahadevaiah, Gunjan Bhandari and Gourav Kumar Vani From UAS, GKVK, Bangalore
  2. 2. • 1.2 billion people of India growing at the rate of 1.76 % per annum. • India has 52.8 % of population depending on Agriculture. • To assure Food Security to the people of nation India needs to maintain the growth in Agriculture. • Growth in Agriculture till now is achieved by intensive cultivation and extensive cultivation practices. INTRODUCTION 3/22/2014 2
  3. 3. • So to increase the agricultural production per unit of land available, we need to apply more of inputs both material inputs ( such as Fertilizer) and non material inputs ( such as Services). • But increase in these activities is linked to increased emission from Agriculture and other sectors of Economy. • Thus at a time when india is third largest emitter of Green House Gases, India has to worry more about it because it caused Global Warming/ Climate Change. 3/22/2014 3
  4. 4. • Global warming/Climate Change will increase the temperature leading to loss in Agricultural productivity and also the net revenue from Agriculrure . • ICAR studied the impact of climate change on Agriculture and concluded that “net agriculture revenue would decline by 12.3 percent if temperature increases by 2 degree Celsius and rainfall decreases by just 7 percent”. • Hence it is required to determine the impact on Agriculture and food security of this climate change. 3/22/2014 4
  5. 5. Food Security Climate Change Agriculture Poverty 3/22/2014 5
  6. 6. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY • Present study had two objectives 1. To study the short term relationship between agriculture and climate change in India. 2. To analyze the impact of climate change on food security. 3/22/2014 6
  7. 7. METHODOLOGY • Data: Time series data (1960-61 to 2010-11). • Source: World Bank Development Indicators web site, RBI Hand Book of Indian Economy 2012, Data Portal of Govt. of India. • Variables: Carbon Emission, Poverty Rate and Agricultural GDP were used as proxy for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture respectively. • Analytical Tools: compound annual growth rate (CAGR), percentage, regression analysis 3/22/2014 7
  8. 8. • Regression analysis was performed for following regression equations 1.CO2=b0+b1*AgGDP+b2*ManufGDP+b3*ServiceGDP+e1 2. AgGDP=b0+b1*CO2+e2 3. Temp= b0+b1*CO2+e3 Co2: Carbon Emission from India per capita; (000’ kt) AgGDP#: Agricultural GDP per capita of India; ManufGDP#: Manufacturing GDP per capita of India; ServiceGDP#: Service Sector GDP per capita of India; Temp: Mean Annual Temperature of India (degree Celsius). • #(Rs.000’ crore at 2004-05 constant prices) 3/22/2014 8
  9. 9. RESULTS Years Poverty rate@ Carbon emission ^ Share of agriculture in GDP@ Ag GDP# 93-94 45.3 864.93 28.27 429.98 04 to 05 37.2 1411.13 18.81 565.423 09 to 10 29.8 2008.82 17.98 660.99 CAGR -2.58 5.41 -2.78 2.72 Doubling period or half period 27 years 13 years 25 years 26 years Table No. 1: Compound Annual Growth Rates #(Rs.000’ crore at 2004-05 constant prices),^ (000’ kt), @(%) 3/22/2014 9
  10. 10. INTERPRETION • 100% increase in Carbon emission will reduce poverty rate by 11.72 % points. • 100% increase in agricultural GDP will reduce poverty rate by 28.85 percent points from 2009-10 level. 3/22/2014 10
  11. 11. RESULTS CO2 AgGDP Temp. Intercept -527.39* (250.74) 371.46*** (6.11) 24.05*** (0.05) CO2 - 0.12*** (0.007) 5.07e-07*** (6.04e-08) AgGDP 1.32 (0.66) - - ManufGDP 4.41*** (1.16) - - ServiceGDP -0.57 (0.29) - - R2 Adjusted 0.949 0.86 0.5864 F statistic 309.128*** 310.4*** 70.48*** 3/22/2014 11 Significance Codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ Figures in parenthesis indicate standard error. Table No. 2: Results of Regression Analysis
  12. 12. INTERPRETATION • Cent percent increase in carbon emission from 2009-10 level will reduce poverty by 11.72 percent points. • This implies that increased carbon emission will lead to an increase of approximately 2 degree Celsius in mean annual temperature. • Then mean annual temperature will increase to 26.1 degree Celsius. This will reduce net agricultural revenue by 12.3 percent. 3/22/2014 12
  13. 13. Conclusion • it is evident that though in the short run agriculture sector does not seem to be harmed by increase in Carbon emission but in long run it will lead to decline in food security status by reducing affordability of poor to purchase food items. 3/22/2014 13
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