A study on carbon dioxide emission in relation to agricultural growth and food security in india
A STUDY ON CO2 EMISSION IN
RELATION TO AGRICULTURAL
GROWTH AND FOOD SECURITY IN
G.S. Mahadevaiah, Gunjan Bhandari
Gourav Kumar Vani
UAS, GKVK, Bangalore
• 1.2 billion people of India growing at the rate
of 1.76 % per annum.
• India has 52.8 % of population depending on
• To assure Food Security to the people of
nation India needs to maintain the growth in
• Growth in Agriculture till now is achieved by
intensive cultivation and extensive cultivation
• So to increase the agricultural production per
unit of land available, we need to apply more
of inputs both material inputs ( such as
Fertilizer) and non material inputs ( such as
• But increase in these activities is linked to
increased emission from Agriculture and other
sectors of Economy.
• Thus at a time when india is third largest
emitter of Green House Gases, India has to
worry more about it because it caused Global
Warming/ Climate Change.
• Global warming/Climate Change will increase
the temperature leading to loss in Agricultural
productivity and also the net revenue from
• ICAR studied the impact of climate change on
Agriculture and concluded that “net agriculture
revenue would decline by 12.3 percent if temperature
increases by 2 degree Celsius and rainfall decreases
by just 7 percent”.
• Hence it is required to determine the impact
on Agriculture and food security of this climate
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
• Present study had two objectives
1. To study the short term relationship between
agriculture and climate change in India.
2. To analyze the impact of climate change on
• Data: Time series data (1960-61 to 2010-11).
• Source: World Bank Development Indicators
web site, RBI Hand Book of Indian Economy
2012, Data Portal of Govt. of India.
• Variables: Carbon Emission, Poverty Rate and
Agricultural GDP were used as proxy for
Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture
• Analytical Tools: compound annual growth
rate (CAGR), percentage, regression analysis
• Regression analysis was performed for following
3. Temp= b0+b1*CO2+e3
Co2: Carbon Emission from India per capita; (000’ kt)
AgGDP#: Agricultural GDP per capita of India;
ManufGDP#: Manufacturing GDP per capita of India;
ServiceGDP#: Service Sector GDP per capita of India;
Temp: Mean Annual Temperature of India (degree Celsius).
• #(Rs.000’ crore at 2004-05 constant prices)
93-94 45.3 864.93 28.27 429.98
04 to 05 37.2 1411.13 18.81 565.423
09 to 10 29.8 2008.82 17.98 660.99
CAGR -2.58 5.41 -2.78 2.72
27 years 13 years 25 years 26 years
Table No. 1: Compound Annual Growth Rates
#(Rs.000’ crore at 2004-05 constant prices),^ (000’ kt), @(%)
• 100% increase in Carbon emission will reduce
poverty rate by 11.72 % points.
• 100% increase in agricultural GDP will reduce
poverty rate by 28.85 percent points from
• Cent percent increase in carbon emission from
2009-10 level will reduce poverty by 11.72
• This implies that increased carbon emission
will lead to an increase of approximately 2
degree Celsius in mean annual temperature.
• Then mean annual temperature will increase
to 26.1 degree Celsius. This will reduce net
agricultural revenue by 12.3 percent.
• it is evident that though in the short run
agriculture sector does not seem to be
harmed by increase in Carbon emission but in
long run it will lead to decline in food security
status by reducing affordability of poor to
purchase food items.