A study on Carbon Emission in relation to agricultural growth and food security
Theme: Economically viable approaches for advancement in
Sub-theme: Environment sustainability, agricultural growth
and food security.
A STUDY ON CO2 EMISSION IN RELATION TO
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND FOOD
SECURITY IN INDIA
, Gunjan Bhandari2
and Gourav Kumar Vani3
1. Assoc. Prof., 2. & 3. M.Sc. Students.
Dept. of Agricultural Economics, UAS, Bangalore,
The ongoing development process is continuously adding to
the pool of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Increasing CO2
level has been viewed as a mixed blessing for agriculture.
Although, it’s exact impact is not known but through global
warming it can have a direct bearing on food production.
ICAR report said that net agriculture revenue would decline
by 12.3 percent if temperature increases by 2 degree
Celsius and rainfall decreases by just 7 percent. Keeping this
in view, the present study attempts to find out the contribution
of the growth in three sectors of Indian economy viz.,
agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors to increased
CO2 emission and study its relation to agricultural GDP and
poverty(as a measure of food security). Secondary data for
fifty years and simple regression and tabular analysis have
been used for this purpose. The findings of the study indicate
that the CO2 emissions due to growth in agriculture are not
significant but increased CO2 emissions have resulted in
increased temperature. In the short run, agricultural
production seems to vary directly with CO2 emissions while
poverty decreases with increase in agricultural GDP and in
Key words: CO2, Agriculture, Poverty and Food Security
With a population of 1.2 billion growing at a rate of 1.76
percent, food security will continue to remain a major concern
for Indian economy. Ensuring food security requires
continuous agricultural growth. This is only possible under
favourable climatic conditions. It is proven fact worldwide
that increase in green house gas emission lead to increase in
temperature. Net agriculture revenue would decline by 12.3
percent if temperature changes by 2 degree Celsius and
rainfall by just 7 percent according to ICAR report6
This decline in revenue from agriculture will have cascading
effect on 52.8 percent of Indian population which directly and
indirectly depend on agriculture as source of livelihood. This
will impact the purchasing power and in turn food security
In this context a study was planned with the following
1. To study the short term relationship between
agriculture and climate change in India
2. To analyze the impact of climate change on food
Present study is based on time series data obtained from
World Bank Development Indicators web site5
, RBI Hand
Book of Indian Economy 20121
, Data Portal of Govt. of
. In order to carry out the study, carbon emission,
poverty rate and agricultural GDP were used as proxy for
climate change, food security and agriculture respectively.
Data was collected on contribution of different sectors in
GDP, CO2 emission from India, Poverty status in India, mean
annual temperature and population of India for a period of 50
years spanning from 1960-61 to 2010-11. Data on Poverty
status (at national poverty line) was only available for the
years 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. Tools used in the
analysis are compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2
percentage, regression analysis3
. Regression analysis was
performed for following regression equations
2. AgGDP=b0+b1*C O2+e2
3. Temp= b0+b1*CO2+e3
: Carbon Emission from India per capita;
: Agricultural GDP per capita of India;
: Manufacturing GDP per capita of India;
: Service Sector GDP per capita of India;
Temp: Mean Annual Temperature of India (degree Celsius).
Since, population has effect on all variables in present study
and therefore to remove the effect of increase in population it
is imperative to take the variables per capita.
Compound Annual Growth Rates were calculated for Poverty,
Co2 emission and share of Agriculture in GDP.
Formula to calculate CAGR is CAGR= 100*1
Where Vn: Value in nth year, V0: Value in initial year, n: no.
of years from initial to final value.
To calculate percentage points change in X per unit
percentage change in Y formula used is =
Table No. 1 shows the data on poverty, carbon emission, share
of Agriculture in GDP and Agricultural GDP. From CAGR it
can be observed that during 16 year period (1993-94 to 2009-
10) poverty and share of agriculture in GDP registered
negative growth of 2.58 and 2.79 percent per annum. While
carbon emission and value of agricultural GDP increased at a
rate of 5.41 and 2.72 percent per annum.
Table No. 1: Compound Annual Growth Rates
93-94 45.3 864.93 28.27 429.98
04 to 05 37.2 1411.13 18.81 565.423
09 to 10 29.8 2008.82 17.98 660.99
CAGR -2.58 5.41 -2.78 2.72
(Rs.000’ crore at 2004-05 constant prices)
If poverty and share of agriculture continues to decline at their
negative CAGR then their values will reduce to half in 27 and
25 years respectively. Carbon emission and agricultural GDP
will double in 13 and 26 years if they continue to increase at
their CAGR. One percent increase in Carbon emission will
reduce poverty rate by 0.1172 percent points. One percent
increase in agricultural GDP will reduce poverty rate by
0.2885 percent points.
Table No. 2: Results of Regression Analysis
CO2 AgGDP Temp.
CO2 - 0.12***
Adjusted 0.949 0.86 0.5864
F statistic 309.128*** 310.4*** 70.48***
Significance Codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’
Figures in parenthesis indicate standard error.
Results of regression are provided in Table No. 2. In first
regression we can find that carbon emission per capita is
significantly affected by manufacturing sector GDP per capita
while agriculture and service sector does not contribute
significantly to carbon emission in India. From second
regression it can be observed that carbon emission had
positive impact on agriculture in India in past 50 years. But it
does not mean in future carbon emission will not hurt
agriculture sector. It is also clear from third regression that
carbon emission per capita has significant impact on
Cent percent increase in carbon emission from 2009-10 level
will reduce poverty by 11.72 percent points. This implies that
increased carbon emission will lead to an increase of
approximately 2 degree Celsius in mean annual temperature
making it to reach a level of 26.1 degree Celsius. This will
reduce net agricultural revenue by 12.3 percent.
From the foregoing analysis, it is evident that though in the
short run agriculture sector does not seem to be harmed by
increase in Carbon emission but in long run it will lead to
decline in food security status by reducing affordability of
poor to purchase food items.
1. ANONYMOUS, 2011-12, Hand book of Indian
Economy, published by RBI.
2. CHANDRA PRASANNA, 2009, Projects, Tata
McGraw-Hill, New Delhi: chapter. 7.20.
3. PORTER. D. C., GUNASEKAR S., GUJARATI D.
N., 2011, Basic Econometrics, Tata McGraw-
Hill, New Delhi.