The State of the Housing Market 2012 -2013

real estate
marketing

AgentRedeﬁned
The State of the Market
2012 and Where we are
headed to in 2013

AgentRedeﬁned Contact Us:
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1
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real estate
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Meet the team
Super Agent Summit | November 7th, 2012

3

real estate
marketing
Meet the team
Super Agent Summit | November 7th, 2012

MICHAEL
CUEVAS
REAL ESTATE
PROFESSIONAL
GEORGE CUEVAS AND TEAM
REAL ESTATE BUILDER
MARKETING
SPECIALIST

3

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real estate The Realtor Training Blog
marketing George “El Guapo” Cuevas is also the creator of the
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I train Realtors I travel the country training Real
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6

real estate Selling Residential Real
marketing Estate

Business & Make your Business Plan for
Marketing 2013 first. (just a simple outline keep it
simple)
Your Marketing
Activities are a
How many listings did you close
direct result of in prior years, this year, and what
your Business do you want to close in 2013 and
Planning.... beyond.
Goals are needed (Short Term
and Long Term)
7

real estate Selling Residential Real
marketing Estate

Business & Your Marketing Plan is in part the
Marketing execution of your Business Plan.
Your Marketing Your goals become your
Activities are a benchmarks.
direct result of
All of your Marketing Activities are
your Business
Planning....
executed to meet your Business
Plan and the Goals you set forth for
your business.
8

real estate Business Planning to the
marketing upcoming Market Shift...
Understand where the Housing
A Changing
Market Market is headed to build your
Adapt to the Marketing & Business Plan.
Market... As the Market heats up and
Don’t resist it.... changes you must adapt your
Add the proper
business and planning to it. (remember
Skills and 2007-08 and the Realtors who didn't adapt.)
Training needed
Housing Data is no longer ONLY
to prosper in it.
controlled by Realtors! (Zillow/Trulia)
9

real estate Housing Recovery 2012
marketing Where the housing market recovery is most
prevalent in October 2012

San Francisco Bay Area
Several Markets surrounding L.A.
Several Markets surrounding San Diego
Phoenix
Parts of Boston
Washington DC & several surrounding areas.

10

real estate STATE OF THE MARKET
marketing 2013

Recovery in
Progress

The overall U.S.
Housing Market
has been in a
state of recovery
since February
2012.

11

real estate STATE OF THE MARKET
marketing 2013

Recovery in
Progress Recovery is in
THE THE progress despite
ﬂat GDP Growth
The overall U.S. RECOVERY RECOVERY under 2%,
Housing Market IS NOT IS slowing Private
has been in a EQUAL IN CAUTIOUS Sector Activity,
and
ALL LY TEPID Unemployment
state of recovery MARKETS AND SLOW at around 8%
since February officially.
2012.

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real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012
marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic
Conditions by the Federal Reserve District.

12


Economic Activity was modest
since last report which indicated a
slowing economy.

12


slowing economy.
Residential Real Estate
conditions continued to improve.
Prices were remaining “steady to
increasing”.

12


slowing economy.
Residential Real Estate
increasing”.
Declining inventories noted in
Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis,
Dallas, & All of the San Francisco
Districts.
12


Economic Activity was modest Residential construction was
since last report which indicated a also described as rising in these
slowing economy. districts and continuing in
Residential Real Estate California and Phoenix.
increasing”.
Declining inventories noted in
Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis,
Districts.
12


conditions continued to improve. Real Estate Contracts are
Prices were remaining “steady to expected to continue to grow. The
increasing”. recovery remains fragile and could
Declining inventories noted in be derailed by deterioration in
Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, economic conditions.
Districts.
12


conditions continued to improve. Real Estate Contracts are
Prices were remaining “steady to expected to continue to grow. The
increasing”. recovery remains fragile and could
Declining inventories noted in be derailed by deterioration in
Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, economic conditions.
Dallas, & All of the San Francisco Housing Market will contribute
Districts. positively to the GDP in 2012.
12

real estate Shiller Housing Price Index
marketing Where housing prices have been and where they
are going...

13

real estate Existing & New Home
marketing Sales 1980 - 2012
Housing Units Sold
New Home Sales

14

real estate Existing & New Home
marketing Sales 1980 - 2012
6,350,000 6180000
5958000 Housing Units Sold
5,725,000
5677000 New Home Sales
5446000

5,100,000 4939000
4649000 4603000 4603000 4566000 4470000
4,475,000 4350000 4309000

3,850,000

3,225,000 3010000
2973000
2829000
2,600,000

1,975,000

1,350,000 1 2 0 3 0 0 01 2 8 3 0 0 0
1086000 1051000
886000 880000 877000
776000
725,000 639000 650000
545000 485000
375000 323000 350000

1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1980 - 2012

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real estate Number of Realtors in
marketing NAR
Total Realtors at NAR

15

real estate Number of Realtors in
marketing NAR
1,400,000
1357732 Total Realtors at NAR
1338001

1265367

1,225,000 1197529

1112645
1066658
1,050,000 1009940

875,000
803803

718599
700,000

525,000

1996 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1996 - 2012 15

real estate Short Sales Taking Over
marketing REO’s

16

real estate 2012-2013 Short Sales
marketing will dominate the market

Foreclosure Status
Illinois | OCT 2012
Short Sales now
dominate over both
Auctions and REO’s
in the State of
Illinois. This trend
is seen throughout
the country.

17

real estate 2012-2013 Short Sales
marketing will dominate the market

Foreclosure Status
Illinois | OCT 2012
Short Sales now
31%
dominate over both 43%
Auctions and REO’s
in the State of
Illinois. This trend
is seen throughout
the country. 26%
Auction
REO
Short Sale

17

real estate Housing Supply/
marketing Inventory (MRED)

2010
2011
2012

18

real estate Housing Supply/
marketing Inventory (MRED)
16.0

14.4 14.1 13.9

12.8 12.5
11 . 9
11.1
2010
2011 9.5

2012 7.9

6.6
6.3 5.9

4.6

September October
19

18

real estate Listings Currently Under
marketing Contract

2010
2011
2012

19

real estate Listings Currently Under
marketing Contract
12,000
11,278

10,667

9,610
2010 9,333

2011
2012 8,000

6,667
6,160 6,226

5,333
5,215 5,134

September October
19

real estate New Listings Coming on
marketing the Market..

2010
2011
2012

20

real estate New Listings Coming on
marketing the Market..
17,500

16,228
16,000

14,500
14,013 14,188
2010 13,533
13,190
2011 13,000
13,081

2012
11,500

10,000

September October
20

real estate Total Sales Closed
marketing

2010
2011
2012

21

real estate Total Sales Closed
marketing
10,000

9,000 8,753

7,971
2010
8,000

2011 7,000
2012 6,557
6,292
6,000
5,728

5,068
5,000

September October
21

real estate Average Days on Market
marketing

2010
2011
2012

22

real estate Average Days on Market
marketing
200

168
166 165 1 6 7
159

139 140
2010
137

2011 105
2012
73

42

September October
22

real estate Naperville Housing
marketing Supply

Months of Supply

23

real estate Naperville Housing
marketing Supply
15.0

Months of Supply
12.8

10.7

9.4
8.5

6.3 6.1 5.8 6.1

4.2

$229,899 and Below $229,900 to $357,899 $357,900 to $524,899 $524,900 and Above
23

real estate Market Trends 2012 &
marketing What to expect in 2013

Recovery in
Progress

We are seeing
several trends
take hold in this
market
recovery...

24

real estate Market Trends 2012 &
marketing What to expect in 2013

Recovery in
Progress
REO’s are There is a drop
Decreasing in New Listings
We are seeing Overall both
several trends Sales Traditional and
take hold in this Activity is Distressed
Short Sales coming onto to
Increasing
market are the market at
Increasing the same time...
recovery...

24

real estate The Results of these
marketing Market Trends...

Recovery in
Progress
If current trends
continue we will
see shrinking
housing supply
in the
Chicagoland
Area...

25

real estate The Results of these
marketing Market Trends...

Recovery in
Expect the
Progress MRED area Focus should
Housing to get down be on Listings
If current trends Inventories to take
to 2-3 advantage of a
continue we will are Months of tight housing
see shrinking Decreasing Housing supply coming
housing supply Supply in to the
the 4th QTR Chicagoland
in the 2013 Area.
Chicagoland
Area...

25

real estate Adapting to the
marketing Changing Marketplace...
Listings become GOLD in a heated
Marketing
Techniques market. Re-Make your listing
presentations.
Start to utilize
techniques to Online Property Searches are
take advantage dominated by Zillow & Trulia:
of the changing EMBRACE THIS.
marketplace. Traditional Marketing Techniques
Get the training
with a Twist: Just Sold, Just Listed,
you need.
Open Houses, Expired, FSBO’s
26

real estate 2013 Trends & What to
marketing Expect

If the current trends continue
Trends
expect housing inventories in the
Short Sales will Chicagoland area to drop to 2-3
continue to months of supply by the 4th Quarter of
dominate and
2013.
inventories
continue to Short Sales will continue to
shrink... dominate the market over REO’s and
start to drop off in 2014, 2015.

27

real estate Pricing Increases
marketing The 54K Question?

There is a time lapse between
Pricing shrinking inventories and pricing
Trends
increases.
Expect pricing to
Pricing increases take time to take
rise slowly and hold and measure.
cautiously. Expect to start seeing more
definitive %’ in price increases in the
4th Quarter of 2013.
Remember, this is a slow recovery.
28

The State of the Housing Market 2012 -2013

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