Analyzing Game Metrics by Marvin

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Analyzing Game Metrics by Marvin

  1. 1. @agatestudio Analyzing Game Metrics Marvin Clerics Agate Studio
  2. 2. @agatestudio Analyzing Game Metrics with Sensitivity Analysis & Scenario Analysis TDS – 21 Juni 2014 Lee Marvin- lee.marvin@agategames.com
  3. 3. @agatestudio SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
  4. 4. @agatestudio • technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable will impact a particular dependent variable under a given set of assumptions. Definition Usage • Specify the most impactful variable in the metrics to drive revenue/profit • Improve spreadsheet model assumptions • Using tools called SensIt (http://bit.ly/sensit131)
  5. 5. @agatestudio Example of Output 100,000.00 2.0% 25% $5.00 0.15 10.0% $2.00 25.0% 45.0% 20.0% $1.00 300,000.00 5.0% 75% $20.00 0.30 20.0% $5.00 35.0% 65.0% 50.0% $1.00 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,500,000 Users Conversion Retention rate ARPPU Whales DAU/MAU Split Whales ARPPU Dolphins Split Dolphins Split Minnows Platform %age ARPPU Minnows Year one: SensIt 1.45 Tryout Version, Only For Evaluation, www.DecisionToolworks.com
  6. 6. @agatestudio Example of Output (cont’d) $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,500,000 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 200.0% 220.0% Yearone: Input Value as % of Base Case SensIt 1.45 Tryout Version, Only For Evaluation, www.DecisionToolworks.com Users Conversion Retention rate ARPPU Whales DAU/MAU Split Whales ARPPU Dolphins Split Dolphins Split Minnows Platform %age ARPPU Minnows
  7. 7. @agatestudio SCENARIO ANALYSIS
  8. 8. @agatestudio • Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Definition Usage • Specify the potential revenue of project • Using tools called Crystall Ball (http://bit.ly/crystallball)
  9. 9. @agatestudio Example of Output
  10. 10. Excel File Example http://bit.ly/F2Pmodel
  11. 11. Thank You

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