Poverty to Power

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  • e.g. recent graduates; people who are still making up their minds - A long term exercise – change the way future leaders think about development aka, what do you read after Naomi Klein?
  • Photos: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam
  • Photos: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam
  • Top 500 billionaires earn as much as 416 million poorest people Average global income is $9,500 – 25 times more than that of the bottom billion So there is enough money to go round – that is no longer a problem But problem is not primarily about global redistribution, but about domestic power and politics- come to that in a moment
  • What is happening with inequalities? This map shows the degree of income inequality within countries, going from those with the most equal income distributions (green – mainly northern Europe) through to the most unequal (deep red: Latin America and Africa). NB grey= no data. This is just a static picture. What is happening over time?
  • Photo: Renato Guimaraes/Oxfam
  • Photo: Aubrey Wade/Oxfam
  • Photo: Toby Adamson/Oxfam
  • Photo: Renato Guimaraes/Oxfam Jeronima: ‘ My father never realised about our rights. We just did what the white people told us – only they could be in power, be President. We couldn’t even go into the town centre – people swore at us. But then we got our own organisation and elected our own leaders and that’s when we realised we had rights.’ Feudalism and football teams Growing struggles and linking up with highland Indians Election of Morales 2006 1m hectares July 2007 Power within: Gender: . ‘We used to meet separately as women, but now we meet with the men – we’re no longer afraid,’ Indigenous: ‘ILO Convention 169 [on indigenous rights] was important, it made our indigenous part wake up’ Why Active Citizens? Recognizes agency of poor people Starts from multidimensional nature of poverty Builds on Oxfam’s identity as a rights-based agency Builds on instrumental benefits of AC, eg in preventing famine or encouraging good governance
  • Photo (right): Ryan Kenward Botswana: The world’s fastest growing economy from 1960-2000, breaking all the rules – arid, landlocked, small, nat resource dependent, regional conflict and African. Independence: 13km of paved road, handful of graduates, $300 per cap 40 years on: $6,000 per cap How? Effective state and luck Why Effective States? Lessons of history – East Asia and others (aka developmental states) Definition: Effective, accountable states Have powerful and insulated technocracies that establish stable and enforce inclusive ‘rules of the game’ on politics, taxation, law and the working of markets Have determined, skilled and nationalist business elites Protect the vulnerable (eg social protection) Mediate and resolve conflicts
  • A low carbon growth path is a huge challenge. According to Sir Nicholas Stern at the LSE, a fair global deal means establishing an annual carbon allowance of 2 tonnes per person per year by 2050, falling to one tonne in the longer term. Carbon emissions in the US are currently 20 times that amount.
  • Photo: Annie Bungeroth/Oxfam
  • Photo: Annie Bungeroth/Oxfam
  • Photo: Annie Bungeroth/Oxfam
  • Photo: Annie Bungeroth/Oxfam
  • Photo: Renato Guimaraes/Oxfam n.b. People in photo are not actually Chiquitanos
  • Photo: Renato Guimaraes/Oxfam
  • Photo: Geoff Sayer/Oxfam
  • Photo: Jim Holmes/Oxfam
  • Photo: Paul Thompson Margaret Mead: ‘ Never doubt that a group of concerned citizens can change the world – indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.’
  • Photo: resistingwomen.net ‘ Never doubt that a group of concerned citizens can change the world – indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.’
  • Photo: resistingwomen.net
  • Photo: Gilvan Barreto/Oxfam In Papua New Guinea (PNG) over 97 per cent of land is under such traditional ‘customary’ title, and there is a significant push, including from the Australian government and the World Bank, to reform land ownership systems on the premise that customary title is an impediment to development.
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2006
  • Photo: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam In 1900, New Zealand was the only country with a government elected by all its adult citizens. By the end of the century, despite a number of severe reversals (including fascism and communism and succeeding waves of military coups against elected governments), there were ostensibly 120 electoral democracies in place.
  • Photo: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam
  • Photo: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Parliament_House%2C_Dec_05.JPG In the early 1960s, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) had a national income per capita twice that of South Korea. Both countries had hungry, illiterate populations; both received substantial US aid; both were devastated by conflict. Since then, Korea has become one of the great development success stories of recent times, transforming the lives of its people, while the DRC has slid further into economic decline and civil war. The German philosopher Georg Hegel described the state as a ‘work of art’. As works of conscious design, the greatest constitutions and states stand comparison with the finest achievements of civilisation in visual arts, music, philosophy, or poetry. They are the collective manifestation of the human imagination, and often surpass individual achievements in the extent to which they have transformed people’s lives.
  • Photo: PA Photos
  • Photo: PA Photos
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam
  • Photo: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam Between 1980 and 2004, spending on agriculture as a share of total government expenditure fell in Africa (from 6.4 per cent to 5 per cent), in Asia (14.8 per cent to 7.4 per cent), and in Latin America (8 per cent to 2.7 per cent). In recent years, Malawi has shown what state action can achieve in terms of poverty reduction, if not yet in terms of broader economic take-off. After a series of poor harvests left almost five million Malawians facing food shortages, the government defied pressure from the country’s aid donors and introduced subsidies on seeds and fertilisers to pre-empt famine. The results were spectacular, more than doubling the national maize harvest and averting widespread hunger. The first wave of supermarkets hit developing countries in the early 1990s, appearing in major cities in the richer countries of East Asia (outside China), Central Europe, and Latin America. By 2000, they accounted for 50–60 per cent of retail sales, close to their share in the USA or France. They soon expanded to smaller and poorer countries in Central America, the Andes, and Southern and then Eastern Africa. Their take-off in Asia is now registering even faster growth than in Latin America. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, 70,000 supermarkets opened in rural areas of the country in 2005. [1] The phenomenon is now beginning to be seen in South Asia and West Africa.
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam
  • Photo: Toby Adamson/Oxfam
  • Photo: Toby Adamson/Oxfam In 1982 the government of Bangladesh began to promote export-oriented manufacturing; within two years, the garment industry took off. By 2004, an estimated two million people worked in the garment factories. Woman garment worker: ‘In my mother’s time … women had to tolerate more suffering because they did not have the means to become independent. They are better off now, they know about the world, they have been given education, they can work and stand on their own feet. They have more freedom.’ In La Paz, where 60 per cent of the workforce is now in the informal economy, there is one street trader for every three families.
  • Photo: Toby Adamson/Oxfam SMEs played a central role in Taiwan’s spectacular growth, built on exports that rose a hundredfold between 1965 and 1987. When labour costs rose in the 1980s, the government actively pushed SMEs to upgrade into ever higher-technology products such as computers, particularly for export. When India’s Tata Motors launched its ‘people’s car’ in 2008 it followed in the footsteps of the Volkswagen Beetle or the Model T Ford, promising to bring cars to new generations of consumers by exporting $2,500 Nanos to the rest of the developing world. D eveloping country TNCs are more likely to use ‘intermediate’ technologies that are more labour-intensive, and so create more jobs. However, the poor performance of southern TNCs regarding social and environmental responsibility is a cause for concern, and may be due to the absence of strong government or civil society scrutiny at home.
  • Photo: Renato Guimarães/Oxfam Global trade is booming, growing much faster than the world economy as a whole. Global exports of manufactured and agricultural products increased by 15 per cent in 2006, to a value of $11.8 trillion. Trade in services such as banking and tourism rose by 11 per cent, reaching $2.7 trillion In manufacturing, countries with successful growth records – such as South Korea, Taiwan, Viet Nam, China, and Mauritius – have developed core industries behind protective barriers. When they were at the same level of development as sub-Saharan Africa is today, the USA had an average tariff of 40 per cent, Japan 30 per cent, and EU members 20 per cent, far higher than the levels currently being contemplated in today’s trade negotiations.
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2007
  • Photo: Toby Adamson/Oxfam New Economics Foundation: In the 1990s it took $166 of global economic growth, with all the associated environmental costs, to achieve just $1 of progress in reducing poverty, while in the 1980s this figure was $45. Any proponent of the Washington Consensus visiting Latin America and China in the mid-1980s would reasonably have concluded that Latin America was bound for prosperity, whereas China was doomed. Latin America at that time was moving into a liberalising overdrive, privatising state firms and opening up to trade. In China, meanwhile, tariffs and non-tariff barriers remained high, and the government showed little appetite for ending its deep involvement in crucial areas of economic management such as the banking system.
  • Photo: Gustav Liliequist
  • Photo: Morris Herson/Oxfam Voices of the Poor conclusion: ‘Anxiety emerges as the defining characteristic of insecurity, and the anxiety is based not on one but on many risks and fears: anxiety about jobs, anxiety about not getting paid, anxiety about needing to migrate, anxiety about lack of protection and safety, anxiety about floods and drought, anxiety about shelter, anxiety about falling ill, and anxiety about the future of children and settling them well in marriage.’ Egs of reinforcement: Studies in Malawi show how the famine of 2001–02 drove desperate women and girls to sell sex to survive, greatly increasing their chances of contracting HIV. More than 50 per cent of Africa’s food crises can be explained by armed conflict and the consequent displacement of millions of people
  • Photo: Ami Vitale/Oxfam In 2007, a c ombination of child support, disability payments, and pensions was reaching approximately 13 million South Africans, out of a total population of 48 million. Total spending in 2007 amounted to $9bn – 3.4 per cent of GDP. Kyrgyzstan’s social protection system now comprises a social insurance fund from which old age and disability pensions are paid; a health insurance fund, which covers the costs of health treatment for the working population and for children and older people; and a social assistance system, which provides small amounts of cash assistance on a means-tested basis to people living below the poverty line. Although far from perfect, it shows that even a very poor country (in 2005 Kyrgyzstan’s annual per capita GDP was US$319) can run a social protection system that helps protect the most vulnerable. World Bank analysis suggests that, without the system, the extreme poverty headcount would have increased by 24 per cent, the poverty gap by 42 per cent, and the severity of poverty by 57 per cent. Furthermore, these levels of social protection do not represent an unsustainable drain on public resources: in 2002, they cost 3 per cent of GDP.
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam
  • Photo: Rajendra Shaw/Oxfam
  • Photo: Howard Davies/Oxfam
  • Photo: Howard Davies/Oxfam The growth of microfinance institutions has been spectacular, with the total number of borrowers rising from 13.5 million in 1997 to 113.3 million in 2004, of whom two-thirds were people living on less than $1 a day. The vast majority of these people are in Asia, where over one-third of poor families have access to microfinance.
  • Photo: Reuters
  • Photo: Reuters
  • Photo: Glenn Edwards/Oxfam Half of global cancer deaths are in developing countries, including (due to late diagnosis and lack of treatment) 95 per cent of deaths from cervical cancer
  • Photo: Shailan Parker/Oxfam HIV and AIDS: In 25 years the disease has spread to virtually every country, with 65 million people infected with HIV and 25 million deaths from AIDS. In 2005, there were 38.6 million people worldwide living with HIV and AIDS: 4.1 million were newly infected with HIV that year, while 2.8 million people died from AIDS. Of the 2.3 million children living with HIV and AIDS globally, two million are African. Women aged 15–24 are six times more likely to carry the virus than men in the same age group
  • Photo: AP/PA Photos
  • Photo: Mi rjam van den Berg/Oxfam Novib
  • Photo: Mi rjam van den Berg/Oxfam Novib Inequality: January 2001 was a bad month for earthquakes, with major tremors striking in India, El Salvador, and the northwest USA around Seattle. These three earthquakes were of similar orders of magnitude, but killed 20,000 people in India, 600 in El Salvador, and none in Seattle. Even allowing for geological differences, the explanation for such a huge disparity lay not in nature, but in poverty and power. Nature is neutral, but disasters discriminate. On average, the number of people affected by disasters in developing countries is 150 times higher than in rich countries, whereas the population is only five times greater. December 2004 tsunami: Over 227,000 people lost their lives and some 1.7 million were displaced. A massive, media-fuelled global response resulted, producing an estimated $13.5bn in international aid, including $5.5bn from the public in developed countries. Disaster Preparedness: Two months after Hurricane Katrina inundated New Orleans in 2005, killing around 1,300 people, Hurricane Wilma, at one point the strongest hurricane ever recorded, struck Cuba. The sea swept 1km inland and flooded the capital Havana, yet there were no deaths or even injuries in the city. Nationwide, 640,000 people were evacuated and only one life was lost. The six major hurricanes that rolled over Cuba between 1996 and 2002 claimed only 16 lives.
  • Photo: Mi rjam van den Berg/Oxfam Novib The World Health Organization suggests that the warming and precipitation trends attributable to man-made climate change over the past 30 years already claim more than 150,000 lives a year – most of them in poor countries The UN warns that, without action now, there could be over 150 million environmental refugees by 2050, due to the likely effects of global warming
  • Photo: HDPT Central African Republic Attitudes and beliefs on violence against women: In South Asia, We Can’s campaign to end violence against women works through people-to-people contact and a massive network of over 1,800 civil society organisations. Individual ‘change makers’ sign up to the campaign, promising to change themselves and to influence their family, friends, and neighbours on the need to end domestic violence and change attitudes towards women. They are armed with some basic materials, including resources suitable for those unable to read, such as posters addressing everyday forms of violent discrimination. In a process reminiscent of viral marketing, those they ‘convert’ become change makers themselves. So far, just over one million people have signed on. The campaign’s target is five million. In August 2002 in Nigeria’s Kaduna state, the epicentre of the country’s inter-communal violence where both Muslims and Christians see themselves as economically and politically marginalised, former militants from each community encouraged twenty senior religious leaders to sign a declaration of peace. Since then, these leaders have been credited with helping to restrain violence during state and federal elections, and have intervened in disputes in Kaduna schools, preventing minor arguments from turning into major incidents. 40 per cent of countries collapse into war within five years of signing peace deals.
  • Photo: David Vinuales/Oxfam Disasters are also ‘political moments’ that can make as well as break movements for change. They highlight corruption and political bias: in Nicaragua, popular outrage at the theft of relief money by the Somoza dictatorship after the earthquake of 1972 was a ‘tipping point’ in the upsurge of protest that led to the Sandinista Revolution seven years later. The feeble response of the Mexican authorities to the earthquake of 1985 galvanised independent social movements and weakened the stranglehold of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which had ruled the country since 1929. Catastrophic famines in Bangladesh in 1971 and in Ethiopia in 1985 led respectively to independence and the fall of a dictatorship. The 2004 Asian tsunami set the stage for a resumption of peace talks between the separatist Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, or GAM) and the Indonesian government, culminating in the signing of a peace agreement in August 2005 that officially brought a 30-year conflict to an end.
  • Photo: UNA-San Diego
  • Photo: Craig Owen/Oxfam
  • Photo: Aaron Mallett http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/15/2217414.htm
  • Photo: Aaron Mallett By one calculation, banking and financial crises have wiped 25 per cent off the economic output of developing countries over the past 25 years. ‘ Citizens’ confidence is measured every four years with an election. The market measures business confidence every four seconds.’ Brazilian academic, Marcus Faro de Castro ‘ Transfer pricing’ involves under- or overcharging for trade within different company affiliates in order to minimise tax. One study revealed companies recording internal transactions of TV antennas from China priced at $0.04 and Japanese tweezers priced at $4,896.
  • Photo: Renato Guimarães/Oxfam Taxpayers provide a mere 25,000 US cotton farmers and corporations with annual subsidies of up to $4bn, resulting in overproduction and dumping on world markets that cost ten million poor farmers in West Africa between 8 per cent and 20 per cent of their income An average of two bilateral investment treaties are signed every week. Most alarming among the EU’s bilateral and regional negotiations are the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with former colonies in Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific.
  • Since 2001, for example, competition among Indian generics producers has driven down the cost of first-line antiretroviral medicines from $10,000 per patient per year to the current level of less than $100 per patient per year. Thailand’s decision to issue a compulsory licence for its second-line HIV medicine Kaletra prompted Abbott Pharmaceuticals to de-register seven new medicines from the Thai market. Abbott was charging patients nearly $2,200 per year for the drug. Biopiracy: in 1995, when two researchers from the University of Mississippi Medical Center were granted a US patent for using turmeric to heal wounds, an art that has been practised in India for thousands of years. To get the patent repealed, the claim had to be backed by written evidence – an ancient Sanskrit text Similar patent disputes have broken out over attempts by US firms to patent basmati rice (a tasty variety perfected over generations by Indian farmers), ayahuasca (an Amazon rainforest plant sacred to Colombia’s indigenous peoples), the neem tree (an Indian plant traditionally used to produce medicines and pesticides), and extracts of black pepper. In 2005, the Peruvian government accused Japanese scientists of trying to patent the extract of camu-camu , a pale orange fruit found in the Amazon that has the highest concentration of vitamin C of any known plant, 60 times greater than lemon juice.
  • Photo: Tomas Castelazo When Ecuador suffered an economic crisis in the late 1990s, thousands of people left the country, many for Spain, and remittances rapidly expanded to 10 per cent of GDP – a vital lifeline for a country in crisis. Without immigration, the Spanish economy would have stagnated over the past five years, and in 2005 immigrants paid in €5bn more in taxes than they received in services
  • In 2007, Wal-Mart’s sales came to $345bn, more than the GDP of all 49 least developed countries put together, or of major economies such as Saudi Arabia, Poland, or Indonesia. All told, the universe of transnational corporations (TNCs) now spans some 77,000 parent companies with over 770,000 foreign affiliates. In 2005, these foreign affiliates generated an estimated $4.5 trillion in value added, employed some 62 million workers, and exported goods and services valued at more than $4 trillion. Corruption : World Bank figures suggest that $1 trillion in bribes is paid annually by international companies to secure lucrative deals. In the USA, pharmaceutical companies spent $759m to influence 1,400 Congressional bills between 1998 and 2004, and they employ 3,000 lobbyists
  • Aid’s most tangible successes have been in health, where vaccinations have eradicated smallpox and have saved 7.5 million lives from 1999–2005 simply by halving deaths from measles Malawi: With 90 per cent funding from the UK and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis, Malawi’s Ministry of Health increased salaries by 50 per cent for 5,400 existing front-line health workers, recruited 700 new health staff, expanded and improved training schools and trainers, and plugged critical gaps with expatriate volunteers. ‘ In 2003, resignations of nurses were at one or even two a week. It was shocking,’ said Dr. Damison Kathyola, director of Kamuzu Central Hospital in the Malawian capital Lilongwe. ‘Since we introduced incentives, we’ve somehow stemmed it to one or two a month.’ Quality: a proliferation of international ‘ financing mechanisms’, including 90 global health funds set up to address specific diseases or problems. Uganda has over 40 donors delivering aid in-country. Government of Uganda figures show that it had to deal with 684 different aid instruments and associated agreements between 2003/04 and 2006/07, for aid coming into the central budget alone. St. Vincent (population 117,000) was asked to monitor 191 different indicators on HIV and AIDS
  • Photo: Kieran Battles/Oxfam
  • Photo: Kieran Battles/Oxfam
  • Photo: Kieran Battles/Oxfam
  • Photo: Howard Davies/Oxfam
  • Photo: Swan Ti Ng/Oxfam Oxfam has developed an ‘Adaptation Financing Index’ as an indication of what each country should pay. On this basis, Oxfam has calculated that the USA, the European Union, Japan, Canada, and Australia are responsible for over 95 per cent of the financing needed. It estimates that the USA is responsible for over 40 per cent, the European Union for over 30 per cent, and Japan for over 10 per cent. Within the European Union, the top five contributors to adaptation financing should be Germany, the UK, Italy, France, and Spain. Carbon trading: relatively small, covering less than 5.5 per cent of global carbon emissions in 2006 Thanks to industry lobbying, caps were initially set far too high in Europe’s flagship scheme, and the price of carbon duly collapsed, removing incentives to cut emissions. Ongoing industry lobbying threatens to undercut proposals to introduce auctioning of emissions permits into the ETS. The price of carbon has been too volatile to prompt the long-term investments in areas such as renewable energy are required if emissions are to be reduced. Because carbon trading seeks reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest possible overall cost, it channels private sector efforts toward the cheapest reductions rather than those that are vital in the long-term, such as changes to infrastructure, new technologies, and dispersed emissions sources (for example, transport and housing).
  • Photo: Swan Ti Ng/Oxfam
  • Photo: Ian K. Rogers
  • Photo: Ian K. Rogers
  • Photo: Crispin Hughes/Oxfam Graph source: Adapted from www.princeton.edu/wedges/presentation_resources/
  • Photo: Jim Holmes/Oxfam A media-driven global system that raised over $7,000 per person affected by the 2004 tsunami, but only $3 per person affected by that year’s floods in Bangladesh. Food aid: high oil prices, transport can eat up much of the food aid budget – up to 40 per cent in Canada’s case in 2004, which helped to prompt a policy change to allow increased local sourcing. In addition, a third of the global food aid budget is wasted because the USA insists on processing food aid domestically and shipping it via national carriers. An OECD study found that t he actual costs of tied food aid transfers were on average approximately 50 per cent higher than local food purchases and 33 per cent more costly than procurement of food in third countries (so-called triangular transactions).
  • Photo: Peter Goodbody In November 2001 around Kisangani, the scene of intense fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo that involved many civilian deaths, Amnesty International found ammunition cartridges for North Korean, Chinese, and Russian heavy machine-guns, Russian revolvers, South African assault rifles, Chinese anti-aircraft weapons, and Russian, Bulgarian, and Slovak automatic grenade launchers. At the time, the DRC was subject to EU and UN arms embargoes, which should have prevented the sale of all of these weapons. International efforts at arms control have long focused on nuclear and other sophisticated weapons systems, yet small weapons and light arms are the true weapons of mass destruction, responsible for some 300,000 deaths in 2003. C ollectively, countries in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa spent $22.5bn on arms during 2004, a sum sufficient to put every child in school and to reduce child mortality by two-thirds by 2015.
  • Photo: Sean Sutton/MAG
  • Photo: Sean Sutton/MAG
  • A low carbon growth path is a huge challenge. According to Sir Nicholas Stern at the LSE, a fair global deal means establishing an annual carbon allowance of 2 tonnes per person per year by 2050, falling to one tonne in the longer term. Carbon emissions in the US are currently 20 times that amount.
  • Poverty to Power

    1. 1. Introduction title Introduction: The Unequal World
    2. 2. Book image
    3. 3. What is it? <ul><li>A book (300+ pages) </li></ul><ul><li>Spin off print and web materials </li></ul><ul><li>A ‘reflection’, i.e. not a strategy, campaign briefing or agreed Oxfam International policy position </li></ul><ul><li>Comprehensive – a ‘state of the world’ publication </li></ul>
    4. 4. Who’s the target audience? <ul><li>Next generation leaders and opinion formers, North and South </li></ul><ul><li>Current development practitioners, policy makers, influencers </li></ul>
    5. 5. What’s the vision? <ul><li>Women and men in communities everywhere who are equipped with education, enjoying good health, with rights, dignity and voice - in charge of their own destinies </li></ul>“ ”
    6. 6. So what’s the problem? Inequality
    7. 7. These children’s life chances are already shaped by their: <ul><li>Sex </li></ul><ul><li>Race </li></ul><ul><li>Nationality </li></ul><ul><li>Parental income </li></ul><ul><li>Parental education </li></ul>
    8. 8. Inequality is falling in some countries… Annual % Gini Change 0 -1 -2 -3
    9. 9. … but rising in many more Annual % Gini Change 4 3 2 1 0
    10. 10. Global inequality is obscene <ul><li>Ending poverty would cost $300bn – a third of global military spending </li></ul><ul><li>Top 500 billionaires earn as much as the 416 million poorest people </li></ul><ul><li>Average global income is $9,500 – 25 times more than that of the bottom billion </li></ul>
    11. 11. What’s happening with inequality?
    12. 12. The answer? Redistribution Of Power
    13. 13. Of Opportunities The answer? Redistribution
    14. 14. Of Assets The answer? Redistribution
    15. 15. What's needed: Active Citizens
    16. 16. What's needed: Effective States
    17. 17. The urgency of now <ul><li>Climate change makes development more urgent than ever </li></ul><ul><li>It means dirty growth is no longer an option </li></ul><ul><li>We need to move poor countries onto a clean growth path as soon as possible </li></ul><ul><li>If we fail, and carbon becomes either forbidden or too expensive, poor countries and communities may be stuck outside the ‘carbon curtain’ in a new Dark Age </li></ul>
    18. 18. The urgency of now <ul><li>Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable... Over the bleached bones of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: Too late. </li></ul><ul><li>Martin Luther King, 1968 </li></ul>“ ”
    19. 19. Section 2 Power and Politics
    20. 20. Main messages <ul><li>Rights and dignity are a crucial part of development and well-being </li></ul><ul><li>Achieving these requires involvement in power and politics </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to exercise rights requires access to essential services, information and knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Active citizenship, including civil society organization, is essential to development </li></ul><ul><li>Democracy is beneficial on both intrinsic and instrumental basis </li></ul><ul><li>Effective states play a central role in development </li></ul>
    21. 21. And rights are about power - Picture Development is about rights
    22. 22. Development is about rights <ul><li>Rights are long-term guarantees that allow right- holders to put demands on duty bearers </li></ul><ul><li>Capabilities = rights + ability to exercise them </li></ul><ul><li>Involves crucial shift from treating poor people as ‘beneficiaries’ to seeing them as active agents </li></ul><ul><li>Rights = lawyers and scholars; development = economists and engineers </li></ul>
    23. 23. And rights are about power <ul><li>Power over : the power of the strong over the weak </li></ul><ul><li>Power to : the capability to decide actions and carry them out </li></ul><ul><li>Power with : collective power, through organisation, solidarity, and joint action </li></ul><ul><li>Power within : personal self-confidence </li></ul>
    24. 24. How change happens: the Chiquitanos
    25. 25. How change happens: the Chiquitanos <ul><li>3 July 2007: Chiquitanos win title to 1m hectares of traditional lands in Eastern Bolivia </li></ul><ul><li>Lived in near-feudal conditions up to 1980s </li></ul><ul><li>Activism began on margins of football league </li></ul><ul><li>Marches to La Paz forged links with highland Indians and built ethnic identity </li></ul><ul><li>Chiquitanos elected as mayors and senators </li></ul><ul><li>Evo Morales’ 2006 election, the turning point </li></ul>
    26. 26. First build the people… <ul><li>Education, healthcare, water, sanitation and housing are basic building blocks of a decent life </li></ul><ul><li>Education: need improvements in both quality and quantity (esp. for girls) </li></ul><ul><li>Health: maternal mortality as example of gender and wealth-based inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Control over fertility is both a rights and health issue </li></ul><ul><li>The state must be central to provision </li></ul>
    27. 27. Then ensure access to knowledge and information <ul><li>Steady improvements in access to knowledge, e.g. radio, mobiles, internet </li></ul><ul><li>Technology holds enormous potential </li></ul><ul><li>But current incentives bias R&D against the needs of the poor </li></ul><ul><li>And intellectual property rules act as a barrier to technology transfer (pharmaceuticals, biopiracy) </li></ul>
    28. 28. And the right to organise <ul><li>Increasing range and complexity of civil society organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Role of CSOs as catalysts and watchdogs </li></ul><ul><li>Intrinsic and instrumental benefits of CSO involvement </li></ul><ul><li>Civil society activism waxes and wanes </li></ul><ul><li>Civil society is very involved in decentralization processes </li></ul>
    29. 29. How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco
    30. 30. How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco <ul><li>2004: Moroccan parliament approves new Islamic family code that strengthens women’s rights </li></ul><ul><li>Changes driven by Union de l’Action Feminine, working within Islam, e.g. quoting Koran </li></ul><ul><li>Counterattack from conservative activists and clerics </li></ul><ul><li>Women’s movement used insider-outsider tactics - petitions and marches to fend off conservatives </li></ul><ul><li>King formed commission which led to law change </li></ul>
    31. 31. Property rights matter <ul><li>Property rights matter to poor people </li></ul><ul><li>Women often excluded from full rights to property </li></ul><ul><li>Many systems of property rights, e.g. customary law </li></ul><ul><li>Role of property rights in development: important but not a panacea (de Soto) and can have negative impacts </li></ul>
    32. 32. The importance of land reform to equality and growth
    33. 33. Democracy works <ul><li>Spread of democracy was a feature of the 20 th century </li></ul><ul><li>Democracies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more predictable long run growth rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce greater short term stability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Handle shocks much better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deliver more equality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Democracy in many countries is ‘exclusionary’, with flawed party systems and patronage politics </li></ul><ul><li>But for most people remains the ‘least worst’ alternative </li></ul>
    34. 34. Corruption is often linked to natural resources <ul><li>Corruption is both a cause and effect of poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on development varies (10% v 100%) </li></ul><ul><li>Active citizens can curb corruption, while rich countries and corporations must also put their houses in order </li></ul><ul><li>Natural resources can undermine the social contract between state and citizen </li></ul><ul><li>But some countries have managed natural resource wealth well (e.g. Botswana, Malaysia) </li></ul>
    35. 35. States are at the heart of development (and growing in importance) <ul><li>Nation states play a core role in providing essential services, rule of law, economic stability and upgrading </li></ul><ul><li>Weak or absent states are often worse than bad ones, but can be turned around, often after a ‘shock’ </li></ul><ul><li>Looking at East Asian tigers, successful states: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Govern for the future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promote growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Start with equity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integrate with the global economy, but discriminate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guarantee health and education for all </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Taxation is central to the citizen-state relationship </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization and orthodoxy make building effective states harder </li></ul>
    36. 36. Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens?
    37. 37. Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens? <ul><li>Aka would you rather be poor in China or Bolivia? </li></ul><ul><li>Nation builders are often undemocratic </li></ul><ul><li>But selection bias excludes states that are now developed </li></ul><ul><li>Autocrats often fail and civil society is less tolerant of ‘benevolent dictators’ </li></ul><ul><li>Democracies: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more predictable long run growth rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce greater short term stability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Handle shocks much better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deliver more equality </li></ul></ul>
    38. 38. Section 3 Poverty and Wealth
    39. 39. Main messages <ul><li>Orthodox economics must be expanded to incorporate environment and unpaid work </li></ul><ul><li>Markets, and poor peoples’ involvement in them, are evolving rapidly, raising new threats and opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Redistributing power in markets is essential to reducing inequality and overcoming poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Redistribution is not the only issue: effective states are needed to generate growth where it benefits poor people most, provide infrastructure, and build national technological capabilities </li></ul>
    40. 40. Economics for the 21 st Century <ul><li>Orthodox economics and its indicators (income GDP etc.) lead to biased policies and blind spots in crucial areas of poverty and inequality </li></ul><ul><li>A new economics of human sustainability must address: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental constraints and sustainability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-monetary economics, e.g. unpaid women’s work </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weighting policies and outcomes for equity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on well-being, not just income </li></ul></ul>
    41. 41. Economics for the 21 st Century
    42. 43. Making agriculture pro-poor <ul><li>Small farmer based agricultural growth has led to take-off in Viet Nam, India, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Requires both Effective States and Active Citizens acquiring power in markets </li></ul><ul><li>Active Citizens: producer organization, consumers </li></ul><ul><li>Effective States: access to credit, investment, pro-poor technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Good news: commodity prices, biofuels (perhaps) and shift to low carbon production </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges: supermarketization; outmigration </li></ul><ul><li>Dilemma: food v feed v fuel – can we have all 3? </li></ul>
    43. 44. How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in India
    44. 45. How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in India <ul><li>Fishing ponds crucial to 45,000 families in Bundelkhand </li></ul><ul><li>Technology change (new fish varieties and stocking) prompted a new wave of seizures by landlords </li></ul><ul><li>Protests got support from state government for fishing cooperatives – basis for mobilisation </li></ul><ul><li>Dirty tricks and some violence were a turning point </li></ul><ul><li>NGOs brokered relations with police and politicians </li></ul><ul><li>100 ponds now under fishers’ control </li></ul>
    45. 46. Decent work
    46. 47. Decent work <ul><li>Several trends are driving up inequality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Flexibilization and rise of the informal economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Downward pressure on labour rights </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Incorporation of women brings mix of costs and benefits </li></ul><ul><li>What needs to change: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rebuild and change trade unions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reform supply chain management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recognize role of unpaid work </li></ul></ul>
    47. 48. Private sector, public interest <ul><li>Private firms create jobs, buy and sell to the poor, pay taxes and generate externalities </li></ul><ul><li>The human impact of any firm is firstly determined by sector, but within that different firms can choose to be more or less pro-poor </li></ul><ul><li>TNCs differ from large national firms on linkages, technology, capital flows and employment </li></ul><ul><li>Active Citizens ensure the private sector benefits the poor (trade unions, consumer organizations) </li></ul><ul><li>Effective States need to regulate and refocus attention on SMEs and national capital </li></ul>
    48. 49. Trade and development <ul><li>Trade is booming </li></ul><ul><li>Trade can be a crucial tool in overcoming poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Rigged rules and double standards </li></ul><ul><li>Official story in conflict with evidence on trade liberalization: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some liberalization-led take offs in agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In manufacturing protection and state-led industrialization is the norm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Liberalization as an outcome not an initial condition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rise of China could change the script, by overcoming commodity trap and kicking away the ladder from other developing countries </li></ul>
    49. 50. Average annual growth 1990-2005
    50. 51. Making growth work for development <ul><li>Growth has always been central to development – redistribution on its own seldom works </li></ul><ul><li>But growth is becoming more disequalizing and less effective at reducing poverty </li></ul><ul><li>So how to make growth work for poor people? </li></ul>
    51. 52. How change happens: Botswana <ul><li>Should be a basket case: small, arid, land-locked and dependent on diamonds </li></ul><ul><li>Instead is Africa’s most enduring success story – GDP per capita is up 100x since 1966 </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons include traditional inclusive governance system, leadership, hands-on role for the state, lucky timing on diamonds and good use of aid and technical assistance </li></ul>
    52. 53. Section 4 Risk and Vulnerability
    53. 54. Main messages <ul><li>Risk and vulnerability are central to the experience of being poor </li></ul><ul><li>Shocks reinforce each other and have long-term impacts on health and well-being </li></ul><ul><li>Real (human) security lies through a combination of empowerment and protection by effective, accountable states </li></ul><ul><li>But the concept of security has been devalued by the war on terror </li></ul>
    54. 55. Causes of vulnerability
    55. 56. Causes of death worldwide
    56. 57. Social protection is spreading <ul><li>Social assistance and social insurance </li></ul><ul><li>One of most effective ways to reduce vulnerability, esp. for the chronic poor (elderly, disabled etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Response to failure of targeted safety nets and food aid </li></ul><ul><li>Social protection bridges gap between emergencies and development – challenge to Oxfam </li></ul><ul><li>South Africa, Brazil arguing for universal basic income guarantee – could it work at a global level? </li></ul>
    57. 58. How change happens: India’s employment guarantee scheme
    58. 59. How change happens: India’s employment guarantee scheme <ul><li>All rural Indians are now guaranteed 100 days work a year </li></ul><ul><li>Grew from activist legal campaigns in Rajasthan and spread of ‘rights consciousness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Congress adopted scheme in 2004 election manifesto, not expecting to win </li></ul><ul><li>Sonia Gandhi and activism were crucial to ensure implementation after the election </li></ul>
    59. 60. Finance and vulnerability
    60. 61. Finance and vulnerability <ul><li>Access to credit, insurance and savings are critical in coping with shocks </li></ul><ul><li>Microcredit is booming and going commercial, and is now being followed by other microfinance </li></ul><ul><li>8 out of 10 borrowers are women, with very high repayment rates (98% according to Grameen) </li></ul><ul><li>Has microfinance been oversold? Indebtedness, repayment burden and ‘forced borrowing’ </li></ul>
    61. 62. Hunger and famine
    62. 63. Hunger and famine <ul><li>Until current price crisis, hunger stuck at 850 million, but famine deaths have fallen </li></ul><ul><li>Hunger reflects power and inequality - 400m people in developing countries are now obese </li></ul><ul><li>Undernourishment in foetus and infancy are particularly damaging </li></ul><ul><li>Dealing with hunger relies primarily on self reliance and effective accountable states </li></ul><ul><li>Current crisis driven by switch to meat, biofuels, climate change, oil prices, and possibly speculation </li></ul>
    63. 64. Health and maternal mortality: one woman dies needlessly every minute <ul><li>A woman’s risk of dying ranges from one in seven in Niger to one in 47,600 in Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>Children who have lost their mothers are up to ten times more likely to die prematurely </li></ul><ul><li>More progress on other health issues, e.g. access to water and sanitation, immunization, life expectancy </li></ul><ul><li>‘ First world’ ailments such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are on the rise </li></ul><ul><li>Answer lies in investing in public health systems </li></ul>
    64. 65. Pandemics such as HIV will persist, but can be contained <ul><li>Illness and death drives individuals and families into poverty </li></ul><ul><li>At societal level, pandemics can set development back decades </li></ul><ul><li>New ‘zoonotic’ diseases may follow HIV in years to come (e.g. avian flu, SARS) </li></ul><ul><li>Active Citizenship is particularly important for diseases that have no cure, like HIV </li></ul><ul><li>Political leadership can make or break response (Brazil v South Africa) </li></ul><ul><li>Global collaboration showed effectiveness in case of SARS outbreak of 2002/3 </li></ul>
    65. 66. How change happens: t he Treatment Action Campaign
    66. 67. How change happens: the Treatment Action Campaign <ul><li>TAC is an organization of HIV positive people in South Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Led a campaign against big pharmaceuticals in court cases of 2001, then moved on to South African government, demanding access to antiretrovirals </li></ul><ul><li>Used legal challenges, official participatory structures, outsider tactics and alliances </li></ul><ul><li>Partial progress in changing government policy </li></ul>
    67. 68. Natural disasters <ul><li>Deaths have halved over last 30 years (to 200 a day) due to risk reduction such as early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Natural disasters highlight inequality– hit poor countries and communities hardest </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster preparedness and risk reduction require Active Citizens and Effective States </li></ul><ul><li>Improving ‘downward accountability’ is a priority </li></ul>
    68. 69. Climate change is already hitting poor countries and people <ul><li>Rich countries created the problem; poor countries/communities will be worst hit through drought, floods, disease and falling agricultural yields </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts already occurring (e.g. for pastoralists) </li></ul><ul><li>Helping victims adapt will be essential whatever happens on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) </li></ul><ul><li>Will also mean ‘climate proofing’ existing development programmes </li></ul><ul><li>This requires technology transfer, self organization, diversifying livelihoods and effective state support </li></ul><ul><li>i.e. climate change means that good development becomes more urgent than ever </li></ul>
    69. 70. Conflict is both symptom and cause of poverty and inequality <ul><li>Violence, poverty and inequality are interwoven – against women, crime, abuse by authorities, civil war </li></ul><ul><li>Progress on gender-based violence through legislation and women’s organization </li></ul><ul><li>After bloody 20 th C, post Cold War has left rump of 30 ‘poverty conflicts’ mainly in Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict = failure of politics, but some have acquired economic logic of their own </li></ul><ul><li>Active Citizens: self organization to reduce conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Effective States: including providing livelihoods for ex-combatants </li></ul>
    70. 71. Dilemma: shocks and change <ul><li>History shows that shocks and their aftermath are crucial ‘moments of opportunity’ for change </li></ul><ul><li>But when shocks hit, outside ‘change agents’ like Oxfam either leave or go quiet! </li></ul><ul><li>How could we change our response to shocks in order to promote positive change as well as humanitarian relief? </li></ul>
    71. 72. Section 5 The International System
    72. 73. Main messages <ul><li>International system must do more of some things, less of others. This includes: </li></ul><ul><li>More attention to governance of global public goods and bads, including climate change, migration, taxation, and knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Stop doing harm’ on issues such as trade, arms trade, corruption, climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Support national development processes, by backing Active Citizens and Effective States </li></ul><ul><li>Democracy and accountability in global institutions </li></ul>
    73. 74. Global governance growing but no overall plan. Ideally, role includes: <ul><li>Regulating the global economy </li></ul><ul><li>Co-ordinating big countries (e.g. via G8) </li></ul><ul><li>Redistributing wealth, technology, and knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Averting environmental or health threats </li></ul><ul><li>Avoiding/managing war </li></ul><ul><li>Preventing powerful countries or corporations from harming weaker and poorer ones </li></ul><ul><li>Protecting the most vulnerable </li></ul><ul><li>Changing attitudes and beliefs </li></ul>
    74. 75. World Bank and IMF <ul><li>25 years of adjustment-based lending are coming to an end (thankfully). IFIs are at crossroads </li></ul><ul><li>Failure and eclipse of Washington Consensus, but </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bank has changed more than the Fund </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Washington changed more than ‘the field’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New direction should involve: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on global public goods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Separate policy advice from lending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Return focus to rich country policy failure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reform institutions (starting with the bosses) </li></ul></ul>
    75. 76. Finance
    76. 77. Finance <ul><li>$3 trillion crosses borders every day (100 x trade) </li></ul><ul><li>Finance most volatile form of cross border flow and least suitable for rapid liberalization </li></ul><ul><li>Financial crises becoming deeper and more frequent, usually followed by massive bailouts, ratcheting up inequality </li></ul><ul><li>Capital controls can be useful tools, but are being pegged back by BITs, RTAs </li></ul><ul><li>International action is needed to reduce tax evasion/avoidance (est. $385bn per year) </li></ul><ul><li>International taxation (e.g. carbon, arms, Tobin) and global tax institutions could raise $, or agree global floor on corporation tax </li></ul>
    77. 78. Trade: rigged rules and double standards <ul><li>Prevalent in 5 areas: barriers, subsidies, forced liberalization, intellectual property, and migration </li></ul><ul><li>Global focus on WTO has hidden growing importance of RTAs and BITs with ‘WTO plus’ clauses </li></ul><ul><li>Paralysis of Doha is a symptom of shift to multi-polar world v mercantilist negotiating </li></ul><ul><li>Trade realities remain more important than trade rules </li></ul><ul><li>TNCs have imbalance of rights v responsibilities </li></ul>
    78. 79. Intellectual property: knowledge protectionism <ul><li>IP = patents, copyrights, and trademarks </li></ul><ul><li>A developed, innovating “North” and a developing, imitating “South” makes knowledge flows crucial </li></ul><ul><li>Balance between encouraging innovation and spreading knowledge destroyed by TRIPs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2005, developing countries paid out $17bn in royalty and licence fees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TRIPS keeps medicines expensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biopiracy is widespread </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Replace TRIPs with an access to knowledge convention? </li></ul>
    79. 80. Migration <ul><li>A common and effective response to poverty </li></ul><ul><li>The last great protectionism (along with knowledge) </li></ul><ul><li>Those who do migrate face barriers and mistreatment </li></ul><ul><li>Current remittance flows to developing countries = $240bn – poverty reduction and protection against shocks </li></ul><ul><li>Objections are often misplaced, but a political minefield </li></ul><ul><li>Best option: enhanced temporary migration </li></ul><ul><li>Do we need a World Migration Organization? </li></ul>
    80. 81. Harnessing the transnationals <ul><li>Privileges and powers but few responsibilities </li></ul><ul><li>Growth driven by changes in business, technology, and politics </li></ul><ul><li>Concerns include value chains, labour rights, extractive industries, and corruption </li></ul><ul><li>Good progress at UN and sectoral level, e.g. anti-corruption conventions </li></ul><ul><li>Disputed progress on ‘corporate social responsibility’ </li></ul><ul><li>Rise in southern TNCs e.g. in telecoms, mining, forestry, infrastructure </li></ul>
    81. 82. Aid <ul><li>Successes: Marshall Plan, take-off countries, EU structural funds </li></ul><ul><li>Altruism, hubris, and self interest </li></ul><ul><li>Turnaround since 2000, but donors backtracking on promises and serious quality problems </li></ul><ul><li>How can aid support development? </li></ul><ul><li>Do: fund watchdogs, fund long-term, support state capacity, put government in the driving seat, ensure downwards accountability </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t: impose conditions, support parallel systems, and poach staff </li></ul>
    82. 83. How change happens: the Gleneagles agreement
    83. 84. How change happens: the Gleneagles agreement <ul><li>2005 G8 a high point for aid campaigners: leaders agreed to raise aid levels by $50bn by 2010 and deepen debt write-off </li></ul><ul><li>Despite subsequent backsliding, still an important statement of intent </li></ul><ul><li>Combination of government (e.g. Commission for Africa) and civil society activism (Make Poverty History and celebrities) </li></ul><ul><li>Repetition important at G8 (cf. climate change) </li></ul><ul><li>Tsunami and London bombings were factors </li></ul>
    84. 85. Dilemma: is aid like oil? <ul><li>Impact on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy (conditionality) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutions (transaction costs, paying the piper) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Politics (severing the social contract) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How big is the political deficit, and how can good aid overcome it? </li></ul>
    85. 86. International NGOs <ul><li>Growth and shift from project to advocacy, and from national to global </li></ul><ul><li>3 main functions: implementers, catalysts, partners </li></ul><ul><li>Major challenges: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accountability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationship to local activists and NGOs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Funding/profile driven </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationship to the state </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make the UN look streamlined… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Being sucked into service delivery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Too cautious </li></ul></ul>
    86. 87. Climate change: a global problem needs global solutions <ul><li>Mitigation involves combination of standards, subsidies and taxes </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto II = key global governance event in coming years </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation funding also vital, Oxfam estimates $50bn a year needed </li></ul><ul><li>Concerns on carbon trading as main response </li></ul>
    87. 88. Adaptation funding responsibilities
    88. 89. Dilemma: are there environmental limits to growth? <ul><li>Increasing environmental constraints on growth have profound implications for economic policy and the battle against inequality </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon intensity of growth and its efficiency in reducing poverty and inequality will become more critical </li></ul><ul><li>Can the system achieve a low carbon growth model and if not, what has to change? </li></ul>
    89. 90. Carbon intensity: falling too slowly, and has now gone into reverse
    90. 91. What level of technology transfer is required? 1.6 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Fuel Switching (1) CO2 Capture & Storage (3) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) Nuclear Fission (1)
    91. 92. The humanitarian system <ul><li>Only 6% of total aid </li></ul><ul><li>Improving but still a mess. Main failings: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Too little too late, but CERF is hopeful </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distributed according to CNN or geopolitics, rather than need </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Too many organizations. UN particularly byzantine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Humanitarian aid warped by food aid – expensive, demeaning and can undermine local agriculture </li></ul>
    92. 93. Peace and peace-keeping <ul><li>‘ Responsibility to Protect’ – an important UN achievement </li></ul><ul><li>Force should only be last resort </li></ul><ul><li>UN blue helmets up 6 x since 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Rich countries give $, poor ones give soldiers </li></ul><ul><li>Does UN need a standing military force? </li></ul><ul><li>Arms Trade Treaty needed </li></ul><ul><li>War on terror undermines peace-keeping/R2P </li></ul>
    93. 94. How change happens: the landmines ban
    94. 95. How change happens: the landmines ban <ul><li>1997 ban treaty has led to a sharp fall in deaths. In 2005 only Myanmar, Russia and Nepal acknowledged using them and producer countries were down from 50 to 13 </li></ul><ul><li>Ban rode post Cold War wave of optimism </li></ul><ul><li>International Campaign to Ban Landmines worked closely with a handful of governments, e.g. Canada, Norway, Austria, and South Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Gained momentum by moving outside UN system and insisting on total ban – no watering down </li></ul>
    95. 96. Conclusion A New Deal For A New Century
    96. 97. Elements of a new deal <ul><li>Active Citizens </li></ul><ul><li>Effective States </li></ul><ul><li>A new economics </li></ul><ul><li>What role for rich countries/institutions? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Do no harm </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Solve global problems that need global solutions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Support Active Citizens and Effective States </li></ul></ul></ul>
    97. 98. The last word: <ul><li>Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable... Over the bleached bones of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: Too late. </li></ul><ul><li>Martin Luther King, 1968 </li></ul>“ ”

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