Ethnicity and Democracy Findings from Afrobarometer:Round 6 Survey in Zambia

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In the first release of Afrobarometer findings in Zambia, a majority (74%) say they prefer #democracy to any other kind of government. Find out more in this presentation.

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  • Ethnicity and Democracy Findings from Afrobarometer:Round 6 Survey in Zambia

    1. 1. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG ETHNICITY AND DEMOCRACY Findings from Afrobarometer Round 6 Survey in Zambia
    2. 2. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG What is Afrobarometer? • An African-led, non-partisan survey research project that measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy, civil society, and other topics. • Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to 35 African countries in Round 5 (2011-2013). • Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans. • National Partners in each country conduct the survey. In Zambia, Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted by RuralNet Associates Ltd.
    3. 3. Where Afrobarometer works
    4. 4. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Methodology • Nationally representative sample of adult citizens  All respondents are randomly selected.  Sample is distributed across provinces and urban/rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population.  Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected. • Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s choice. • Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and over time. • Sample size in Zambia of 1,200 adult citizens yields a margin of error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level. • Fieldwork for Round 6 in Zambia was conducted between 1 and 31 October 2014.
    5. 5. Enumerator map Note: the numbers in the map refer to the number of enumeration areas (EAs) selected in each district.
    6. 6. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Survey demographics Unweighted Weighted Gender Male 50% 50% Female 50% 50% Total 100% 100% 6 Urban or rural Urban 43% 40% Rural 57% 60% Total 100% 100%
    7. 7. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Survey demographics Unweighted Weighted Province Lusaka 19% 17% Central 10% 10% Copperbelt 16% 15% Eastern 11% 12% Luapula 7% 8% Northern 8% 8% North-Western 5% 6% Southern 11% 12% Western 7% 7% Muchinga 5% 5% Total 100% 100%
    8. 8. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Survey demographics Unweighted Weighted Education No formal education 8% 8% Primary 35% 34% Secondary 43% 44% Post-secondary 13% 13%
    9. 9. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Results
    10. 10. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Ethnicity in Zambia
    11. 11. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Key findings ■ Zambia is a highly ethnically diverse country, with nine out of 10 (88%) chance that if one picked two Zambians at random, they would belong to two different tribes. ■ About one in 10 (12%) Zambians have intense feelings of belonging to their tribal grouping at the expense of national identity. ■ About half of Zambians (50%) have strong feelings of belonging to their ethnic group (tribe) while at the same time feeling a part of Zambia.
    12. 12. Tribe (ethnic group) Survey question text: What is your ethnic community, cultural group or tribe? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Bemba Tonga Lozi Chewa Namwanga Kaonde Nsenga Ngoni Tumbuka Lala Lunda Nyanja Luvale Bisa Mambwe Ila Kunda Lamba Ushi Soli Lenje Tokaleya Nkoya Chokwe Senga Lungu Ndebele Mbunda Chikunda Nyika Luchazi Tabwa Chiyaba Sala Ngumbo Shila Lambia Shona % Share Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
    13. 13. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings? 4% 8% 50% 5% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% I feel only (ethnic group) I feel more (ethnic group) than (national identity) I feel equally (national identity) and (ethnic group) I feel more (national identity) than (ethnic group) I feel only (national identity)
    14. 14. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings, 2012,2014 Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings? 4 8 50 5 29 42 4 59 7 27 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 I feel only (ethnic group) I feel more (ethnic group) than (national identity) I feel equally (national identity) and (ethnic group) I feel more (national identity) than (ethnic group) I feel only (national identity) Missing 2014 2012 Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
    15. 15. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings, by Province Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a ________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings? Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm 26 24 21 12 12 8 6 5 5 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
    16. 16. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Democracy in Zambia
    17. 17. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Key findings ■ A majority of Zambians (74%) say they prefer democracy to any other kind of government. ■ Close to seven out of 10 Zambians (65%) say Zambia is either a full democracy, or a democracy with minor problems. ■ About eight out of 10 Zambians say the 2011 elections were either completely free and fair, or free and fair but with minor problems.
    18. 18. Demand for the democratic ideal Question text: Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? STATEMENT 1: Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. STATEMENT 2: In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable. STATEMENT 3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have. 10% 6% 74% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Democracy or no democracy - it doesn’t matter Sometimes non- democratic preferable Democracy preferable Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
    19. 19. Rejection of Undemocratic Alternatives 63 18 2 10 5 3 71 19 1 4 2 2 66 22 2 4 310 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 One Party Rule Military rule One Man Rule
    20. 20. A verdict on Zambia’s democracy Question: In your opinion how much of a democracy is Zambia today? Not a democracy 2% A democracy, with major problem 24% A democracy, but with minor problems 34% A full democracy 31% Do not understand question /democracy 3% Don’t know 6%
    21. 21. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG ETHNICITY AND DEMOCRACY: DO THEY MOVE TOGETHER? Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
    22. 22. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Key findings ■ There is an association between ethnicity and support for the democratic ideal (chi square test p-value =0.045). ■ Even individuals with strong ethnic feelings prefer the democratic ideal. ■ There is also a relationship between ethnic feelings and the extents to which individuals think Zambia is democracy (chi square test p-value =0.000).
    23. 23. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Ethnic feelings and support of democracy ETHNIC FEELINGS . SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY Democracy or not: Doesn't matter Sometimes non- democratic preferable Democracy preferable I feel only ethnic group .1% .4% 3.8% I feel more ethnic group than national identity 1.1% .5% 6.0% I feel equally national identity and (ethnic group 4.8% 2.9% 46.5% I feel more national identity than ethnic group 1.0% .2% 3.9% I feel only national identity 3.8% 2.9% 22.0% Total 10.7% 6.8% 82.3%
    24. 24. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Ethnic Feelings and extent of democratization ETHNIC FEELINGS . EXTENT OF DEMOCRATIZATION Not a democracy A democracy, with major problems A democracy, but with minor problems A full democracy Do not understand question /democracy I feel only ethnic group .3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9% I feel more ethnic group than national identity .3% 2.3% 3.1% 1.4% I feel equally national identity and (ethnic group .7% 14.5% 21.5% 14.2% 1.5% I feel more national identity than ethnic group .2% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% .2% I feel only national identity 1.0% 5.9% 9.0% 13.9% .8%
    25. 25. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Conclusions • Zambia is an ethnically diverse country, and tribe is not a mere placid label, but an identity with potential to invoke strong tribal feelings that may undermine the sense of nationalism. • The intensity of tribal feelings appear to be growing. • As a policy direction, government should seriously embark on nation-building strategies to reverse this apparent trend towards tribal inclinations. • Though ethnically diverse, Zambian’s prefer democracy to non democratic means of governance. Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia Telephone: +260 211 293 529 Fax: +260 211 295 178 Cell: +260 966 862 678 Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm

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