Barrack Okoba: Agricultural land management: capturing synergies between climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and agricultural productivity

SYNERGIES AMONG ADAPTATION, MITIGATION, AND PROFITABILITY Elizabeth Bryan, Claudia Ringler, Barrack Okoba, Jawoo Koo, Mario Herrero, and Silvia Silvestri Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-11 March 2011

Agricultural scenes - Land degradation, reducing livestock,

Background
Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, because of their limited capacity to adapt.
The development challenges in most of the African countries are considerable (poverty rate, labour force dependency on agriculture), and climate change will only add to these.
Efforts to facilitate adaptation are needed to enhance the resilience of the agriculture sector, ensure food security, and reduce rural poverty.
Not only is adaptation needed to increase the resilience of poor farmers to the threat of climate change, it also offers co-benefits in terms of agricultural mitigation and productivity.

Background
Many of the practices that increase resilience to climate change also increase agricultural productivity/profitability and reduce GHG emissions from agriculture. At the same time, there may be tradeoffs between increasing farm productivity/profitability, adaptation, and mitigation.
To maximize synergies and reduce trade-offs implicit in various crop, livestock, and land management practices, a more holistic view of food security, agricultural adaptation, mitigation, and development is required.
Policymakers should aim to promote adaptation strategies that have the greatest co-benefits in terms of agricultural productivity, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development.
There is little research to date on the synergies and tradeoffs between agricultural adaptation, mitigation, and productivity impacts.

Low High Food Security Prospects Mitigation Potential Source: Adapted from FAO (2009) Synergies and Tradeoffs between Mitigation and Food Security Biofuels Conservation tillage/ residue management Integrated soil fertility management Improved seed Irrigation (low energy using..) Conservation tillage/residue management Improved fallow Overgrazing Soil nutrient mining Bare fallow GW pumping Mechanized farming Low High

SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS Adaptation Mitigation Profitability

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Linkage between Palmer Drought Severity Index and GDP Growth IFPRI (2006)

SYNERGIES: WHAT THE LITERATURE SUGGESTS Management practices Productivity Variability Adaptation Mitigation potential short term long term Improved crop varieties and/or types ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ Depends on variety/type Changing planting dates ↓ +++ Improved crop/fallow ↓ ↑ ++ High, particularly for rotation with legumes rotation/rotation with legumes Use of cover crops ↑ ↑ ++ High Appropriate fertilizer/manure use ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High, particularly when underutilized as in SSA Incorporation of crop residues ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High Reduced/zero tillage ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Agroforestry ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Irrigation/water harvesting ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ when well designed and maintained Low to high depending on whether irrigation is energy intensive or not Bunds, terraces, ridge and furrow, diversion ditches ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Low, minus soil carbon losses due to construction Grass strips ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Positive mitigation benefits Sources: FAO 2009, Smith et al. 2008

PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Assessment CC and CV impacts on agriculture in Kenya
Assess HH and community adaptation strategies available
Identify agricultural land management practices that help address CV and CC, ag mitigation and productivity
Identify determinants of adaptation
Assess the feasibility of adaptation options.
Identify public action to support adaptation options

STUDY SITES & DESIGN Project District Agroecological zone Freq. ALRMP and Control* Garissa Arid 134 ALRMP Mbeere South Semi Arid 97 Control Njoro Semi Arid 104 SMS, Ltd. Mukurweini Temperate 95 Control Othaya Temperate 88 Vi Agroforestry Gem Humid 96 Control Siaya Humid 96 Total 710 *The survey covered households in Garissa that participated in ALRMP (66) as well as those that did not (68).

METHODS TO ASSESS SYNERGIES/TRADEOFFS
Descriptive analysis of land management practices and adaptation strategies
Just and Pope production function to show yield and yield variability implications of management strategies
The CERES-Maize 4.5 model and DSSAT-CENTURY module to simulate maize growth/yield and soil organic matter dynamics
ILRI livestock simulation model

WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND?

WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND Land management practice Arid Semi-Arid Temperate Humid Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Soil bunds 0 0 34 20 14 10 23 20 Bench terrace 0 0 2 1 14 29 1 2 Residues 5 12 13 12 4 5 25 15 Grass strips 0 0 17 17 12 9 10 11 Crop rotation/ fallowing 3 - 14 - 9 - 14 - Ridge and furrow 43 12 2 43 10 25 11 60 Inorganic fertilizer 3 0 29 0 76 15 40 0 Manure 43 28 24 20 63 12 37 5

Land management practices and resource use

ADAPTATION

WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES HAVE FARMERS ADOPTED?

WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES WOULD FARMERS LIKE TO ADOPT?

MITIGATION

ARE FARMERS AWARE THAT AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
67% of farmers stated that they are aware
Extensive media reports
Government campaigns and speeches related to climate change
1 st Ag Carbon Mitigation project located in Kenya

FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES THAT REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE (%)

ABOVE GROUND CARBON STOCK BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES

YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-SAND)

YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-CLAY)

TOP MITIGATION PRACTICES (DSSAT)

MANAGEMENT PRACTICES THAT INCREASE SOC (DSSAT MODELING)
Crop residues increase SCS considerably
Inorganic fertilizer only increases SOC when applied with manure, mulching and/or crop residues
Intercropping of maize and beans or rotation of maize and beans—a key management practice used in much of Kenya—has only limited SCS benefits (insufficient biomass generation)

MANAGEMENT PRACTICES THAT INCREASE SOC (DSSAT MODELING)
Soil water conservation technologies—represented as increased soil water availability prior to planting—show mixed results regarding carbon sequestration, even under a drier future, but are important in Arid areas
Results are similar under dry and wet climate scenarios

ARID ZONE SUMMARY
In the arid site, maize yields under rainfed conditions are very low due to limited water availability
Irrigation is essential to achieve reasonable yield levels.
In particular, yields are maximized when SWC and irrigation are combined
Results are similar for both soil types and maize varieties

SEMI-ARID AND TEMPERATE ZONES SUMMARY
In the semi-arid sites, water is somewhat limited
Therefore, SWC management practices and irrigation increase yield levels
However, yield improvements are much larger from higher nitrogen inputs from both fertilizers and manure
Results are similar in the humid/temperate sites

HUMID ZONE SUMMARY
In the sub-humid sites, water is readily available in general, while nitrogen is limited.
As a result:
Effects of SWC techniques are limited
Irrigation lowered the average yield across all management packages, possibly due to the increased nitrogen leaching from the soil

PROFITABILITY/ PRODUCTIVITY

40-year average annual revenues from SOC* and yield** (USD/ha) Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4 RES RES, FERT & MNR RES, FERT, MNR, SWC & ROT FRT, MNR, RES, SWC, ROT, & IRG AEZ Soil Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD/ha) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Arid Clay 1.09 6.14 8.60 150.49 14.76 355.77 23.67 1651.23 Arid Sand 0.69 17.98 1.72 94.12 9.99 536.63 8.20 1391.67 Semi-arid Loam 2.28 149.54 22.22 1180.96 21.66 1363.79 21.10 1522.40 Semi-arid Sand 2.27 71.19 7.59 501.97 5.92 600.27 5.13 661.50 Semi-arid Clay 1.73 256.01 19.41 1921.28 19.19 2235.86 17.31 2337.26 Temperate Loam 1.83 -3.26 23.89 1086.86 23.05 1201.02 21.95 1235.59 Humid Loam 0.31 71.10 12.51 1702.27 12.14 1803.95 11.31 1560.72

WIN-WIN-WIN STRATEGIES

POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Win-win-win strategies among adaptation, mitigation, and profitability do exist, but have yet to be strategically exploited
To do so will require capacity building at national level to ensure that agricultural productivity and food security strategies and policies explicitly include climate change adaptation and mitigation aspects (including NAMA preparation)
Better dialogue between Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Environment (UNFCCC focal point) can support triple-win strategies

POLICY IMPLICATIONS
To exploit agricultural mitigation potential requires
Development of measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) guidelines at national levels and development of baselines
Capacity building for researcher and advisory agents, including development of MRV systems,
Generation and dissemination of triple-win technologies
Advice to farmers based on demand-driven approaches

POLICY IMPLICATIONS
To exploit agricultural mitigation potential requires
Support to project developers of climate-smart/carbon projects in form of project development and implementation
Implementation and application of MRV systems, risk management aspects (e.g. guarantee or loan to be paid back upon ER delivery)

POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Many options for financial support:
Carbon markets
Adaptation funds
Mitigation funds/NAMAs with less strict MRV requirements
Financial instruments such as guarantees/loans to private sector (and other institutions)
Micro-finance

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL – “so far, our adaptive gears are getting undermined, we need help” – future farmers in Arid Kenya
THANK YOU

Barrack Okoba: Agricultural land management: capturing synergies between climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and agricultural productivity

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Barrack Okoba: Agricultural land management: capturing synergies between climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and agricultural productivity Presentation Transcript