Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia

Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Outline
S tudy background
Objectives
Methodology
Findings
Conclusions
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Study background

Context
General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa
A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa
Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia
Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based

Objectives

Aim
Establish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future climatic change

Perceptions related to decision making
Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in perception, cognition or the lack of available information
Attribution
Understand perceptions on non-climate risks

Objectives of the study
Farmer perceptions regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods
Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks

Methodology

Approach to the study 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Findings 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Zimbabwe Zambia Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010) Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000) Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9 Shorter rain seasons Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than before Shift in highest temperature periods Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters

Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Perceptions regarding causes 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Causes of CC & V Monze % Sinazongwe % Lupane % Lower Gweru % Natural causes 34 35 24 31 Deforestation 33 17 5 14 Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs 3 7 45 27 Does not know 30 41 26 28

Stressors
Financial
Market constraints
Livestock/crop diseases
Agricultural inputs
Weakened government capacity
Inadequate draught power/farming implements
Climate related
HIV and AIDS
Low soil fertility

Zambia 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income Insecure livelihoods Total Rank Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1 Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2 Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3 Few dams 10 15 8 33 4 Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5 Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6 Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7

Zimbabwe 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Loss of crop yield Loss of income Insecure livelihood Total Rank Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought) 18 16 16 50 1 Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2 Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3 Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads 10 18 12 40 4 HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5 Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6

Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Conclusions

Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports
Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability
Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes
Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors

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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia

by AfricaAdapt on Mar 22, 2011

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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia Presentation Transcript