Climate compatible productive and decentworkA way out of poverty and the climatetrap in Ethiopia<br />Marek Harsdorff<br /...
Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century<br />Economic<br />Social<br />growth<br />
Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century<br />Economic<br />Social<br />Poverty <br />Growth<br />
Economic challenge<br />Agriculture (2.5% of land irrigated) account for 46% of GDP and 60% export earnings<br />
Social challenge <br />Farmers, women & youthbuildeconomic basis whilemostvulnearble and affected by shocks<br />
‘GDP of the Poor’<br />India Example: 480 Million people earn livelihood in small farming, animal husbandry, informal fore...
Climate-Economy-Employmentlink<br />Economic Basis<br />Employment MDG1<br />
Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win<br />Employment-ledclimate compatible development<br />5 key area...
‘Hard’ adaptation (water) - Employment intensive insvesment in infrastructure<br />Water harvesting<br />Irrigation<br />F...
‘Soft’ adaptation in skills training focussing on productive employment<br />Tigray Project  <br /><ul><li> Africa 1.9m or...
 rest lack agro-ecological knowledge
 techniques available </li></li></ul><li>Micro-insurance (weather index)<br />Onlypartly solution not for the poor of the ...
Social protection through public works programs <br />Employmentcreation in climate change adaptation<br />NREGA India 59 ...
Economic diversification - renewable energy<br />In SSA 74% do not have access to electricity (561mio)<br />89% of SSA rel...
Economic diversification - pro-poor green value chain development in cut-flower<br />50,000 employed 85% women<br />300 bi...
Reduced vulnerability & energy security</li></li></ul><li>Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win<br />Ma...
Economy and social well-being depend on natural environment and climate<br />Natural <br />Environment <br />& Climate<br ...
Environmental challenges<br />Global temperature increase between 1,5-6 degrees by2100<br />By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8...
Economic challenges<br />1.6% GDP growth in 2009 => down from 4.9% in 2008 <br />average growth over 5% since 6 years but ...
Social Challenges: Employment<br />Agriculture employs 63% in Sub Sahara in 2007 down from 67% in 1998 (33%  North Africa ...
Social Challenges: Health, education…<br />Africa’s population grew by 2,3% in 2009: 1billion today!<br />Strong rural-urb...
Environmental impacts on the      Economy <br />Global Loss of Fisheries… <br /><ul><li>Open Access & Perverse Subsidies a...
 Half of wild marine fisheries are fully exploited, with a further quarter already over-exploited
 at risk :  $ 80-100 billion income from the sector
  at risk : est. 27 million jobs
 at risk : Health … over a billion rely on fish as their main or sole source of animal protein, especially in developing c...
“2048” End of Commercial Fisheries ? <br />2048 ?<br />
Environmental impacts on         Social challenges<br />89% of SSA relies on biomass for cooking<br />In rural areas women...
“2026” End of Fuel Wood in Uganda?<br />
Environmental impacts on           Employment<br />
Environmental impacts on       Economy and Society as a whole: Mozambique Cyclone Eline<br /><ul><li>Massive destruction o...
2 million displaced
1,5 mio livelihoods impacted
350,000 jobs lost</li></ul>Mozambique 2000: Limpopo Bridge<br />
Environmental challenges have an economic and social dimension!<br />Impact on employment in Agriculture, Tourism, Energy,...
     Env. Degradation and CC could impede achievement of Development Goals:<br />as key African economic sectors (agricult...
Win-win-win the concept of Green Jobs<br />Turns Challenges <br />into Opportunities<br />Win for the<br />Environment<br ...
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Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia

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Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia

  1. 1. Climate compatible productive and decentworkA way out of poverty and the climatetrap in Ethiopia<br />Marek Harsdorff<br />Economist<br />Green Jobs Program - International Labor Organisation<br />AfricaAdaptConferenceAddis 9-11 March 2011<br />
  2. 2. Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century<br />Economic<br />Social<br />growth<br />
  3. 3. Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century<br />Economic<br />Social<br />Poverty <br />Growth<br />
  4. 4. Economic challenge<br />Agriculture (2.5% of land irrigated) account for 46% of GDP and 60% export earnings<br />
  5. 5. Social challenge <br />Farmers, women & youthbuildeconomic basis whilemostvulnearble and affected by shocks<br />
  6. 6. ‘GDP of the Poor’<br />India Example: 480 Million people earn livelihood in small farming, animal husbandry, informal forestry…<br />Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in classical GDP<br />7.3 %<br />Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in “GDP of the Poor”<br />57 %<br />Source: GIST’s Green Accounting for Indian States Project, 2002-03 data<br />
  7. 7. Climate-Economy-Employmentlink<br />Economic Basis<br />Employment MDG1<br />
  8. 8. Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win<br />Employment-ledclimate compatible development<br />5 key areas<br />Environment<br />Social<br />Economic<br />Solution?<br />
  9. 9. ‘Hard’ adaptation (water) - Employment intensive insvesment in infrastructure<br />Water harvesting<br />Irrigation<br />Floods control etc.<br />If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries labor-based:<br /> >100 million jobs can be created<br />
  10. 10. ‘Soft’ adaptation in skills training focussing on productive employment<br />Tigray Project <br /><ul><li> Africa 1.9m organic farms
  11. 11. rest lack agro-ecological knowledge
  12. 12. techniques available </li></li></ul><li>Micro-insurance (weather index)<br />Onlypartly solution not for the poor of the poor<br />
  13. 13. Social protection through public works programs <br />Employmentcreation in climate change adaptation<br />NREGA India 59 m<br />PSNP Ethiopia8 m<br />‘Work for insurance’?<br />
  14. 14. Economic diversification - renewable energy<br />In SSA 74% do not have access to electricity (561mio)<br />89% of SSA rely on biomass for cooking<br />Poor spend 12% income on energy, 4x of developed world<br />Out of 34 countries withhighestpotential 17 in Africa<br />
  15. 15. Economic diversification - pro-poor green value chain development in cut-flower<br />50,000 employed 85% women<br />300 birr/month (60$)<br />Farm with 400 empl. 10ha <br />Eco-charcoal 200 sacs 25kg/month = 20,000 birr<br /><ul><li>10% salary & employment creation 1-2%
  16. 16. Reduced vulnerability & energy security</li></li></ul><li>Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win<br />MainstreamingEmployment-ledclimate compatible growth in developping planning and policy<br />e.g NAPA&GTP<br />Environment<br />Social<br />Economic<br />
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Economy and social well-being depend on natural environment and climate<br />Natural <br />Environment <br />& Climate<br />Health, Water & Energy stress<br />Drought affects GDP <br />Social<br />Economic<br />Poverty <br />Growth<br />Jobless growth<br />
  19. 19. Environmental challenges<br />Global temperature increase between 1,5-6 degrees by2100<br />By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected (notably in West Africa: over last 30 years 25% decrease in rainfall)<br />Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise 15-95 centimetres will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations (e.g. Mozambique)<br />The economic lost could amount to 20% of global GDP<br />The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of GDP of Africa (for SSA about $18 billion/year up to 2025)<br />
  20. 20. Economic challenges<br />1.6% GDP growth in 2009 => down from 4.9% in 2008 <br />average growth over 5% since 6 years but no translation into employment growth. <br />Reason: Growth sustained by natural resource extraction sectors (grew by 10%) but employing only 10% of labor force (as capital intensive), agriculture which employs over 50% of labor force grew only by 2.5% and makes 23% of GDP (down from 27% 1999)<br />As a result: factor accumulation growth no total factor productivity growth (no growth based on human and technological progress) <br />Egypt 4.7%, Eritrea 2%, Ethopia 7.5% (non-aricultural growth in service sector), Kenya 2.1%, Lesotho -1%, Malawi 5%, Namibia -0.7%, Nigeria 5.6%, Sudan 3%, Swaziland 0.4%<br />Africa’s key economic sectors and its current development in 2009:<br />Agriculture: falling commodity prices less demand => low invest e.g in coffee, cocoa, cotton.<br />Extraction Industry/ Natural resources/mining: scaled back production due to slow demand<br />Manufacture /natural resource based industries: reduced capacity (Uganda 15 factories closed in fish, tobacco and coffee industry)<br />Tourism: Decline in tourists<br />
  21. 21. Social Challenges: Employment<br />Agriculture employs 63% in Sub Sahara in 2007 down from 67% in 1998 (33% North Africa down from 36%) (99% working in the informal sector) <br />Extractive industry employs 10% unchanged (23% North up from 20%) <br />=> primary commodity production based economy <br />Service 27% up from 22% (44% unchanged North Africa)<br />Informal sector employs 75% in SSA (SA excluded) and 43% in NA<br />7.9% unemployment in Sub Sahara 2008 unchanged over last 10 years (13%=>10% in North Africa) <br />77.4% vulnerable unemployment, 66% self reported unemployment 2002<br />Active population over 60% = 400 million in 2009 up from 230 m in 1990 highest in World: 70% under 30 (of which 17% unemployed in SSA and 34% in North Africa no change over last 10 years)<br />Working poor (those working but earning less than 2$ a day are 82% of working population) in Sub Sahara 2007 (30% in North Africa)<br />
  22. 22. Social Challenges: Health, education…<br />Africa’s population grew by 2,3% in 2009: 1billion today!<br />Strong rural-urban migration (housing, education, health, skills and employment challenge)<br />51% in Sub Sahara live with less than 1,25$/day (3% in North Africa) the same as 1980!<br />School enrolment in Sub Sahara still low: 74% 2007 (96% in North Africa)<br />Life expectancy at birth is over 70 in North Africa and around 50 in Sub Sahara (Malaria is responsible for 91% of all mortalities in Africa)<br />Access to secure drinking water: Only 60% <br />Access to electricity: Only 26%<br />
  23. 23. Environmental impacts on the Economy <br />Global Loss of Fisheries… <br /><ul><li>Open Access & Perverse Subsidies are key drivers of the loss of fisheries
  24. 24. Half of wild marine fisheries are fully exploited, with a further quarter already over-exploited
  25. 25. at risk : $ 80-100 billion income from the sector
  26. 26. at risk : est. 27 million jobs
  27. 27. at risk : Health … over a billion rely on fish as their main or sole source of animal protein, especially in developing countries.</li></ul>We are fishing down the food web to ever smaller species…<br />Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. Original source: Pauly<br />
  28. 28. “2048” End of Commercial Fisheries ? <br />2048 ?<br />
  29. 29. Environmental impacts on Social challenges<br />89% of SSA relies on biomass for cooking<br />In rural areas women carry & search wood for up to 5h/day<br />
  30. 30. “2026” End of Fuel Wood in Uganda?<br />
  31. 31. Environmental impacts on Employment<br />
  32. 32. Environmental impacts on Economy and Society as a whole: Mozambique Cyclone Eline<br /><ul><li>Massive destruction of economic and social capital
  33. 33. 2 million displaced
  34. 34. 1,5 mio livelihoods impacted
  35. 35. 350,000 jobs lost</li></ul>Mozambique 2000: Limpopo Bridge<br />
  36. 36. Environmental challenges have an economic and social dimension!<br />Impact on employment in Agriculture, Tourism, Energy, SMEs, Extractive Industry, Waste, Construction… <br />Health burden increases, by 2030 90 million more people than today will be exposed to malaria (e.g Zimbabwe)<br />The likelihood of civil conflict due to climate change impacts (notably water stress; river borders) could increase by 54%<br />By 2020, 75 - 250 million are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.<br /> By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% (food security/malnutrition) <br />Unabated climate change: economic cost 6-20% GDP by 2080<br />
  37. 37. Env. Degradation and CC could impede achievement of Development Goals:<br />as key African economic sectors (agriculture, natural commodities and tourism) are highly affected; and<br />as the lowest social class of the poor is hit hardest<br />Is there a way out of the Dilemma?<br />
  38. 38. Win-win-win the concept of Green Jobs<br />Turns Challenges <br />into Opportunities<br />Win for the<br />Environment<br />Sustainable use of resources<br />Win for the poor<br />Win for the Economy<br />Employment intensive growth and benefit from environmental service<br />Growth based on technological progress and efficiency <br />
  39. 39. Green Jobs translate growth into social progress and employment<br /><ul><li>Prospects for Africa 2010: Growth 3-5%, but highdependent on export of primarycommodities => jobslessgrowth
  40. 40. UNECA 2010: If growthis to besustained and translatedinto social progress and employment: shift growthpolesfrom extractive industries to higheffecientemployment intensive poles: agriculture & agro-industry (e.g. organic-) and service (e.g. renewableenergy)
  41. 41. Increase Total Factor Productivitygrowth (e.g. technologytransfer in renewableenergywhereAfrica has a comparative advantage)</li></li></ul><li>Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Fishery<br />
  42. 42. Benefits from Ecological Restoration <br />
  43. 43. Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Forests<br />75% of the population in Sub Sahara Africa depend for their livelihoods on non timber forest products <br />Sustainable forest management can:<br /> create massive employment, provide for livelihoods, <br />make a significant contribution to the fight against climate change,<br /> combat desertification and land degradation. <br />
  44. 44. Natural Conservation creates revenues and job opportunities <br />Balmford et al, 2002, “Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature”, Science 297, estimates Protected Areas could produce goods and services valued at between $ 4,400 billion - $ 5,200 billion per annum<br />Natural Capital : Present Value (PV) of a constant service annuity of $ 5,000 billion per annum, discounted @ 4% per annum<br />Estimate of the number employed directly in the maintenance, protection, and oversight of Protected Areas globally <br />Global Business Sector estimates from Global Markets Centre (“GMC”), Deutsche Bank<br />
  45. 45. Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Infrastructure adaptation<br />Infrastructure to control flash-floods<br />If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries in water and roads will be labor-based:<br /> >100 m jobs in developing countries created<br />
  46. 46. Economic and labour market impacts on balance<br />Net gain in jobs from active climate and environmental policies<br />Large potential in developing countries<br />Only decent + green jobs help to meet the tripple challenge<br />Environmental<br />Social<br />Economic<br />
  47. 47. EU rational to move to 30% target!What is Africa doing about with the highest renewable potential ?<br />"If we stick to a 20% cut, Europe is likely to lose the race to compete in the low-carbon world to countries such as China, Japan or the US, all of which are looking to create a more attractive environment for low-carbon investment," the France, German and UK ministers wrote in the Financial Times 15 July 2010. And Africa?<br />
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