Data driven decision making:
Avoiding pitfalls and building value
08.04.2012, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens
1
Aeria Games and ProSiebenSat.1 Games have
combined forces on April 1, 2014
Industry leading monetization
Unparalleled ma...
2
Some facts on the combined business
Registered Users
Countries Serviced
Game Licenses Operated
Mobile Share of Revenues
...
3
Data driven decision-making effectively drives almost all
aspects of our business at Aeria
Talent Product Acquisition Re...
4
At Aeria, decision making starts with strong values
VALUES
5
Hiring the right talent is the basis for success
• Don’t hire (only) gamers
TALENT
• Put them through „boot camp“
• Let ...
6
Picking the right games is not an easy feat
PRODUCT
Target Group Fit
Committed Developer
Proven Success
Adequate Art Sty...
7
Lifetime Value
(365d ARPU)
Customer Acquisition Funnel
Buy & Spend
Aeria Points
(7d Conversion)
Return to
Play
(3d Reten...
8
…but the equation can get mighty complex
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
S...
9
Retention rates can tell you a lot…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
29.09.
02.10.
05.10.
08.10.
11.10.
14.10.
17.10.
20.1...
10
…if you know how to read them
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
29.09.
02.10.
05.10.
08.10.
11.10.
14.10.
17.10.
20.10.
23...
11
However, sometimes, the answers are
less than obvious
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
6.1.2012
6.3.2012
6.5.2012
6.7.2012
6...
12
Especially, when soccer is involved
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
6.1.2012
6.3.2012
6.5.2012
6.7.2012
6.9.2012
6.11.2012
...
13
Good sales strategy is fueled by analytics
Monthly Product Sales PlanContinuous KPI Analysis
1 [ 0- 5 )
2 [ 5- 50)
3 [ ...
14
Season #1
 Price: $12 per spin
 No. of Spins: 16
 No. of Jackpots: 1,500
Season #2
 Price: $25 per spin
 No. of Sp...
15
Beware… It’s a trap! (at least sometimes)
 Data consistency can be a b*tch
 Correlation ≠ Causation
 What get’s meas...
Data driven decision making:
Avoiding pitfalls and building value
08.04.2014, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens
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Aeria Games and Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value

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In this presentation, COO of Aeria Games, Dr. Stefan Behrens took a look at how using metrics in making operational and corporate decisions has built significant value for Aeria Games. Careful interpretation of the data is needed for success and this presentation will show what Aeria Games has learned in the past, and how these lessons have helped to build a successful company based on data analysis.

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Aeria Games and Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value

  1. 1. Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value 08.04.2012, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens
  2. 2. 1 Aeria Games and ProSiebenSat.1 Games have combined forces on April 1, 2014 Industry leading monetization Unparalleled marketing power Strong developer relationships Best-in-class operations Global communities & reach Top 3 player in Europe &
  3. 3. 2 Some facts on the combined business Registered Users Countries Serviced Game Licenses Operated Mobile Share of Revenues 35 77m 16% 39 &
  4. 4. 3 Data driven decision-making effectively drives almost all aspects of our business at Aeria Talent Product Acquisition Retention Monetization Values
  5. 5. 4 At Aeria, decision making starts with strong values VALUES
  6. 6. 5 Hiring the right talent is the basis for success • Don’t hire (only) gamers TALENT • Put them through „boot camp“ • Let them crunch numbers • Keep setting the bar higher & higher
  7. 7. 6 Picking the right games is not an easy feat PRODUCT Target Group Fit Committed Developer Proven Success Adequate Art Style
  8. 8. 7 Lifetime Value (365d ARPU) Customer Acquisition Funnel Buy & Spend Aeria Points (7d Conversion) Return to Play (3d Retention) Game Login (Reg-to-Play) Landing Page Registration (Click-to-Reg) Click on Ad Banner (CTR) CTR: 0.23% Clicks: 107,000 Click-to-Reg: 5.6% Regs: 6,000 Reg-to-Play 33% Players: 2,000 3d Retention: 45% Retained: 900 7d Conversion: 8.5% Spenders: 170 $14.09 Max CPC: 0.13 USD Max CPL: 2.35 USD Max CPP: 7.05 USD Marketing: Maximum Customer Cost Calculation Successful acquisition is about balancing a simple, but fundamental equation... ACQUISITION
  9. 9. 8 …but the equation can get mighty complex $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 30d LTV (a) 90d LTV (a) 1yr LTV (a) 1yr LTV (e) Actual Predicted Predictive LTV ModelingMulti-Channel Optimization Search 22% Display / Ad Networks 38% Branding 1% Facebook 4% PR 5% TV 30% ACQUISITION
  10. 10. 9 Retention rates can tell you a lot… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 29.09. 02.10. 05.10. 08.10. 11.10. 14.10. 17.10. 20.10. 23.10. 26.10. 30.10. 02.11. 05.11. 08.11. 11.11. 14.11. 17.11. 20.11. 23.11. 26.11. 29.11. 02.12. 05.12. 08.12. 11.12. 14.12. RR 3 days organic RR 3 days paid Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate (RR) RETENTION
  11. 11. 10 …if you know how to read them 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 29.09. 02.10. 05.10. 08.10. 11.10. 14.10. 17.10. 20.10. 23.10. 26.10. 30.10. 02.11. 05.11. 08.11. 11.11. 14.11. 17.11. 20.11. 23.11. 26.11. 29.11. 02.12. 05.12. 08.12. 11.12. 14.12. RR 3 days organic RR 3 days paid Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate (RR) RETENTION Technical issue with a patch Secondary accounts of existing users
  12. 12. 11 However, sometimes, the answers are less than obvious 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 6.1.2012 6.3.2012 6.5.2012 6.7.2012 6.9.2012 6.11.2012 6.13.2012 6.15.2012 6.17.2012 6.19.2012 6.21.2012 6.23.2012 6.25.2012 6.27.2012 6.29.2012 7.1.2012 7.3.2012 7.5.2012 7.7.2012 7.9.2012 7.11.2012 7.13.2012 7.15.2012 Germany UK Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate RETENTION
  13. 13. 12 Especially, when soccer is involved 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 6.1.2012 6.3.2012 6.5.2012 6.7.2012 6.9.2012 6.11.2012 6.13.2012 6.15.2012 6.17.2012 6.19.2012 6.21.2012 6.23.2012 6.25.2012 6.27.2012 6.29.2012 7.1.2012 7.3.2012 7.5.2012 7.7.2012 7.9.2012 7.11.2012 7.13.2012 7.15.2012 Germany UK Euro Cup! Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate RETENTION
  14. 14. 13 Good sales strategy is fueled by analytics Monthly Product Sales PlanContinuous KPI Analysis 1 [ 0- 5 ) 2 [ 5- 50) 3 [ 50-100) 4 [100-200) 5 [200-400) 6 [400+) 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 0 None 1 [ 0-5 ) 2 [ 5-50) 3 [50-100) 4 [100-200) 5 [200-400) 6 [400+) 1 [ 0- 5 ) 2 [ 5- 50) 3 [ 50-100) 4 [100-200) 5 [200-400) 6 [400+) Item Saturation TS Redemption CCU Spender Buckets Retention MONETIZATION
  15. 15. 14 Season #1  Price: $12 per spin  No. of Spins: 16  No. of Jackpots: 1,500 Season #2  Price: $25 per spin  No. of Spins: 14  Number of Jackpots 1000  Optimized composition of weapons Season #3  Price: $20 per spin  No. of Spins: 20  Number of Jackpots 500+500  Optimized weapons and Jackpot Shooter Game Case, Revenue 2013 Jun-Dec Event Optimization Event Season #1 Event Season #2 Event Season #3 Execute, analyze, optimize for best results Jun Jul NovOctSep DecAug MONETIZATION
  16. 16. 15 Beware… It’s a trap! (at least sometimes)  Data consistency can be a b*tch  Correlation ≠ Causation  What get’s measured can be improved, but what about intangibles?  You can plan a pretty picnic, but you can’t predict the weather! PITFALLS
  17. 17. Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value 08.04.2014, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens

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