Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011


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Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011

  1. 1. The Interdependence BetweenUrban and Rural Food Security in Asia Professor Paul PS Teng Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU, Dr. Margarita Escaler Research Fellow National Institute of Education, and Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony RSIS, NTU, Singapore
  2. 2. Outline of Presentation• Food security landscape in Asia• Importance of urban food security• Multi-dimensional nature of food security• Urban-rural linkages and interdependence• Policies & action interventions• Case study: Singapore
  3. 3. Food Security Landscape in Asia Asia: A contrasting scorecard• 60% of world’s population• Six of the top ten most populous countries• Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7” • 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion• 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)• Half of world’s urban population• More than half of world’s slum population• Eleven megacities• Large agricultural exporter and importer• 60% of world’s under-nourished
  4. 4. Food Balances in Asia Crop Item 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Million MTWHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648 Asia Imports 35 31 34 35 33 (% of Global Exports) (30) (27) (24) (26) (27)RICE Global Production 421 434 448 440 452(milled) Asia Imports 10 8.5 6.9 8.6 8.7 (% of Global Exports) (31) (29 (24) (28) (29)CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814 Asia Imports 34 35 34 37 36 (% of Global Exports) (37) (36) (40) (39) (39)SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258 Asia Imports 39 48 51 61 68 (% of Global Exports) (56) (61) (66) (65) (69) Source: USDA FAS
  5. 5. Food Security Landscape in Asia Asia by 2050 Population Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total 2010 2010 2010 2050 2050 2050 ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3Three key drivers• ~20% increase in total population• ~89% increase in urban population• 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)
  6. 6. Food Demand Changes in Asia• Reduced per capita consumption of rice• Increased consumption per capita of wheat and wheat-based products• Increased diversity in the food groups consumed• Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets• Increased consumption of temperate zone products• Rising popularity of convenience food and beverages• Westernization of dietsSource: Pingali, FAO 2004
  7. 7. Food Demand Changes in Asia (cont’d)• Meat consumption 100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yr Today, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr) China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr• Fish consumption 1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yr China accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)• Vegetable consumption - 1970s – 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 – >100 kg/person/yr - China: 1970 – 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 270.6 kg/person/yr
  8. 8. Urbanization of Asia At present, 50% of the world’s Asian Urbanization 2010 2050 population lives in cities – AsiaTotal Urban Population 3,486 6,285 accounts for half the share(millions) By 2050, 70% will be urban East Asia 785 1,189 (mostly in developing West Asia 155 296 countries) with Asia seeing an increase of ~1.7 Billion Southeast Asia 247 501 South Central Asia 571 1,396 Shift in the locus of poverty toUrbanization (%) cities East Asia 50 79 Increase in slum dwellers to West Asia 67 75 828 M in 2010 from 777 M in Southeast Asia 42 66 2000; Asia accounts for more than half the world’s total slum South Central Asia 32 56 populationASIA 1,758 3,382Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision
  9. 9. Importance of Urban Food Security “A hungry person with low blood sugar is a very angry person – virtually ungovernable” Ruth Oniang’o
  10. 10. Why is food a security issue? Globalisation Food Shortages Deterioration of Health Deterioration of Nutrition Food Price Increases Loss of Life Food Conflict Insecurity* Conflict Food Hoarding Economic Instability Political InstabilityClimate Change Food Contamination Social Instability * Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
  11. 11. Unique features of cities- Most food is purchased- Food basket is more varied and more diverse in origin- More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets- Supermarket chains and control of access- Availability of more processed foods- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects- Poor living conditions for urban poor- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain
  12. 12. Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security Aquaculture Animal Feed Capture Natural Fish Ecosystems Biofuels Poultry Mammals III. Economic Access Other Uses II. Physical AccessTrade Production Distribution Demand for Household Food Imports Food Security Stockpiles Processing/ I. Availability Distribution Losses IV. Utilization Primary Production Crops/AnimalsInputs Sunshine Population Increases Labor Land Water Diet Diversification Lifestyle Changes Urbanization Etc.
  13. 13. Issues of Concern Availability Physical Economic Utilization Access Access• Fragility of • Poor infrastructure • Social • Health and agro-systems • Conflict programs, nutrition• Climate change • Market safety nets • Fortification• Competition for imperfections • Employment programs land • Waste • Income • Education• Changing • Etc. • Macroeconomic • Etc. demographics policies• Waste • Entrepreneurship• Int’l trade • Etc. policies• Biofuel policies• Subsidies• Etc.
  14. 14. Urban-Rural Inter-dependence URBAN RURAL- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decrease rural poverty & increase agricultural innovation- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases dependence on subsistence production for food security- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri- urban agriculture
  15. 15. Threats to Urban Food Security Natural calamities and pest outbreaks Macro-economic policy changes Unseasonal weather patterns Rising energy prices Competition from energy sector Temporary illness/ unemploymentURBAN RURAL Poverty Underinvestment in agriculture Competition for land Changing demographics HIV Climate Change Fragility of agro-ecosystems Agricultural policy Changes
  16. 16. Feeding cities requires rural surplus production RURAL Food Production Role of URBAN and consumption public sector At sourcePERIURBAN Food Production and consumption Role of RURAL private sector Export ofPERIURBAN surplus URBAN
  17. 17. Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland” and in the global food supply chain?• Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds, fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training; improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.• Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve seed• Reducing waste• Changing diets• Expanding aquaculture CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an environmentally sustainable manner
  18. 18. Policy & Action Interventions - Examples Physical Economic Availability Utilization Access Access• Increase • Improve • Social • Biofortification, agricultural transport and programs, dietary supple- productivity infrastructure safety nets ments, education• Reduce waste • Link farmers to • Increase • Improve health markets entrepreneurial care• Encourage skills of farmers sustainable • Reduce waste • Monitor nutritional int’l trade • Non-farm security progress employment• Review • Improve infra- agricultural/ structure/hygiene biofuel policies INVESTMENTS
  19. 19. Interconnected Policy Making Agriculture Water Supply Health & NutritionTrade Energy Finance Land useEducation FOOD SECURITY Environment Social development Economic developmentNational security Migration Labour & Employment Political stability Public works
  20. 20. Food Security: geographic connectivity Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels -- Distribution ASEAN ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE & AMERICAS Global Food Supply Chain
  21. 21. Country Major Ag Commodities Produced World RankingBrunei rice, vegetables, fruits; chickens, water buffaloBurma rice, pulses, beans, sesame, groundnuts, sugarcane; 2- pigeon pea, cowpeas; 3- sesameCambodia rice, rubber, corn, vegetables, cashewsIndonesia rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa, 1- palm oil, cloves, cinnamon, coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs coconuts; 2 – rubber, pepper; 3 – rice, coffee, cocoaLaos sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffeeMalaysia rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice, coconuts, timber, 2 – palm oil; 3 - rubber pepperPhilippines sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassavas, 2 – coconuts, pineapple pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggsSingapore orchids, vegetables; poultry, eggs; fish, ornamental fishThailand rice, cassava (tapioca), rubber, corn, sugarcane, 1 – rice & shrimp exporter; 1 – coconuts, soybeans rubber, pineapple; 2- eggsVietnam paddy rice, coffee, rubber, cotton, tea, pepper, 1- cashew pepper; soybeans, cashews, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas; 2 - coffee; 2 –
  22. 22. Why should Singapore be concerned? ASEAN ASIA-PACIFIC Singapore’s food sources EUROPE & AMERICAS• Net food importing country with limited land resources and largely urban environment• Imports over 90% of its food• Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish, 7% leafy vegetables consumed
  23. 23. Enhancing local food supply resilience• Increase self production of selected items• Diversify food sources• Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart partnerships• Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA) – Agroparks; Aquazones – Vertical farming – Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc• Stockpiles• Reduce waste• Etc. “National Food Security depends on Regional and Global Food Security”
  24. 24. Conclusions• Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat of hunger & instability could increase• Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct attention• Food security is multi-dimensional• There is no quick fix• More interconnected policy making is critical• More holistic approach is required• For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral, cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban food security