On October 23rd, 2014, we updated our
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Discussion Guide • Food 2040—Hypothesis, ObjecHve, Outcomes • Technology Convergence—Consumer of the Future • Vision of Future State Requirements • The Research • Moving Ahead/ Wrap-‐Up
Hypothesis Global wealth creaHon will drive the emergence of aﬄuent consumers who will demand func%onal foods that align with their health and wellness lifestyle strategies.
ObjecHve Food 2040 will provide decision-‐makers a catalyst to deﬁne a shared understanding of the inﬁnite opportuni%es that will arise in the food system due to the convergence of mulHple interacHng factors.
Outcomes Food 2040 stakeholders will put research results to work in framing and acHvaHng acHon plans that incorporate this new vision and will begin to deﬁne how they will beneﬁt from the next quantum leap in food.
Who will beneﬁt from the next quantum leap in food? • Who will meet the needs of this future consumer and proﬁt from new opportuniHes? • How will our food producHon system evolve to meet these needs? • How should our global regulatory policy systems transform to meet these needs?
Technology Convergence— Consumer of the Future
Technology Convergence— Consumer of the Future Next GeneraHon Cultured Foods Biotechnology Consumer Driven Nanotechnology Nutrigenomics
Vision of Future State Requirements Today Future Commodity-‐based system Identity-preserved system
Vision of Future State Requirements Today Future Few large commercial 600+ firms seeking to global registrants of register transgenic and biotech transgenic events novel technology events
Vision of Future State Requirements Today Future Compartmentalized Integrated medical, food and nutriHon and wellness genomics models that are model infinite and evolve exponentially
Vision of Future State Requirements Today Future AnHquated t ransportaHon A highly sophisticated modern systems transportation and infrastructure system
Vision of Future State Requirements Today Future Middle class development Middle class with means to be focused on caloric increasingly discerning about increase food choices
Vision of Future State Requirements The future is about the global caloric needs required to feed 9 billion people and planning for macro protein and energy demands The more compelling opportunity for food system stakeholders to expand margins may be by targeHng exciHng new consumer-‐driven idenHty-‐ preserved markets
Research Process and Methodology
Research Theme 1 Food and Technology—Biotech and Agricultural InnovaHon • Biotech acceleraHon • Cheap genomics • Specialty GM crops • Biosensors • High-‐intensity agriculture • AutomaHc agriculture • Biopharming
Research Theme 2 Consumer Trends—Upper and Middle Class Asia • Middle class growth • UrbanizaHon • Gray Asia • Changing diets • Diseases of aﬄuence
Research Theme 3 CompeHHve and Policy/Regulatory Landscape—Evolving Issues and Standards • Chinese wages rising • Regulatory capacity • China ascending the food value chain • CounterfeiHng, adulteraHon, and intellectual property • Asian credit crises • Rising transparency • Asian freight infrastructure
Research Theme 4 Agriculture Food DistribuHon and Packaging—TransportaHon and Infrastructure • Infrastructure build-‐out • Rising volumes • Energy costs • IdenHfy preservaHon and traceability • Shiaing product mixes • Smart packaging
Research Theme 5 Environment and Resources— Impacts of Global Growth • Water scarcity • Soil depleHon • Scarce ferHlizer • China’s shrinking farmland • Global ﬁshery depleHon • Food insecurity