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ASEAN Economic Community 2015

 ASEAN Strategic Plan of Action
 – Direction and Action needed –




                          SUPHAT SAQUANDEEKUL
                 Executive Director, Bureau of ASEAN Affairs
                     Department of Trade Negotiations
                           Ministry of Commerce
CONTENT
1.   ASEAN -- background & key indicators --
2.   Towards ASEAN Economic Community 2015
3.   What will be the changes in AECs?
4.   ASEAN with ASEAN Plus
5.   What are benefits / impacts from AEC
6.   Are you ready for AEC 2015?
7.   Opportunities & Challenges for ASEAN Food
     Industry in AEC
ASEAN
– background & key indicators –
ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations)
Established in 1967
                                 CLMV




  CAMBODIA
  CAMBODIA




             ASEAN -6
Populations                   GDP                       GDP per                    Export                      FDI
  Country                     Country                     Country                   Country                     Country
                 (million)                  (million$)                 Capita ($)                 (million$)                 (million$)


1.Indonesia           231,4 1.Indonesia        546,527 1. Singapore        36,631 1.Singapore        269,832 1.Singapore        16,809

2.Philippines          92,2 2.Thailand         264,230 2. Brunei           26,486 2. Malaysia        156,891 2. Vietnam          7,600

3.Vietnam              86.0 3.Malaysia         191,618 3. Malaysia          6,822 3. Thailand        152,497 3. Thailand         4,976

4.Thailand             66.9 4.Singapore        177,569 4. Thailand          3,951 4. Indonesia       116,510 4. Indonesia        4,877

5.Myanmar              59.5 5.Philippines      161,357 5. Indonesia         2,364 5. Vietnam          56,691 5.Philippines       1,948

6.Malaysia             28.3 6.Vietnam           96,317 6.Philippines        1,750 6 Philippines       38,335 6. Malaysia         1,381

7.Cambodia             14.9 7.Myanmar           24.024 7. Vietnam           1,120 7. Brunei            7,169 7. Myanmar            579

8.Singapore             6.1 8.Brunei            14,147 8. Lao PDR             910 8. Myanmar           6,341 8. Cambodia           530

9.Lao PDR               5.0 9.Cambodia          10,368 9. Cambodia            693 9. Cambodia          4,986 9. Brunei             370

10.Brunei               0.4 10.Lao PDR           5,742 10.Myanmar             419 10. Lao PDR          1,237 10. Lao PDR           319

    GDP: Gross Domestic Productions / FDI : Foreign Direct Investment
                                                                                                                                     5
    Source: ASEAN Secretariat , Statistics of Year 2009
Towards AEC 2015
ASEAN COMMUNITY
     One Vision
     One Identity
     One Community
                         AC : 2015


  ASEAN
 Security                       ASEAN
Community                     Economic
  (ASC)                       Community
                                (AEC)
                ASEAN
            Social-Cultural                AEC BLUEPRINT
             Community                    & Strategic Schedule
               (ASCC)
What will be the changes in AEC ?
(Common Effective Preferential Tariff)
AEC GOALS
                 ASEAN Economic Community : AEC

1. Single Market & Production Base    2. Competitive Economic Region

    Free flow of goods                                    e-ASEAN
   Free flow of services                                  Taxation
                                                     Competition Policy
  Free flow of investment
                                                     Intellectual Property
 Free flow of skilled labor
                                   Year              Consumer Protection
   Freer flow of capitals
                                   2015          Infrastructure Development

3. Equitable Economic Development    4. Integration into Global Economy

    Narrowing development gap                Coherent approach toward
                                             external economic relations
     between ASEAN-6 & CLMV
                                          Enhanced Participation in global
                                                   supply network
  Supporting development of SMEs
                                           FTA with Non-ASEAN Countries
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods




    1 January 2010      ASEAN-6 reduced Import duty to 0%

    1 January 2015      CLMV will reduce Import duty to 0%


Except for
Products in Sensitive List : import duties must be ≤ 5%
Products in Highly Sensitive List : more flexible tariff rates but must be
agreed upon by other member states.
                         Products :    Rice & Sugar
                         Countries :   Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods
Products in Sensitive List : import duties must be ≤ 5%
                                          ASEAN–6 by 1 January 2010
                                                                                     Tariff rate
                                            CLMV by 1 January 2015                  To be reduced to

Thailand                   coffee, potato, copra, cut flowers                            5%
 Brunei                                 coffee, tea                                      5%
Malaysia      some animals, swine, poultry, eggs, some plants and fruits, tobacco        5%
Philippines        some animals, swine, poultry, tapioca, corn                           5%
 Singapore and Indonesia                             none                                 --

Cambodia             poultry, fish, some vegetables and fruits                           5%
              some animals, meat of bovine, swine, poultry, some vegetables and
   Lao                               fruits, rice, tobacco
                                                                                         5%
Myanmar                       bean, coffee, sugar, silk, cotton                          5%
Vietnam        some animals, poultry, eggs, some plants, processed meat, sugar           5%
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods


Products in Highly Sensitive List
: more flexible tariff rates but must be agreed upon by other member
states.

                          Products :    Rice & Sugar
                          Countries :   Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines


 Malaysia      Rice at 20% in 2010

Indonesia      Rice at 25% in 2010        Sugar: from 40% to 5-10% in 2010

Philippines    Sugar: 38% till 2011, from 2012 be reduced gradually to 5% in 2015

                      Rice: 40% till 2014, then be reduced to 35% in 2015
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Services




ICT, Health, Tourism,
Air Transport
Logistics sector        51%
other sectors           51%
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Investment


                                                  Investment :
                                                1. Agriculture
                                                2. Fisheries
                                                3. Forestry
                                                4. Mining
                                                5. Manufacturing


Extend non-discriminatory treatment to investors in ASEAN
Revise AIA    ACIA (ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement )
ACIA covers liberalization, protection, facilitation, and promotion
AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Skilled Labor




          MRAs enables the qualifications of services suppliers
          recognised by one ASEAN country to be mutually recognised
          by another ASEAN member
ASEAN and ASEAN Plus
Enhancing ASEAN External Economic Relations

      Existing FTA                    Future possible FTA      Others Dialogue Partners

                                                                  ASEAN-Canada
                      ASEAN-Russia

      ASEAN-EU                                                                          ASEAN-US
                                      ASEAN-China FTA

                                          ASEAN-Korea FTA

  ASEAN-GCC                                 ASEAN-Japan
                                            CEP




                                 ASEAN-
                                  India
                                   FTA                                                      ASEAN-
                                                                                           MERCOSUR
                                                 ASEAN-
                                              Australia- New
                                               Zealand FTA
 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,                                     Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,
 Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates                                Uruguay, Venezuela
FTA between ASEAN and Dialogue Partners-at present

                                                                                           ASEAN Plus 6
                                                                                                    India
                                   AC
                   China                FTA                                   AIFTA
Goods : Since July 2005 ~
Services : Since 2007 ~
Investment : Signed on 13 Aug 09
                                                       AEC                        Goods : Signed on 13 Aug 09,
                                                                                          Effective on 1 Jan 10
                                                                                  Services/Investment : under negotiations
                                              P                       AA
                                   A JCE                                   NZ
                                                                              F   TA
                Japan
  Goods / Services / Investment : Signed in 2008
                                                     AKFTA
  For Thailand effective on 2 June 09                                          Australia & New Zealand
                                                                               Goods / Services / Investment:
              ASEAN Plus3                                                      Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 Jan 10
                                                        Korea
                          Goods / Services : ASEAN except Thailand since 2007
                          For Thailand Services : Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 June 09
                          / Goods effective on 1 Oct 09
                          Investment all ASEAN :Signed on 2 June 09 Effective on 31 Oct. 09
Enhancing ASEAN FTA

   CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia) (ASEAN +6)

      EAFTA (East Asia FTA)
      (ASEAN +3)

        China      Japan
                                  AEC            Australia      New Zealand


                     Korea
                                                             India


ASEAN 10 : Population: 590 ml. ( 9% of global population)
           GDP :1,499 billion US$ ( 2% of global GDP)
EAFTA (ASEAN +3) : Population: 2,068 ml. ( 31% of global population)
                   GDP :9,901 billion US$ ( 18% of global GDP)
CEPEA (ASEAN +6) : Population: 3,268 ml. ( 50% of global population)
                   GDP : 12,250 billion US$ ( 22% of global GDP)
What are benefits / impacts
from AEC?
Who will benefit from AEC ?
 Stakeholders                           Impacts
                      Larger economies of scale   reduce production
                      costs    enhance competitiveness
 Manufacturer         More choice of inputs/materials from other
                      ASEAN at lower prices
                      Greater demand for exports
   Exporter           Strengthen business networks & partnerships
                      across ASEAN
                      Expanded markets for services
Service Provider      Enhance competitiveness
                      More choice of services experts
                      Expanded markets for agricultural products both
    Farmer            within and outside ASEAN
                      Increase of income

                   Greater choices and varieties of goods and services
   Consumer         through increase in intra-regional trade
Who will be affected by AEC?

 Stakeholders                         Impacts
                   Uncompetitive manufacturers with high cost of
 Manufacturer      production may be defeated by other
                   competitors in ASEAN.
                      More intense competition
                      High possibility of going out of market unless
   Exporter           having measures for improving efficiency,
                      quality, and innovation.
                      More competitors in the market
Service Provider      Valuable human resources may be taken by
                      other ASEAN.

                      Will be competed with better quality goods at
    Farmer            competitive prices
                      Income might decrease
                   Exposed to harm from low quality products
   Consumer         unless measures for consumer protection are
                    in place.
Are you ready for AEC 2015?
How to Draw Your Strengths from AEC ?


                           Raw material / inputs from ASEAN at lower
   Cut down costs          prices
                           Improve efficiency & management

  Know your markets        Study consumers’ behavior in AEC

                           Increase your strength / reduce weakness
     Know yourself
                           Try to turn “rivals” into “partners”
      & your rivals
                           Become a part of ASEAN food supply chain

      Differentiate      Creativity and Sustainability
your products & services Emphasis on quality, design, standards etc


 Thinking out of a box     Do not overlook “ Unseen Opportunities”
How to Draw Your Strengths from AEC ?


                           Search for suitable markets for your
                           products & services
   Expand Business         Whether joint venture or wholly owned
      in ASEAN             enterprise ?
                           Whether local employees or dispatch
                           ones ?

Ensure the readiness of    Learn culture, attitude, social value , ways
Human Resources            of thinking etc of other ASEAN people


Maintain your “precious”
                           “How to retain them with us?”
personals
Opportunities & Challenges
For Food Industry in AEC
Opportunities for Food Industry in AEC
   Larger market     increased demand for food
   Greater access to the ASEAN (& Asian) market
   Economy of scale     reduce cost of productions    enhanced
   competitiveness
   More choices to import raw materials/semi-final products
   from other ASEAN at lower prices
   Creation of ASEAN production networks through partnerships
   with ASEAN food producers

   Complete or partly relocation of manufacturing base to CLMV


   Solving professional/skilled-labor shortage problem in the
   region
Challenges for Food Industry in AEC

 Increased competition in trade, investment and resources

 Risk to exposure to low-quality products & services from
 other ASEAN & ASEAN Plus countries

 Encouragement on improvement of products and services

 R&D and Innovation

 Encouragement of administrative reforms in pace with
 rapidly changing environment in ASEAN


 Higher competition in professional/skilled labor market
Thank You



            One Vision
            One Identity
            One Community

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ASEAN Strategic Plan & Action

  • 1. ASEAN Economic Community 2015 ASEAN Strategic Plan of Action – Direction and Action needed – SUPHAT SAQUANDEEKUL Executive Director, Bureau of ASEAN Affairs Department of Trade Negotiations Ministry of Commerce
  • 2. CONTENT 1. ASEAN -- background & key indicators -- 2. Towards ASEAN Economic Community 2015 3. What will be the changes in AECs? 4. ASEAN with ASEAN Plus 5. What are benefits / impacts from AEC 6. Are you ready for AEC 2015? 7. Opportunities & Challenges for ASEAN Food Industry in AEC
  • 3. ASEAN – background & key indicators –
  • 4. ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) Established in 1967 CLMV CAMBODIA CAMBODIA ASEAN -6
  • 5. Populations GDP GDP per Export FDI Country Country Country Country Country (million) (million$) Capita ($) (million$) (million$) 1.Indonesia 231,4 1.Indonesia 546,527 1. Singapore 36,631 1.Singapore 269,832 1.Singapore 16,809 2.Philippines 92,2 2.Thailand 264,230 2. Brunei 26,486 2. Malaysia 156,891 2. Vietnam 7,600 3.Vietnam 86.0 3.Malaysia 191,618 3. Malaysia 6,822 3. Thailand 152,497 3. Thailand 4,976 4.Thailand 66.9 4.Singapore 177,569 4. Thailand 3,951 4. Indonesia 116,510 4. Indonesia 4,877 5.Myanmar 59.5 5.Philippines 161,357 5. Indonesia 2,364 5. Vietnam 56,691 5.Philippines 1,948 6.Malaysia 28.3 6.Vietnam 96,317 6.Philippines 1,750 6 Philippines 38,335 6. Malaysia 1,381 7.Cambodia 14.9 7.Myanmar 24.024 7. Vietnam 1,120 7. Brunei 7,169 7. Myanmar 579 8.Singapore 6.1 8.Brunei 14,147 8. Lao PDR 910 8. Myanmar 6,341 8. Cambodia 530 9.Lao PDR 5.0 9.Cambodia 10,368 9. Cambodia 693 9. Cambodia 4,986 9. Brunei 370 10.Brunei 0.4 10.Lao PDR 5,742 10.Myanmar 419 10. Lao PDR 1,237 10. Lao PDR 319 GDP: Gross Domestic Productions / FDI : Foreign Direct Investment 5 Source: ASEAN Secretariat , Statistics of Year 2009
  • 7. ASEAN COMMUNITY One Vision One Identity One Community AC : 2015 ASEAN Security ASEAN Community Economic (ASC) Community (AEC) ASEAN Social-Cultural AEC BLUEPRINT Community & Strategic Schedule (ASCC)
  • 8. What will be the changes in AEC ?
  • 10. AEC GOALS ASEAN Economic Community : AEC 1. Single Market & Production Base 2. Competitive Economic Region Free flow of goods e-ASEAN Free flow of services Taxation Competition Policy Free flow of investment Intellectual Property Free flow of skilled labor Year Consumer Protection Freer flow of capitals 2015 Infrastructure Development 3. Equitable Economic Development 4. Integration into Global Economy Narrowing development gap Coherent approach toward external economic relations between ASEAN-6 & CLMV Enhanced Participation in global supply network Supporting development of SMEs FTA with Non-ASEAN Countries
  • 11. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods 1 January 2010 ASEAN-6 reduced Import duty to 0% 1 January 2015 CLMV will reduce Import duty to 0% Except for Products in Sensitive List : import duties must be ≤ 5% Products in Highly Sensitive List : more flexible tariff rates but must be agreed upon by other member states. Products : Rice & Sugar Countries : Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines
  • 12. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods Products in Sensitive List : import duties must be ≤ 5% ASEAN–6 by 1 January 2010 Tariff rate CLMV by 1 January 2015 To be reduced to Thailand coffee, potato, copra, cut flowers 5% Brunei coffee, tea 5% Malaysia some animals, swine, poultry, eggs, some plants and fruits, tobacco 5% Philippines some animals, swine, poultry, tapioca, corn 5% Singapore and Indonesia none -- Cambodia poultry, fish, some vegetables and fruits 5% some animals, meat of bovine, swine, poultry, some vegetables and Lao fruits, rice, tobacco 5% Myanmar bean, coffee, sugar, silk, cotton 5% Vietnam some animals, poultry, eggs, some plants, processed meat, sugar 5%
  • 13. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Goods Products in Highly Sensitive List : more flexible tariff rates but must be agreed upon by other member states. Products : Rice & Sugar Countries : Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines Malaysia Rice at 20% in 2010 Indonesia Rice at 25% in 2010 Sugar: from 40% to 5-10% in 2010 Philippines Sugar: 38% till 2011, from 2012 be reduced gradually to 5% in 2015 Rice: 40% till 2014, then be reduced to 35% in 2015
  • 14. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Services ICT, Health, Tourism, Air Transport Logistics sector 51% other sectors 51%
  • 15. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Investment Investment : 1. Agriculture 2. Fisheries 3. Forestry 4. Mining 5. Manufacturing Extend non-discriminatory treatment to investors in ASEAN Revise AIA ACIA (ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement ) ACIA covers liberalization, protection, facilitation, and promotion
  • 16. AEC Blueprint : Free Flow of Skilled Labor MRAs enables the qualifications of services suppliers recognised by one ASEAN country to be mutually recognised by another ASEAN member
  • 18. Enhancing ASEAN External Economic Relations Existing FTA Future possible FTA Others Dialogue Partners ASEAN-Canada ASEAN-Russia ASEAN-EU ASEAN-US ASEAN-China FTA ASEAN-Korea FTA ASEAN-GCC ASEAN-Japan CEP ASEAN- India FTA ASEAN- MERCOSUR ASEAN- Australia- New Zealand FTA Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Uruguay, Venezuela
  • 19. FTA between ASEAN and Dialogue Partners-at present ASEAN Plus 6 India AC China FTA AIFTA Goods : Since July 2005 ~ Services : Since 2007 ~ Investment : Signed on 13 Aug 09 AEC Goods : Signed on 13 Aug 09, Effective on 1 Jan 10 Services/Investment : under negotiations P AA A JCE NZ F TA Japan Goods / Services / Investment : Signed in 2008 AKFTA For Thailand effective on 2 June 09 Australia & New Zealand Goods / Services / Investment: ASEAN Plus3 Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 Jan 10 Korea Goods / Services : ASEAN except Thailand since 2007 For Thailand Services : Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 June 09 / Goods effective on 1 Oct 09 Investment all ASEAN :Signed on 2 June 09 Effective on 31 Oct. 09
  • 20. Enhancing ASEAN FTA CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia) (ASEAN +6) EAFTA (East Asia FTA) (ASEAN +3) China Japan AEC Australia New Zealand Korea India ASEAN 10 : Population: 590 ml. ( 9% of global population) GDP :1,499 billion US$ ( 2% of global GDP) EAFTA (ASEAN +3) : Population: 2,068 ml. ( 31% of global population) GDP :9,901 billion US$ ( 18% of global GDP) CEPEA (ASEAN +6) : Population: 3,268 ml. ( 50% of global population) GDP : 12,250 billion US$ ( 22% of global GDP)
  • 21. What are benefits / impacts from AEC?
  • 22. Who will benefit from AEC ? Stakeholders Impacts Larger economies of scale reduce production costs enhance competitiveness Manufacturer More choice of inputs/materials from other ASEAN at lower prices Greater demand for exports Exporter Strengthen business networks & partnerships across ASEAN Expanded markets for services Service Provider Enhance competitiveness More choice of services experts Expanded markets for agricultural products both Farmer within and outside ASEAN Increase of income Greater choices and varieties of goods and services Consumer through increase in intra-regional trade
  • 23. Who will be affected by AEC? Stakeholders Impacts Uncompetitive manufacturers with high cost of Manufacturer production may be defeated by other competitors in ASEAN. More intense competition High possibility of going out of market unless Exporter having measures for improving efficiency, quality, and innovation. More competitors in the market Service Provider Valuable human resources may be taken by other ASEAN. Will be competed with better quality goods at Farmer competitive prices Income might decrease Exposed to harm from low quality products Consumer unless measures for consumer protection are in place.
  • 24. Are you ready for AEC 2015?
  • 25. How to Draw Your Strengths from AEC ? Raw material / inputs from ASEAN at lower Cut down costs prices Improve efficiency & management Know your markets Study consumers’ behavior in AEC Increase your strength / reduce weakness Know yourself Try to turn “rivals” into “partners” & your rivals Become a part of ASEAN food supply chain Differentiate Creativity and Sustainability your products & services Emphasis on quality, design, standards etc Thinking out of a box Do not overlook “ Unseen Opportunities”
  • 26. How to Draw Your Strengths from AEC ? Search for suitable markets for your products & services Expand Business Whether joint venture or wholly owned in ASEAN enterprise ? Whether local employees or dispatch ones ? Ensure the readiness of Learn culture, attitude, social value , ways Human Resources of thinking etc of other ASEAN people Maintain your “precious” “How to retain them with us?” personals
  • 27. Opportunities & Challenges For Food Industry in AEC
  • 28. Opportunities for Food Industry in AEC Larger market increased demand for food Greater access to the ASEAN (& Asian) market Economy of scale reduce cost of productions enhanced competitiveness More choices to import raw materials/semi-final products from other ASEAN at lower prices Creation of ASEAN production networks through partnerships with ASEAN food producers Complete or partly relocation of manufacturing base to CLMV Solving professional/skilled-labor shortage problem in the region
  • 29. Challenges for Food Industry in AEC Increased competition in trade, investment and resources Risk to exposure to low-quality products & services from other ASEAN & ASEAN Plus countries Encouragement on improvement of products and services R&D and Innovation Encouragement of administrative reforms in pace with rapidly changing environment in ASEAN Higher competition in professional/skilled labor market
  • 30. Thank You One Vision One Identity One Community