Galloping or Hyper Inflation-more than 10 percent annually
On the basis of time-
Post war time
Cost-push-wage push, profit push, material push
Factors causing increase in demand
Increase in money supply
Increase in government expenditure
Increase in private expenditure
Increase in exports
Increase in population
Paying off debts
Factors causing decease in supply
Scarcity of factors of production
Trade union activities
4 .Natural calamities
5. Increase in exports
6. Law of diminishing returns
Effects of Price Rise
Effects on Production
Effects on Distribution
Control of Price Instability
Demand Pull Inflation The Monetarist Theory D D1 D2 Output Price Level P P1 P2 M S Keynesian Theory d d1 d2 d3 d4 s s P1 P2 P3 Output m m1 m3 m4
Cost Push Inflation D S S S1 P P1 E E1 M M1 Output Price Level
According to Keynes, inflationary gap exists when, at full employment income level, aggregate demand exceeds supply. This means that due to increase in investment and government expenditure, the money income increases, but production does not increase because of the limitations of productive capacity. As a result, an inflationary gap comes to exist, causing the prices to rise. The prices continue to rise so long as the inflationary gap exists. INFLATIONARY GAP
Y=C+I+G is the equilibrium line which shows the equality of total income and total expenditure. The initial equilibrium of the economy is at point Eo which represents full employment income OYo.
When expenditure increases from C+I+G to C’+I’+G’, the new equilibrium will be at E1, representing higher money income OY1. The available output is EoYo or OYo which is less than the money income E1Y1 or OY1 by the vertical distance E1G. This is Inflationary Gap.
C+I+G C’+I’+G’ Y=C+I+G E 0 E 1 G Y o Y 1 INCOME EXPENDITURE O
Inflationary and Deflationary Gaps
Inflationary gap occurs when AD
exceeds AS at full employment
level of output. In this case, money
rises to a higher equilibrium, but
real income being at full employment
output level remains unchanged. As a
result there is an upward rise in prices
because the consumers compete for
limited supply of output and bid prices
Deflationary gap prevails when AD is
less than AS at full employment level
of output. Income equilibrium occurs
while resources are unemployed.
EXPENDITURE (C+I+G) EXPENDITURE (C+I+G) Y f Y f Y O Y O O E B A B A E O AS or Y=C+I+G AD or C+I+G Inflationary gap Deflationary gap AS or Y=C+I+G AD or C+I+G Income (Y) Income (Y)
Less Investment Expenditure Less Aggregate Demand Causes of Deflation Less Consumption Expenditure Low MEC High Rate of Interest High Liquidity Preference Less Supply of Money
In 1958, A.W.Phillips presented an empirical theory of inflation commonly known as Phillips curve hypothesis. The Phillips curve expresses empirical wage-price-employment relationship. On the basis of the data of the UK for the period between 1861-1957, Phillips found that there existed a stable, inverse and non-linear relationship between the rate of change in money wage (W) and unemployment rate (U). When unemployment is low, wages will rise; when unemployment is high, wages will tend to fall but slowly because of the downward rigidity of wage rates.
Wage Inflation Rate Wage Inflation U 3 U 2 U 1 W 3 W 2 W 1 w w U U 0
Inflation and Unemployment using AS/AD Inflation Real National Income AD1 AS1 2% U = 4% Assume the economy has an inflation rate of 2% and a level of national income giving an unemployment rate of 4%. AD rises for some reason. AD2 U = 3% 3.75% The rise in AD leads to a fall in unemployment but inflationary pressures push inflation up to 3.75%. Producers try to expand output but at increased cost – employing more expensive capital, paying workers more to do work etc. Increased cost results in a shift in AS to the left – workers start to be laid off. AS2 4.0% The short run fall in unemployment is only temporary; as AS shifts, unemployment will start to rise again and the economy will end up in the long run in a position with unemployment at 4% but with higher inflation. Expansionary fiscal or monetary policy will only lead to reductions in unemployment in the short run. In the long run unemployment will return to its natural rate. Attempts to reduce unemployment below the natural rate will be inflationary.
The Philips Curve
The Phillips Curve
1958 – Professor A.W. Phillips
Expressed a statistical relationship between the rate of growth of money wages and unemployment from 1861 – 1957
Rate of growth of money wages linked to inflationary pressure
Led to a theory expressing a trade-off between inflation and unemployment
The Phillips Curve Wage growth % (Inflation) Unemployment (%) The Phillips Curve shows an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. It suggested that if governments wanted to reduce unemployment it had to accept higher inflation as a trade-off. Money illusion – wage rates rising but individuals not factoring in inflation on real wage rates. 1.5% 6% 4% 2.5% PC1
The Phillips Curve
1970s – Inflation and unemployment rising at the same time – stagflation
Phillips Curve redundant?
Or was it moving?
The Phillips Curve Wage growth % (Inflation) Unemployment (%) An inward shift of the Phillips Curve would result in lower unemployment levels associated with higher inflation. 1.5% 6% 4% PC1 3.0% PC2
The Phillips Curve Inflation Unemployment Long Run PC PC1 PC2 PC3 Assume the economy starts with an inflation rate of 1% but very high unemployment at 7%. Government takes measures to reduce unemployment by an expansionary fiscal policy that pushes AD to the right (see the AD/AS diagram on slide 15) 7% 2.0% 1.0% There is a short term fall in unemployment but at a cost of higher inflation. Individuals now base their wage negotiations on expectations of higher inflation in the next period. If higher wages are granted then firms costs rise – they start to shed labour and unemployment creeps back up to 7% again. 3.0% To counter the rise in unemployment, government once again injects resources into the economy – the result is a short-term fall in unemployment but higher inflation. This higher inflation fuels further expectation of higher inflation and so the process continues. The long run Phillips Curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. This is how economists have explained the movements in the Phillips Curve and it is termed the Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve.
The Phillips Curve
To reduce unemployment to below the natural rate would necessitate:
Influencing expectations – persuading individuals that inflation was going to fall
Boosting the supply side of the economy - increase capacity
Whenever unemployment is low, inflation tends to be high. Whenever unemployment is high, inflation tends to be low. This inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is called the Phillips curve.
The Phillips curve is a relative relationship. Unemployment is considered low or high relative to the so-called natural rate of unemployment. Inflation is considered low or high relative to the expected rate of inflation.
The definitions of the natural rate of unemployment and expected inflation are nearly circular. What is the natural rate? It is the rate of unemployment at which inflation is equal to expected inflation. What is expected inflation? It is the inflation rate that prevails when unemployment is equal to its natural rate.
The Lucas AS function
In the New Classical approach, a given SRAS curve applies only to unexpected shifts in AD. Suppose there is a shift in aggregate demand from AD 0 to AD 1 . If the shift is unexpected, the economy will move from the initial position at point A to point B, at the intersection of SRAS o and AD 1 . However, if the shift in AD is expected, agents will negotiate higher wages immediately on the basis of this expectation, and the SRAS curve will shift up to SRAS 1 . The price level will go straight from P 0 to P 1 and the economy will move from A to C, with no increase in GDP.
Policy ineffectiveness follows from the same
analysis. Any predictable change in monetary
and fiscal policy causing a change in AD from
Ado to AD 1 , will lead to a rise in prices from
Po to P 1 and will have no effect on real GDP.
An unexpected policy change of the same
magnitude however, would take the economy
from point A to B in the short run, and to C only
in the long run.
LRAS SRAS 1 SRAS 0 AD 1 AD 0 c B A Y* y1 P1 P0 Real GDP Price Level
Inflation in India
Inflation in an emerging economy
Weekly and monthly assessment of Inflation rate
IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT • Categories of Unemployment • The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories. • The long-run problem and the short-run problem: • The natural rate of unemployment • The cyclical rate of unemployment
Natural Rate of Unemployment
The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.
• It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.
• Cyclical unemployment refers to the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.
• It is associated with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.
Frictional unemployment refers to the unemployment that results from the time that it takes to match workers with jobs. In other words, it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that best suit their tastes and skills.
Structural unemployment is the unemployment that results because the number of jobs available in some labor markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one.
The World Bank classifies its anti unemployment and poverty activities into three groups:
a. Fostering opportunity – through well-functioning and internationally open markets, and investments in infrastructure and education.
b. Facilitating empowerment, which amounts to including people in the decision-making process. This requires government accountability, a strong media, local organizational capacity, and mechanisms for participation in making decisions.
c. Addressing income security, which tackles the problem of vulnerability.
Overview of Unemployment in India
Economic reforms may have given a boost to industrial productivity and brought in foreign investment in capital intensive areas. But the boom has not created jobs. This was not unexpected.
Five-Year Plan projects has always fallen short of target in the past, and few believe that the current Plan will be able to meet its target.
India's labour force is growing at a rate of 2.5 per cent annually, but employment is growing at only 2.3 per cent. Thus, the country is faced with the challenge of not only absorbing new entrants to the job market (estimated at seven million people every year), but also clearing the backlog.
Sixty per cent of India's workforce is self-employed, many of whom remain very poor. Nearly 30 per cent are casual workers (i.e. they work only when they are able to get jobs and remain unpaid for the rest of the days). Only about 10 per cent are regular employees, of which two-fifths are employed by the public sector.
More than 90 per cent of the labour force is employed in the "unorganised sector", i.e. sectors which don't provide with the social security and other benefits of employment in the "organised sector."
In the rural areas, agricultural workers form the bulk of the unorganised sector. In urban India, contract and sub-contract as well as migratory agricultural labourers make up most of the unorganised labour force.
Unorganised sector is made up of jobs in which the Minimum Wage Act is either not, or only marginally, implemented. The absence of unions in the unorganised sector does not provide any opportunity for collective bargaining.
Over 70 per cent of the labour force in all sector combined (organised and unorganised) is either illiterate or educated below the primary level.
Sector-wise absorption of labour
Agriculture 62 per cent
Manufacturing & construction 16 per cent
Services 10 per cent
Sundry / miscellaneous jobs 12 per cent
Table 1 : Age structure of population: 1997-2002
Age-group 1997 2002
0 – 14 37.23% 33.59%
15 - 59 56.07% 59.41%
60+ 6.70% 7.00%
Factors why unemployment is higher in India
The higher unemployment rate in India compared to West is due to small wrong ADMINISTRATIVE decisions that India's govts/citizens have taken in past years, or due to several right decisions they DID NOT take. The cumulative effect of these wrong administrative decisions is that we have chronically high unemployment, less growth etc.
Following are the main reasons why India has been having higher unemployment than West : The administration/courts in West create less obstacles to starting, running and closing a business/industry. Easy exit policies are necessary, as unless a business is closed, the resources like land, capital, machineries etc it owns cannot be sold or transferred to another business and hence starting another business will become expensive and difficult. In India, due to lack of Jury System against officers, the officers find it very easy to create obstacles in the path of small/medium industrialists etc. This has hampered the progress.
Lawlessness/corruption : In a large part of India, there is utter lawlessness and high corruption. Due to lawlessness, perpetual violence threat of extortion and kidnapping and rampant corruption in officers/judges, the small/middle level industrialists keep away. As a result, even large industrialists, who need a number of small/large industrialists to provide goods/services etc, do not go there. Hence high unemployment in those areas.
High stamp duty : The transfer duty of 12% on land/building sale drastically reduces liquidity in land/building market. The liquidity of land/building market is crucial to starting new industries and closing existing loss-making industries. The illiquidity in land/business market stifles industry and thus employment.
Lack of wealth tax : Due to lack of wealth tax, there is NO cost in hoarding land/building in India. As a result, lot of wealthy individuals merely keep hoarding land and buildings in large amount. This creates an artificial scarcity of land/building in crowded cities. This stifles industries and increases unemployment. While most Western countries have wealth tax due to which wealth hoarding is less.
Regressive taxes : The regressive taxes, like taxes on movie tickets, tobacco, sugar, cloth, liquor, edible oil, crude oil etc depletes the disposable incomes of poor. As a result, the poor in India have less money to spend, and so they buy fewer goods. This will decrease the sales, and thus reduce employment. The currency system in India enables RBI-directors etc to deflate the currency i.e. rupee at the rate of 10% to 14% a year. This raises the cost of production, and puts an undue pressure on businesses and industrialists. As a result, unemployment increases. The currency system in India enables RBI-directors etc to deflate the currency i.e. rupee at the rate of 10% to 14% a year. This raises the cost of production, and puts an undue pressure on businesses and industrialists. As a result, unemployment increases.
High cost of telecommunications: Due to defunctness in telecom regulation. the cost of phone calls (as a % of per capita GDP) is much higher in India. A low cost, and less sophisticated, telephony is possible in India, but due to defunct TRAI, does NOT materialize. And so the service providers have to depend to imported machineries, which increases the cost (as % of per-capita income). So cost of telephony remains higher in India compared to West. This reduces employment opportunities. Defunct rental laws : Since rent laws are defunct, a large number of building owners hesitate in renting the apartments. This increases the cost of starting a new business. Hence lesser growth in employment opportunities. High cost and poor quality of electricity : Given the voltage fluctuations, load shedding etc India has poor quality of electricity compared to West. And this is due to administrative problems, NOT lack of natural resources. The cost of fuel is same all across the world, but due to low competitiveness in electricity generation, transmission etc, the staff of the generation/transmission companies etc manage to get away with much higher salaries compared to per-capita income of an average Indian. This results into higher cost of electricity power. This in turn reduces industrial growth and increases unemployment.
POLICIES TO REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT
Reducing Cyclical Unemployment 1. Most economists believe that an increase in cyclical unemployment is caused by a decrease in aggregate demand. 2. If wages and other input prices are "sticky," the economy can experience relatively long periods of cyclical unemployment and policies will be needed to reduce the unemployment. 3. Stabilization policies, government policies intended to maintain full employment and a reasonably stable price level, can be used. a. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies can be used. 4. There is a tradeoff between reducing unemployment and increasing the price level.
If the economy is at full employment, expansionary policies will simply increase the price level and leave output unchanged. 5. Despite the use of stabilization policies, we still observe cyclical movements in the unemployment rate and price level.
These fluctuations occur because it is difficult to know how much to change variables such as government spending when using stabilization policy and because it is difficult to use stabilization policy in a timely manner.
B. Reducing Structural Unemployment
1. Policy suggestions to reduce structural unemployment include providing government training programs to the structurally unemployed, paying subsidies to firms that provide training to displaced workers, helping the structurally unemployed to relocate to areas where jobs exist, and inducing prospective workers to continue or resume their education.
C. Reducing Frictional Unemployment
1. Policy suggestions to reduce frictional unemployment include establishing a computerized national job bank that would provide job seekers and prospective employers with better information and implementing apprenticeship programs similar to those used in Austria and Germany.