Learning and Development PresentsOPEN TALK SERIESA series of illuminating talks and interactions that open our minds to new ideasand concepts; that makes us look for newer or better ways of doing what we did;or point us to exciting things we have never done before. A range of topics onTechnology, Business, Fun and Life.Be part of the learning experience at Aditi.Join the talks. Its free. Free as in freedom at work, not free-beer.Speak at these events. Or bring an expert/friend to talk.Mail LEAD with topic and availability.
We are the first generation in human history to choose! 3 important life decisions we make • Spouse • Jobs/career • Place of residenceAnd xillions of daily choices • Clothes – 12 trousers, 28 shirts, 9 pair of socks, 18 T-shirts • Dinner - 42 local options • Ketchup – 7 • Cars – 87 mid segment variants
How do we chose what makes us happy ? Friday evening Options2% Probability 98% Utility Value Expectation
Rational choice levers EmpiricalObjectivity of probability estimations acceptance of outcomes Remembering Expectation ofSubjectivity of utility estimations how I will feel when I get it Imagining and forward predictions
How good are we at forward predictions Imagine yourself here The real dealTurns out, we suck at it.But we rock when it comes to adapting.
Here is a easy oneWhat do you want to be when you grow up ? Ice cream seller 6 year old Kite flier Doctor 12 year old Astronaut Noble prize winner, Physics 15 year old Spend every free moment watching **** Manager 23 year old NRI What do you want to be, now ?
Prisoners of today 2000, as imagined in 1935 Zeppelins All white men All suited Offices with high power distance and what cars!!So much of what we think will make us happy 5 yrs henceis what will make us happy 5 mins hence. It’s scary.
How the brain figures itSeat of forwardprojections Seat of judgment We are the only creatures that thinks about the future Are we any better for it ? This insight = 8 nobles between Economics, medicine and chemistry
Biases in prediction and choiceAnchoring bias : Choices depend on where you start fromLoss aversion bias : twice likely to chose no-loss optionFrequency bias : ‘If it happens often, it will happen again’ expectationOverestimation bias : We think the world of ourselvesFraming bias : The context decides the outcomeAutopilot bias : The large popocorn bag gets eaten just as well.We overestimate the likelihood of events we can easily remember. ?Representative bias : Finding patterns when they are none : Lucky cap.
Biases in action6 noble prizes in last 15 years
The brain is a wonderful dodo Lucky Phineas Gage
Lesson : Our happy decision making framework sucks
Geography of bliss Iceland = Bliss in failure Holland = Bliss in freedom UAE = Bliss in affordability Thailand = Bliss in acceptance Italy, Mongolia = Bliss in family Spain = bliss in unhurriedness Guatemala = bliss in respect
What about Income ?15,000 USD worth of Purchasing power – The magic number
Mathematical abstraction of bliss Wit = α + βxit + εitHow happy you are Your happinessat any given time predisposition Genetics, persona Your reaction to events Variables vector Euphoric, measured, glum Events, outcomes How happy you are at any given life stage Age, marriage, kids, weight