Por otra parte, el nivel de consumo de los hogares es muy superior en México en comparación con las economías BRIC y, de acuerdo a BCG, las perspectivas de crecimiento de la clase media es similar al de las economías BRIC y otras economías emergentes.
The GBPC often uses the metaphor of the global economy as a car engine, and three of the main cylinders —the United States, Europe and Japan—are not firing properly. They may not fully recover for some years, while China and India continue to fire strongly. Other emergent economies could help boost world growth. Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico had a combined GDP in 2009 of $4.9 trillion (roughly the equivalent of China's), but each of these countries faces challenges that are likely to restrain growth. A number of medium-sized and smaller economies, including South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, Chile and Malaysia, are growing healthily, and with the exception of South Korea have a demographic profile that promises many years of growth to come. Source: The great globalization shakeout. Martin Walker. AT Kearney
En varios informes de Goldman Sachs, se ha considerado que México es uno de los pocos países que pueden considerarse un rival potencial de las economías BRIC en los próximos 40 años. En un informe realizado por Goldman Sachs en 2007 se estimó que México podría convertirse en una de las cinco principales economías en el mundo, solo por detrás de China, EEUU, India y Brasil. Si bien en un informe similar realizado en 2008 la perspectiva se ajusto a la baja, la notable recuperación mostrada en los últimos meses han renovado el entusiasmo de los analistas respecto al potencial del país.
Since September of 2009, the Federal Government started a profound and historic Regulatory Reform. The goal is to reduce business transaction costs: We have eliminated almost 16 thousand internal norms in all the Federal Public Administration (that is almost 50% of the total) and more than 2 thousand procedures. Cutting that way red tape. Mexican Government implemented the web site www.tuempresa.gob.mx, to reduce 65% the costs to open a business according to the OECD and we reduced the time of complying federal requirements from 34 days to only a few hours. Now it takes nine days to open a business fulfilling all the federal and local procedures. The Program of Simplification of Foreign Trade is oriented to medium size enterprises and it is facilitating the access to industrial inputs at competitive prices through a progressive tariff dismantling scheme. This program has reduced business transaction cost generating important savings (USD 1 billion) . To support these measures, the SE and the Customs authority are working to implement a one-stop shop to fulfill all procedures regarding foreign trade operations. This new instrument will be operating by the end of 2011.
Nota: En lo relativo a la participación del sector automotriz en el PIB y en la Inversión Extranjera captada por México, es importante destacar que este nivel de participación convierte al sector automotriz en un sector de alta prioridad para el Gobierno de México.
ProMéxico hilft Ihnen gerne durch
WEF Competitivness ASA
THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVNESS
Integration is the Future.
Source: World Economic Forum.
The Global Competitiveness
Index: Basic Requirements.
Some facts: The market, the economy
Exports as a Growth Driver
US Non-petrol Imports
Source: World Bank
Strong recovery and macroeconomic stability
Macroeconomic Environment 2010-2011
(Score and Ranking)
Emerging market overheating index, 2011
Source: World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Index: Basic
Requirements. 139 economies are considered.
Source: The Economist
Looking for reasons?
Despite the perceived economic slowdown in
the World …
Mexico is in a situation less vulnerable than
With a budget deficit of under 3% of GDP
and a total public debt of less than 40%
Mexico would meet the Maastricht criteria!
Source: Countries' Central Banks and National Statistics Offices, JP Morgan and Global Competitiveness Report 2009
Expenditure of households on goods and
services for individual consumption
Forecasted growth of middle income households 1
Although income levels in
Mexico are similar to those in
emerging economies, the
level of household
consumption is higher.
Source: Own estimations based on data from Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real
Expenditures, 2005 International Comparison Program - World Bank (2008)
1/The original data are for 2005 and the estimations for 2008 were made using the observed
growth rates from those countries.
Source: Own estimations based on ata from Winning in Emerging-Market Cities, Boston
Consulting Group (2010).
1/ Middle income households are those with annual income over $10,000 dlls.
Projected average annual GDP growth rate (% 2009-2050)
In the long run,
outpace G20 advanced
Source: AT Kearney, 2010
Gross Domestic Product
Source: Goldman Sachs. The N-11: More Than an Acronym. Global Economics Paper No: 153. March, 2007.
1/ Estimaciones de Goldman Sachs
It is estimated that by
2050, Mexico will become
the fifth largest economy
and its GDP per capita
GDP per capita
will be comparable with
those of developed
Competitiveness: market access
Trade facilitation indicators:
Trading across borders rank
Mexico's rank (WEF market access sub index)
Source: Doing bussiness
Source: World Economic Forum 2010
Reduction of norms in Federal Government
Time to open a business
Source: Ministry of Public Function
Source: World Bank
Source: Doing Business 2011, World Bank.
2009 2010 2011
Trade and legal frameworks
North America: the
Europe: seize opportunities
and deepen FTAs
Latin America: promote
Asia: selective and
ad hoc approach
Presence in forae: ( WTO, APEC, OECD, LAIA)
Mexico’s Trade Balance 2011
EUROPEAN UNION: -$18 billion USD
NAFTA: +$101 billion USD
ASIA: -$92 billion USD
OTHERS*: -$3 billion
LATIN AMERICA: +$11 billion
*Includes Africa, Oceania and other European countries
Source: 2011 Data. Mexico’s Central Bank and Global Trade Atlas.
Mexico is, in a nut shell
A big market
The Mexican economy has a GDP of
roughly 1 trillion dollars, with a population
of 112 million. The country’s GDP is
expected to reach 1.4 Mexicodollars in 2015 trade hub
Manufacturing costs: trillion has a
(IMF). cost advantage of 18.2%
business Mexico has 11 FTAs covering 43 countries, which
represents more than 60% of world GDP.
average (of 17 industries) relative to
the US (Source: Alix Partners 2009).
Mexico enjoys macroeconomic
… cost efficient
stability, responsibly managed
state finances and is pushing
reforms to further improve the
… and stable!
Attractive FDI destination
1. Geographic Location
Large U.S. border and coast both at the Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans and easy access to South America
2. Preferential access to
11 FTAs with 43 countries and an approved legal framework
with major trading partners
3. Skilled and competitive
Skilled workforce at relatively low cost, managerial skills and
4. Demographic window
In the next three decades, the number of economic
dependents will reach a record minimum (2025)
Foreign direct investment inflows per capita (1990-2009)
•BRICS get all the talk
•In spite of the hype, Mexico gets at least as much per capita FDI as they do
Source: Global Insight
Mexico is well positioned
1. Macroeconomic environment
2. Open economy
3. Economic complexity
4. Total manufacturing cost
5. Domestic market
7. Workforce quality
8. Engineering graduates (per capita)
9. Democratic system
10. Human Development Index
Equal or above Mexico
Below Mexico, but close
Clearly under Mexico
Source: 1. Macroeconomic Environment: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, Macroeconomic Environment/ 2. Open Economy: Doing Business
2012, Ease of Doing Business/ 3. Economic Sophistication: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, Harvard University/ 4. Total Manufacturing Cost, Manufacturing
Outsourcing Cost Index, Alix Partners/ 5. Domestic Market: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, Domestic Market Size Index/ 6. Demographic
Bonus: UN World Population Prospects. The 2010 Revision. Forecast of total dependency rate in 2025 (population <15 & 65+ years) (15-64)/ 7. Labor availability and
quality of the DFI Benchmark, Automotive OEM, Skills, attitudes and productivity/ 8. Engineering Graduates (per capita): UNESCO Institute for Statistics,
International Monetary Fund. Engineering, manufacturing and construction graduates per capita 2009/ 9. Democratic System: The Economist, Democracy Index
2011/ 10. Human Development Index: UN, Human Development Index.
Currency stability = risk mitigation
Expected Real Exchange Rate variation (2008-2012)
Buy and manufacture
where you intend
Source: Global Insight
Mexico´s place in the automotive industry (2011)
Exporter of light vehicles
(2.14 million units) 1
World´s largest vehicle producer
(2.69 million units) 1
World wide producer of
light vehicles (2.55 million
Exporter of commercial vehicles*
(95,175 units) 2
World wide producer of
commercial vehicles (136,678
19 of the top leading
automakers are located
in 15 states of Mexico.
The automotive industry in
Mexico accounts for:
6% of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
in the country3
4% of the national GDP 4
20% of the manufacturing GDP 4
23% of Mexican total exports 5
Source: Ministry of Economics 4 Source: INEGI
Source: Business Monitor International
Highest investment attraction in
aerospace manufacturing during the last
6th destination in the world for research
and development investment.
The level of exports tripled in 6 years,
reaching 3.2bn dollars in 2010.
240 companies are settled in the Mexican aerospace industry,
270% more than those established in the country in 2005.
top 10 provider to the American Aerospace Industry, better
than all BRIC countries.
What has been done to promote the IT sector in Mexico?
PROSOFT 2.0: A long run public policy (2002 – 2013)
Start, progress and goals
Mexico is ranked as the fourth global player in the exports of IT services and BPO after
India, the Philippines and China.
Mexico is the only Latin American country that scored "Very Good" in the assessment
of cost, while other countries have had only a grade of "Good."
Mexico is set at position 6 in the Global Services Location Index 2011 , becoming the
first North American country due to the availability of human capital and the financial
Mexico is ranked as the most competitive location allowing a cost savings of 53.4% in
activities of Back Office / Call centers, 31.7% in Software Design and 34.1% in Web and
Multimedia, compared to the location of U.S. operations.
What is ProMéxico?
One stop shop
Cooperation, advice and information