Qatar a Gamble or Destany


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A look at Qatar's Transformation, The Real Estate Perspective ...
GCC states on global stage;
Opportunity for emerging countries to enter new markets and geographies...

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  • The financial crises have led to a weakening of the traditional western corporate leaders.
  • Qatar a Gamble or Destany

    1. 1. Qatar The Gamble or Destiny  ASA February 2014
    2. 2. Qatar’s A Gamble OR A Destiny The Property Perspective Opportunities
    3. 3. From US Credit Crunch to Global Economic Crisis
    4. 4. Economic Crisis Synopsis IMMEDIATE IMPACT LONG TERM IMPLICATIONS  Fluctuation in commodity prices  Fears of a significant global recession  Nationalization of Banks  Consumer confidence affected  Stock markets are taking a plunge  Investor pessimism  Sharp increase in corporate defaults  Weakening of the traditional western corporate leaders  Shift from Mature to Emerging markets  Stronger emerging market giants from the Middle East and BRIC countries  Increasing role for Gulf states on global stage  Opportunity for emerging countries to enter new markets and geographies  Move to polarized global economy
    5. 5. Impact of Financial Crisis on Real Estate Markets Pre-Crisis Robust Demand Rents Rising Increasingly International Market Cheap & Plentiful Debt More Buyers than Sellers Cap Rates Falling Prime = Secondary Traded Volumes High Post-Crisis
    6. 6. Qatar , Middle East Less Impacted World Economic Outlook Q1, 2014 12 GDP Growth (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 World Source: IMF, Word Economic Outlook, March 2014 Advanced economies 2014 Middle East 2015 Qatar
    7. 7. Stages in Market Maturity Transparency Required Returns (Hurdle Rates) Market Volatility Catalyst Time Maturing Growth Cairo Muscat Doha Abu Dhabi Source:– World Winning Cities 2014 Dubai Core Moscow Shanghai London New York
    8. 8. MENA Transparency Highly Transparent Tier 1 Transparent Tier 2 Semi-Transparent Tier 3 Low-Transparent Tier 4 Opaque Tier 5 Dubai, Qatar Bahrain Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt Oman, Kuwait Pakistan, UAE (Other Emirates) Sudan, Algeria, Syria
    9. 9. Investor Sentiment – Global Asia Pacific 26% North America 10% South America 8% Eastern Europe 3% Western Europe 7% Africa 10%  Middle East still seen as strongest performing market globally (36%) although this has fallen from 56% back in September  Asia Pacific is seen as second strongest increased from 20% since last survey  Improvement in expected performance in North America from 5% since last survey Middle East 36%  Improvement in expected performance in Western Europe from 2% since last survey Source: Jones Lang LaSalle ISS, March 2014
    10. 10. Investor Sentiment - MENA Saudi Arabia offers strong potential – large and rapidly growing market continues to open up and offer new opportunities Bahrain 6% North Africa 4% Levant 5% UAE - Abu Dhabi 26% Kuw ait 2% Oman 2% Qatar 19% Qatar expected to offer strong performance building upon its reputation as the next emerging GCC real estate market and its gas wealth Investors still remain bullish towards the UAE, especially Abu Dhabi UAE - Dubai 11% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle ISS, March 2014 Saudi Arabia 25%
    11. 11. Key Strengths of Qatar 1 Growing population 2 Opportunity for infrastructure led investment 3 Strong government support 4 Highest GDP per capita in the world 5 3 Ample off-balance sheet income to support growth 6 4 Gas based economy (less fluctuating prices) 7 3 Regional influence 4
    12. 12. Qatar – World’s Highest GDP  Domestic and regional infrastructure investment  Securing the future through an active global agenda Source: IMF January 2014
    13. 13. Growth Estimates (2010 - 2014) Source: Various
    14. 14. Requirements to Recovery Dec 2013 May 2014 Dec 2013 May 2014 Macro Economic Real Estate Global economic stability Increased occupier demand Recovery in oil prices Reduction of Future supply pipeline Stability in employment levels Stabilisation of pricing levels Financial / Liquidity Increasing transaction levels Decline in cost of capital (interest rates) Consolidation of real estate participants Recovery in equity markets Implementation of new investment paradigm Recapitalization of banking sector Supporting Factors Increased funding available to real estate sector Recovery in tourism Improved brand perception Required Underway Improvement in corporate governance Achieved Concerted government action Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
    15. 15. Emerging World Winning Cities Moscow Prague Budapest Warsaw Beijing Doha Mexico City Abu Dhabi Delhi Shanghai Mumbai Bangkok Bangalore Kuala Lumpur Sao Paulo Johannesburg Buenos Aires Santiago Source: World Winning Cities, 2014
    16. 16. Doha: A Destination in the Making 1. Performance 2. Planning 3. Population 4. Place Making 5. Power 6. People 7. Purity 8. Process 9. Property 10. Physical Source: World Winning Cities, 2014
    17. 17. Thank You