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Online Training Resource for Climate Adaptation: Adaptation Strategies - Handling Risk

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Handling Risk …

Handling Risk

This module discusses the three main risk approaches:
Risk seeker
“best shot”
Risk Averter


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    • 1. Online Training Resource: Climate Adaptation Adaptation Strategies
    • 2. Process Stage 2Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling RiskHandling RiskThis module discusses the three main risk approaches:• Risk seeker• “best shot”• Risk Averter Climate Adaptation Deborah Davies, Carlo Aall, Eli Heiberg, 2012Online Training Resource
    • 3. Process Stage 2Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling RiskDefinition and Context What is Risk? Standard definition Probability x potential threat = risk The basic problem when assessing climate change risks • In most cases you do not know the probability for a specific climate change parameter at a specific location and a specific year. Thus; when talking about “risks” in a climate change vulnerability context, we are really talking about a potential threat. Climate Adaptation Online Training Resource
    • 4. Process Stage 2Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk3 Basic Approaches• Risk seeker -Taking high risks and thus saving money on adaptation.• “Best shot” -The intermediate position between risk lover and risk avoider• Risk averter -Reducing risks as much as possible by means of adaptation. Climate AdaptationOnline Training Resource
    • 5. Process Stage 2Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling RiskWhat should be your risk approach? Example from Norway Equal probable Expected changes in precipitation in Sogn og categories of climate Fjordane by 2050 in relation to 1961-90 projections Low value - 5,8 % Avarage +10,3 % High value + 14,7 % Risk averter: Suggested by the Norwegian Public Committee on Climate Change Adaptation. Climate AdaptationOnline Training Resource
    • 6. Process Stage 2Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling RiskRisk-averting in practiceIf you are planning a hydro-electric power plant, you shouldfocus on the climate scenario which predicts a reduction inprecipitationIf you are planning residential housing areas close to a river, youshould focus on the climate scenario which predicts an increasein precipitation Climate AdaptationOnline Training Resource