Demography and fertility related statistics 2
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Demography and fertility related statistics 2 Presentation Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2.  
  • 3.  
  • 4. Sources of Demographic Data : 1. Census 2. Vital Events Registers 3. Surveys 4. Sample Registration System Measures of Population Projection : By “Population projections”, we mean estimating and forecasting the population of a country or a region for a given time. Mathematical Methods : ●● Arithmetic Growth Method ●● Geometric Growth Method ●● Exponential Growth Method ●● Component Projection Method
  • 5. DELAY THE FIRST POSTPONE THE SECOND AND PREVENT THE THIRD Demographic process:: Fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobility
    • IMPORTANT FACTS:::::
    • ¾ th world population lives in developing country.
    • 2) India  2.4%land area but 17.56% world population, China  19.96%.
    • 3) 180 /minute population increased worldwide
    • 4) Age pyramid --- India  broad base and tapering top.
    • Switzerland  bulge at middle and narrower base
    • 5) 1/3 rd of population 15 years  reproductive age  potential for population growth.
    • 6) Sex ratio:::: No. of female/ 1000 males.
    • 7) Dependency ratio:: Young age dependency ratio—0-14 years
    • Old age dependency ratio-- ≥ 65 years
  • 6. 8) Growth rate::::: CBR-CDR 9) Family size at a point of time:: total no. of child to a woman has borne at a point of time -----COMPLETED FAMILY SIZE=TFR TWO CHILD FAMILY NORM  NRR=1  COUPLE PROTECTION RATE=60% RATING ANNUAL GROWTH RATE(%) REQUIRED YEARS FOR THE POPULATION TO DOUBLE STATIONARY NO GROWTH -------------- SLOW GROWTH <0.5 >139 MODERATE GROWTH 0.5-1 (0.9 world) 139-70 RAPID GROWTH 1-1.5 70-47 VERY RAPID GROWTH 1.5-2 (1.8 India) 47-35 EXPLOSIVE GROWTH 2.0-2.5 35-28 2.5-3.0 28-23 3.0-3.5 23-20 3.5-4.0 20-18
  • 7. Demographic Transition : In 1929 the American demographer Warren Thompson, observed changes in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so and then formulated a model called “Demographic Transition” that describes population change over time .
    • Demographic Transition model recognizes five demographic stages:
    • High stationary e.g. India till 1920
    • Early expanding e.g. South Asia, Africa
    • Late expanding e.g. India , China , Singapore.
    • Low stationary e.g. Austria, UK , Denmark, Sweden
    • Declining e.g. Germany, Hungary
  • 8. India’s population growth during the twentieth century can be classified as follows : 1)High stationary /Pretransitional phase : 1901-1920: This period was characterized by a high birth rate and high death rate (46-49 per 1000) and growth rate was slow, close to zero. Year 1921  year of great divide . There after growth rate steadily 2) Early expanding :::: A) Early transitional phase: 1921-1951: birth rate and death rate but BR>DR growth rate steadily  ≥1 but ≤2. During this period India experienced rapid growth. B) Mid transitional phase: 1951-2000: rapid reduction in mortality but little effect on BR…… growth rate ≥ 2 during this period. During this period India experienced explosive rapid growth. 3) Late expanding / Late transitional phase: 2001-till now…….probably up to 2045 : BR decline DR decline but BR>DR growth rate started slowing down during this period. 4) Low stationary/Post transitional phase: India is expected to enter this phase in 2045: Low BR Low DR and growth rate will be slow, close to zero.
  • 9.
    • 2011 census of India
    • Census has been conducted in India since 1872.
    • The 15th Indian National census was conducted in two phases, house listing and population enumeration.
    • House listing phase began on April 1 , 2010 and involved collection of information about all buildings. House listing Schedule contained 35 questions. Information for National Population Register was also collected in the first phase, which will be used to issue a 12-digit unique identification number to all Indians by Unique Identification Authority of India . National Population Register Household schedule contained 9 questions.
    • The second population enumeration phase was conducted between 9 to 28 February 2011. Population enumeration schedule contained 29 questions.
    • 2.7 million officials visited households in about 7,000 towns and 600,000 villages, classifying the population according to gender, religion, education and occupation.
    • The cost of the exercise was in the region of 22bn rupees ($490m; £300m).
  • 10.
    • 2011 census of India
    • Census has been conducted in India since 1872.
    • The 15th Indian National census was conducted in two phases, houselisting and population enumeration.
    • Houselisting phase began on April 1 , 2010 and involved collection of information about all buildings. Houselisting Schedule contained 35 questions. Information for National Population Register was also collected in the first phase, which will be used to issue a 12-digit unique identification number to all Indians by Unique Identification Authority of India . National Population Register Household schedule contained 9 questions.
    • The second population enumeration phase was conducted between 9 to 28 February 2011. Population enumeration schedule contained 29 questions.
    • 2.7 million officials visited households in about 7,000 towns and 600,000 villages, classifying the population according to gender, religion, education and occupation.
    • The cost of the exercise was in the region of 22bn rupees ($490m; £300m).
  • 11. Census report Provisional data from the census was released on March 31, 2011. Complete results are expected to be released in 2012 Population Total 1,210,193,422 Males 623,724,248 Females 586,469,174 Literacy Total 74.04% Males 82.14% Females 65.46% Density of population per km 2 382 Sex ratio per 1000 males 940 females Child Sex ratio(0-6 age group) per 1000 males 914 females
  • 12. Population growth—1991-2001  21.54% 2001-2011  17.64% Literacy 2001 2011 Total 65% 74% Male 75% 82% Female 54% 65% Sex ratio 2001 2011 T 933 940 ↓ 6Y 927 914 UP MOST POP.  199 M SIKKIM LOWEST  6,07,000 THANE  NORTH 24 PGS POP. DISTRICT
  • 13.
    • FERTILITY(NATALITY):: ACTUAL BEARING OF CHILDREN
    • Age at marriage
    • Duration of married life
    • Spacing of children
    • Education  NFHS 3 shows
    • illiterate women TFR>1.7 times
    • high school educated women.
    • Economic status
    • Caste and religion
    • Nutrition
    • Family planning
  • 14. No. of live births during the year Estimated mid year population 1000 BIRTH RATE
  • 15. No. of live births during the year Estimated mid year female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year 1000 GFR
  • 16. No. of live births during the year Estimated mid year married female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year 1000 GMFR
  • 17. No. of live births during in a particular age group the year Estimated mid year female population of the same age group 1000 ASFR
  • 18. No. of live births during in a particular age group the year Estimated mid year married female population of the same age group 1000 AMSFR
  • 19. 1000 TFR 5 15-19 45-49 ASFR The average no. of children would be born to a woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….
  • 20. 1000 TMFR 5 15-19 45-49 ASMFR The average no. of children would be born to a married woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….
  • 21. 1000 GRR 5 15-19 45-49 ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING NO MORTALITY ….
  • 22. 1000 NRR 5 15-19 45-49 ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING FIXED AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY RATES ….
  • 23.
    • CHILD WOMAN RATIO
    • PREGNANCY RATE
    • ABORTION RATE
    • MARRIAGE RATE
    • ABORTION RATIO
  • 24. Role of Demography in Public Health Administration : i) Mortality rates by age-sex and its geographical distribution with respect to various diseases are helpful in locating and identifying diseases of public health importance with respect to age-sex-location, for planning remedial measures to control these diseases, future planning for prevention of these diseases. ii) Percentage distribution of population by age-sex-location are helpful in understanding health and health care needs of various age groups by sex by location, for planning, designing, evaluation and effective implementation of various public health programs. For example : Vaccination and immunization program for children under 5 years of age, Mother and Child Health program for mother and new born, Family planning program, old age program, nutritional program etc. iii) Determining the success or failure of health programs. iv) To describe the level of community health. v) To determine the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. vi) To determine the relative importance of different fatal diseases with respective to age and sex. vii) To discover solution to health problems and find clues for public health administration.
  • 25. a) Arithmetic Growth Method : In this method it is assumed that there is an equal addition every year to the population during the inter censal period and this addition is taken to be average increase per year. Arithmetic Growth Method for estimating population is P t =a+tb where P0 population at time t is, P0 and P1 are populations at two consecutive censuses. a = P0 and b = (( P1 - P0 ) ÷ 10) and inter census period = 10years. For example populations of a town A at censuses 1 st Mar 1981 and 1st Mar 1991 were 50,000 and 90,000. Estimate population of the town on 1st Mar 1985. Here a = 50,000, inter-censal period = 10 years, b =4,000 per year and t =4, = 66,000 b) Geometric Growth Method : This method assumes the population begets population at a constant rate of increase on the compound interest law. Geometric Growth Method for estimating population is where r is growth rate and . In the above example, =0.0605. = 63,252.69
  • 26. c) Exponential Growth Method : In this method it is assumed that there is an exponential growth. Exponential Growth Method for estimating population is where r is exponential growth rate In the above example =0.05878 and = 63,252.69 d) Component Projection Method : This method is mainly used for future population projections (future estimates) using following model. Here 0 stands for base year from which population projected is made, t denotes the period of projection from the base year. represents number of births, number of deaths, number of immigration and number of emigration during the period 0-t respectively. P0 Represents population at the base year 0. This method makes assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration for the projection period based. This method requires information regarding age-sex distribution, age-sex specific mortality, fertility and migration distribution by age-sex for the base year 0 and estimates for the period t.
  • 27.