Preparing for the future: anticipating, monitoring and adapting to environmental change

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Preparing for the future: anticipating, monitoring and adapting to environmental change

  1. 1. Preparing for the future<br />How can we anticipate, monitor and adapt to environmental change?<br />Mark Reed<br />Unvegetated dunes, Bokspits, southwest Botswana<br />
  2. 2. “Where do we come from?<br />What are we?<br />Where are we going?”<br />
  3. 3. Fortune Telling<br />?<br />
  4. 4. Dreaming<br />
  5. 5. Scenarios<br />“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay<br />“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X<br />
  6. 6. Farmer interview, Werda, southeast Botswana<br />
  7. 7. Farmer interview, Boteti District, Botswana<br />Peak District National Park<br />
  8. 8. Plan<br />How can draw on both local and scientific knowledge to:<br />More effectively anticipate what the future might hold?<br />Empower stakeholders to monitor changes as they unfold?<br />Adapt rapidly and effectively to future change?<br />
  9. 9. Grouse model, Peak District National Park<br />1. Anticipating Change<br />Stakeholder workshop, Nidderdale AONB, Yorkshire Dales<br />Site Visit, Peak District National Park<br />
  10. 10. 1. Better understand stakeholders priorities and model social relationships through stakeholder analysis and social network analysis, and select working group<br />
  11. 11. 2. Understand current/future challenges/opportunities: interviews & site visits with stakeholders/researchers<br />
  12. 12. 3. Conceptual system model from interviews, site visits & literature; trace drivers to create scenarios<br />
  13. 13. 4. Refine and prioritise scenarios for investigation<br />
  14. 14. 5. Model possible futures: details, feedbacks, scenarios interactions, ES trade-offs for future planning<br />
  15. 15. 6. Communicate model outputs through films that depict different likely futures<br />
  16. 16. www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands<br />7. Find innovative ways that people can respond and discuss ideas from literature (How would you respond if this happened?)<br />Model innovative ideas: how likely to work? <br />Use results to revise/refine ideas to ensure they work<br />
  17. 17. ES synergies & trade-offs<br /><ul><li>Carbon management has a number of synergies: water quality, fire risk, protecting blanket bog species, limiting scrub encroachment and perhaps generating income
  18. 18. All scenarios appear likely to compromise upland biodiversity
  19. 19. Already a source of conflict...</li></ul>Golden Plover<br />
  20. 20. Recreation<br />Hill Farming<br />Water Companies<br />Interview sub-sample of Moors for the Future partnership who communicate on a monthly or more frequent basis<br />Sporting Interests<br />Conservation<br />
  21. 21. Recreation<br />Hill Farming<br />“At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.”<br />Water Companies<br />Sporting Interests<br />Conservation<br />“I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”<br />
  22. 22. “The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.”<br />“[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.”<br />Recreation<br />Hill Farming<br />Water Companies<br />Sporting Interests<br />Conservation<br />“I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”<br />
  23. 23. <ul><li>The majority perceive considerable overlap between their views on upland management and views of those they know from other groups
  24. 24. Need to foster greater trust between some groups to avoid exacerbating conflict under future scenarios</li></ul>Recreation<br />Water Companies<br />Hill Farming<br />Conservation<br />Sporting Interests<br />“A mix with people doing different things is our best hope of creating some semblance of balance.” <br />Agent<br />
  25. 25. Hydrological Monitoring, Guadalentin, Spain<br />2. Monitoring Change<br />Plant ecology sampling, southwest Botswana<br />
  26. 26. Fenced private rangeland next to communal area, southwest Botswana<br />Indicators<br />Examining a thorn bush, Bray farm, southeast Botswana<br />Oral history, southeast Botswana<br />
  27. 27. 1<br />10<br />20 yrs<br />Yr 1<br />Yr 10<br />Yr 20<br />Thorny bush encroachment in the Kalahari, Botswana<br />
  28. 28. Identifying indicators, southwest Botswana<br />Ecological evaluation of indicators<br />Evaluating indicators with communities using Multi-Criteria Evaluation<br />
  29. 29. 3. Adapting to change<br />3. Adapting to Change<br />Guadalentin, Spain<br />Focus group with Kalahari innovators<br />
  30. 30. Tunisia<br />Spain<br />Portugal<br />China<br />Lettuce farmer, Guadalentin, Spain<br />Turkey<br />Botswana<br />
  31. 31.
  32. 32. Impacts<br /><ul><li>Manuals for GoB implementation of NAP
  33. 33. Knowledge management system for UNCCD</li></li></ul><li>Impacts<br />"The Sustainable Uplands project is a great example of research that is listening to and valuing those people that manage and live in upland environments whilst at the same time informing UK government and the general public. It is a challenging time for the uplands and the kind of research being carried out by this project is essential when trying to find out how we can sustain rural communities under future pressures”<br />Stuart Burgess CBE, Chairman of the Commission for Rural Communities and Rural Advocate<br />
  34. 34. Business<br />Informing Yorkshire Water, Premier Waste PLC and United Utilities about how they can reduce water treatment costs by reducing water colour inputs from upland management<br />
  35. 35. Policy<br />Findings included in NEA (DEFRA/UNEP)<br />IUCN commissioned review on peatland policy options<br />“Future of the Uplands” for Foresight Land Use Futures<br />Commissioned input to CRC Inquiry into the Future of England’s Upland Communities<br />Case study: Scottish Government Rural Land Use Study<br />Invited to present to Scottish Government Pack Inquiry & Land Use Strategy teams<br />Value for Money report for Public Accounts Committee<br />“Making Space for Water” cross-Govt. programme <br />Natural England Ecosystem Service Pilot<br />
  36. 36. Questions<br />What makes stakeholder participation deliver positive environmental outcomes in different contexts? How might the attitudes and behaviours that lead to positive environmental outcomes diffuse through society via social learning? <br />British Academy and EU-funded ECOPAG<br />
  37. 37. Questions<br />What are the ingredients of successful knowledge exchange? How does knowledge from science and other sources get into policy and practice and vice versa, and how is it transformed or blocked along the way?<br />RELU and EU-funded Ecocycles projects<br />
  38. 38. Questions<br />Does people’s engagement with the environment enhance their personal well-being? If so how, and does this lead them to engage in more sustainable behaviours?<br />RCUK-funded Be-WEL project<br />
  39. 39. Contact<br />http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/<br /> Follow me on: <br /> www.twitter.com/lecmsr<br />Two films about the future of the uplands: <br />http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htm<br />Email: m.reed@abdn.ac.uk<br />Call or text on: 0753 8082343<br />
  40. 40. Contact<br />http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/<br />Follow me on: <br />www.twitter.com/lecmsr<br />Two films about the future of the uplands: <br />http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htm<br />Email: m.reed@abdn.ac.uk<br />Call or text on: 0753 8082343<br />

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