Overview on framework and issues  related to prioritising peatland   restoration and conservation      activities on a UK ...
Outline Aims and overview Scenario selection Choice of time-frame Cost-effectiveness of measures Wider ecosystem serv...
General aim framing WP2 To generate a better understanding of the economics of peatland ecosystem services in order to in...
Related VNN challenges Relates particularly to VNN challenges 1 and 3 VNN challenge 1: How can the complexity of socio-e...
Overview RESTORATION                         OPPORTUNITY COST  SCENARIO                          OF RESTORATIONCOMPARED WI...
Spatially explicit values Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of  peatland in the UK Information needs: ...
Evaluating the impacts of restoration and  conservation over time   Net   emissions                                       ...
Restoration scenario Different degrees of restoration possible? Varying ‘effectiveness’ of restoration activities (i.e. ...
Restoration scenario            Net GHG emissions                 baseline                                plus marginal be...
Restoration scenario            Probability of high flows              relative to baseline                    baseline   ...
Restoration scenario            Probability of high flows              relative to baseline                    baseline   ...
Restoration scenario            Probability of high flows              relative to baseline                    baseline   ...
Restoration scenario: biodiversity• There is a consensus that biodiversity (conservation) is  very valuable• Placing monet...
Restoration scenario: biodiversity• A specific area is not considered suitable for restoration or  conservation if peatlan...
Evaluating the impacts of restoration and  conservation over time   Net   emissions                                       ...
Choice of timeframe Impacts may not be linear over time What would be an appropriate timeframe for analysis?    20 – 30...
Spatially explicit values Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of  peatland in the UK Information needs: ...
Uncertainty related to scenarios How certain are predictions about future states of peatlands?    what is the range of m...
Uncertainty related to activities What is the level of variation (based on current knowledge/models) regarding the impact...
Outcome-related risk Generally individuals tend to prefer sure options over uncertain ones when pay-offs are held constan...
Incorporating risk in valuation In (environmental) CBA, outcomes tend to be treated as certain and individuals as risk ne...
Back to the general aim… To generate a better understanding of the economics of peatland ecosystem services in order to i...
Summary Clearly a very demanding task – with lots of potential to  learn on the way Will the outcomes of such research j...
24
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Overview on framework and issues related to prioritising peatland restoration and conservation activities on a UK scale, and link to VNN challenges 1 and 3

1,290 views

Published on

Presentation by Klaus Glenck at VNN peatland workshop, Leeds 18th January 2012

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,290
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
408
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Overview on framework and issues related to prioritising peatland restoration and conservation activities on a UK scale, and link to VNN challenges 1 and 3

  1. 1. Overview on framework and issues related to prioritising peatland restoration and conservation activities on a UK scale Klaus Glenk VNN workshop on assessing & valuing peatland ecosystem services January 2012, Leeds 1
  2. 2. Outline Aims and overview Scenario selection Choice of time-frame Cost-effectiveness of measures Wider ecosystem service benefits Uncertainty 2
  3. 3. General aim framing WP2 To generate a better understanding of the economics of peatland ecosystem services in order to inform decision-making on peatland restoration and conservation activities in the UK Focus on working towards the development of a framework for prioritising peatland restoration/conservation activities on a UK scale What is needed? Challenges? 3
  4. 4. Related VNN challenges Relates particularly to VNN challenges 1 and 3 VNN challenge 1: How can the complexity of socio-ecological systems be incorporated into valuations of biodiversity, ecosystem services and natural resource use?  Incorporating spatial variability in the natural environment within analyses  Risk and uncertainty VNN challenge 3: How can issues of scale be incorporated within valuations of biodiversity, ecosystem services and natural resource use?  How do variations in scale affect natural processes, marginal values, etc?  What are the barriers to cross-scale analysis and how can they be overcome?  Are there scale-dependent transitions in the interactions between ecological environmental and socio-economic data in the valuation process? 4
  5. 5. Overview RESTORATION OPPORTUNITY COST SCENARIO OF RESTORATIONCOMPARED WITH BASELINE UPFRONT AND COSTS RECURRING COSTS OF IMPLEMENTATION NET BENEFITS CLIMATE BIODIVERSITY REGULATION: NET GHG EMISSION OTHER SERVICES CHANGES BENEFITS WATER-RELATED Valuing CULTURAL SERVICES: SERVICES: WATER impacts Areas with RECREATION AND QUALITY, QUANTITY highest benefit- CULTURAL HERITAGE AND FLOOD cost ratio should then be REGULATION prioritised 5
  6. 6. Spatially explicit values Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of peatland in the UK Information needs:  How will a peatland area degrade (or not) under various ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘restoration’ scenarios?  What is the opportunity cost of restoration/conservation activities (and their upfront and recurring costs)?  How much does a given level of restoration/conservation of an area of peatland contribute to the wider ecosystem service benefits due to peatland restoration and conservation? Distinction between lowland and upland peatlands? 6
  7. 7. Evaluating the impacts of restoration and conservation over time Net emissions Without (CO2 eq) restoration/conservation The area between the two curves gives the measure of effectiveness over a certain time period Time With restoration/conservation 7Changes in carbon stocks should include both above-ground and below-ground biomass
  8. 8. Restoration scenario Different degrees of restoration possible? Varying ‘effectiveness’ of restoration activities (i.e. different time needed for ‘full’ restoration)? Ecosystem service delivery of particular area independent of condition of adjacent area:  Net GHG emissions  Provisioning services  (Recreation) Ecosystem service delivery of particular area depends on condition of adjacent area:  Water-related services 8
  9. 9. Restoration scenario Net GHG emissions baseline plus marginal benefits of reducing net GHG -20% emissions are more or less constant =  spatial optimisation straightforward -12% + 9 -8%
  10. 10. Restoration scenario Probability of high flows relative to baseline baseline plus marginal benefits of flood risk reduction may -12% diminish with increasing risk reduction ≠  spatial optimisation complicated -4% + 10 -3%
  11. 11. Restoration scenario Probability of high flows relative to baseline baseline A -12% contribution of A and B to flood risk reduction?? B ≠ -4% B + 11 A -3%
  12. 12. Restoration scenario Probability of high flows relative to baseline baseline Is it possible to identify -12% areas of peatland that are independent with respect to service delivery (e.g. = different sub-catchments or ‘hydrological response A -8% units’)? + 12 -4% B
  13. 13. Restoration scenario: biodiversity• There is a consensus that biodiversity (conservation) is very valuable• Placing monetary values on biodiversity, especially the non- use value aspects, is difficult; and it is questionable if results of such an undertaking can be treated with much confidence• In a framework for prioritising peatland restoration and conservation, biodiversity could enter via a ‘no regret’ approach conditioning the selection of appropriate restoration and conservation measures 13
  14. 14. Restoration scenario: biodiversity• A specific area is not considered suitable for restoration or conservation if peatland restoration or conservation compromised biodiversity conservation objectives• But: it often seems to be difficult to agree on clear objectives for biodiversity conservation • e.g., near natural state may not support greatest ‘diversity’ 14
  15. 15. Evaluating the impacts of restoration and conservation over time Net emissions Without (CO2 eq) restoration/conservation Time With restoration/conservation 15Changes in carbon stocks should include both above-ground and below-ground biomass
  16. 16. Choice of timeframe Impacts may not be linear over time What would be an appropriate timeframe for analysis?  20 – 30 – 50 years?  How would the choice of a timeframe influence results?  One thing to think about here is the issue of protecting existing stocks against restoring degraded stock: do longer time periods favour one or the other?  Effects of discounting (generally: choice of discount rate)?  How long does it take for a peatland to be (fully) restored (no additional effects)? How does uncertainty/variability in model predictions change when the period of time increases? 16
  17. 17. Spatially explicit values Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of peatland in the UK Information needs:  How will a peatland area degrade (or not) under various ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘restoration’ scenarios?  What is the opportunity cost of restoration/conservation activities (and their upfront and recurring costs)?  How much does a given level of restoration/conservation of an area of peatland contribute to the ecosystem service benefits due to peatland restoration and conservation? Distinction between lowland and upland peatlands? 17
  18. 18. Uncertainty related to scenarios How certain are predictions about future states of peatlands?  what is the range of model outcomes?  can this range be described probabilistically, i.e. in terms of risk? Which are key variables influencing the sensitivity of predictions of future states of peatlands? 18
  19. 19. Uncertainty related to activities What is the level of variation (based on current knowledge/models) regarding the impact of restoration activities on net GHG emissions? What is the level of uncertainty associated with the effectiveness of restoration/conservation activities regarding flood and water (quality) regulation? What drives variation in both? Can variation be described in probabilistic terms? 19
  20. 20. Outcome-related risk Generally individuals tend to prefer sure options over uncertain ones when pay-offs are held constant (they tend to be risk-averse) In the presence of ‘risky choices’ (risk regarding outcomes of restoration/conservation), individuals may therefore demand a risk premium (minimum WTA for risk) This is basically the amount by which the value of an environmental good should be reduced given that outcomes are risky 20
  21. 21. Incorporating risk in valuation In (environmental) CBA, outcomes tend to be treated as certain and individuals as risk neutral Increasing variance (risk) regarding the effectiveness of restoration or conservation activities could be ‘penalised’ ex-post in the decision-making process Information on outcome-related risk could be incorporated directly into primary valuation studies  e.g., respondents to a stated preference question could be informed about the likely range of outcomes they are asked to value Perform sensitivity analysis 21
  22. 22. Back to the general aim… To generate a better understanding of the economics of peatland ecosystem services in order to inform decision-making on peatland restoration and conservation activities in the UK Focus on working towards the development of a framework for prioritising peatland restoration/conservation activities on a UK scale What is needed? Challenges? 22
  23. 23. Summary Clearly a very demanding task – with lots of potential to learn on the way Will the outcomes of such research justify the amount of effort that is needed to generate decent results? Potential for simplification e.g. regarding the selection of restoration/conservation scenarios by imposing certain rules and constraints Is the ‘science’ available to support the necessary valuation? 23
  24. 24. 24

×