I S R A E L I Nuclear Program

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Paper presented during my Masters studies at Alliant International University

Paper presented during my Masters studies at Alliant International University

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  • 1. Israel Nuclear Weapons a challenge to Peace and Security in the Middle East Final Paper for the Course IRL6999 Terrorism, Int. Crime & Int. Crime Tribunal Under The Supervision of Professor Dr. Ghaleb Krame Presented by Abdelhamied El-RafieMAIR Student at Alliant International University Mexico city CampusAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 2. Introduction:My research topic will be “ Israel Nuclear Weapons a challenge to Peace and Security inthe Middle East”My Research questions are ? 1. How did the Israeli Nuclear Program start? 2. Is it a part of International Strategies for Security in the Middle East to give Israel A deter Force to have the Edge on other powers in the region? 3. Why Israel is denying officially its program? 4. To what extend this Program is affecting Peace and security in the Middle east? 5. What is the Israeli speech act towards any attempt of touching the issue “security of Israel” with regards to its Nuclear program?My Hypothesis will be “ that the security dynamics in Israel plus its direct strong allywith the US will push to keep its Nuclear Program regardless any attempt by otherforces to dismantle it plus preventing any other Parties in the region from acquiring suchweapons but this Strategy will not completely succeed it will face challenges from otherparties In the Region and this will be a challenge to the balance of powers in the regionand it will have negative impact in the International Security system in the Long termwith the Assumption of that that System will be multi polar“Historical background about Israeli Nuclear Program:According to FAS and Aljazeerah(2) there is an agreement on what FAS websiteinformation in which I quote the Historical background about the Israeli NuclearProgram :Abdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 3. “ Israel has not confirmed that it has nuclear weapons and officially maintains that it willnot be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. Yet theexistence of Israeli nuclear weapons is a "public secret" by now due to thedeclassification of large numbers of formerly highly classified US governmentdocuments which show that the United States by 1975 was convinced that Israel hadnuclear weapons.HistoryIsrael began actively investigating the nuclear option from its earliest days. In 1949,HEMED GIMMEL a special unit of the IDFs Science Corps, began a two-yeargeological survey of the Negev desert with an eye toward the discovery of uraniumreserves. Although no significant sources of uranium were found, recoverable amountswere located in phosphate deposits.The program took another step forward with the creation of the Israel Atomic EnergyCommission (IAEC) in 1952. Its chairman, Ernst David Bergmann, had long advocatedan Israeli bomb as the best way to ensure "that we shall never again be led as lambs to theslaughter." Bergmann was also head of the Ministry of Defenses Research andInfrastructure Division (known by its Hebrew acronym, EMET), which had taken overthe HEMED research centers (HEMED GIMMEL among them, now renamed Machon 4)as part of a reorganization. Under Bergmann, the line between the IAEC and EMETblurred to the point that Machon 4 functioned essentially as the chief laboratory for theIAEC. By 1953, Machon 4 had not only perfected a process for extracting the uraniumfound in the Negev, but had also developed a new method of producing heavy water,providing Israel with an indigenous capability to produce some of the most importantAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 4. nuclear materials.For reactor design and construction, Israel sought the assistance of France. Nuclearcooperation between the two nations dates back as far as early 1950s, when constructionbegan on Frances 40MWt heavy water reactor and a chemical reprocessing plant atMarcoule. France was a natural partner for Israel and both governments saw anindependent nuclear option as a means by which they could maintain a degree ofautonomy in the bipolar environment of the cold war.In the fall of 1956, France agreed to provide Israel with an 18 MWt research reactor.However, the onset of the Suez Crisis a few weeks later changed the situationdramatically. Following Egypts closure of the Suez Canal in July, France and Britain hadagreed with Israel that the latter should provoke a war with Egypt to provide theEuropean nations with the pretext to send in their troops as peacekeepers to occupy andreopen the canal zone. In the wake of the Suez Crisis, the Soviet Union made a thinlyveiled threat against the three nations. This episode not only enhanced the Israeli viewthat an independent nuclear capability was needed to prevent reliance on potentiallyunreliable allies, but also led to a sense of debt among French leaders that they had failedto fulfill commitments made to a partner. French premier Guy Mollet is even quoted assaying privately that France "owed" the bomb to Israel.On 3 October 1957, France and Israel signed a revised agreement calling for France tobuild a 24 MWt reactor (although the cooling systems and waste facilities were designedto handle three times that power) and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, achemical reprocessing plant. This complex was constructed in secret, and outside theIAEA inspection regime, by French and Israeli technicians at Dimona, in the NegevAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 5. desert under the leadership of Col. Manes Pratt of the IDF Ordinance Corps.Both the scale of the project and the secrecy involved made the construction of Dimona amassive undertaking. A new intelligence agency, the Office of Science Liasons,(LEKEM)was created to provide security and intelligence for the project. At the height construction,some 1,500 Israelis some French workers were employed building Dimona. To maintainsecrecy, French customs officials were told that the largest of the reactor components,such as the reactor tank, were part of a desalinization plant bound for Latin America. Inaddition, after buying heavy water from Norway on the condition that it not betransferred to a third country, the French Air Force secretly flew as much as four tons ofthe substance to Israel.Trouble arose in May 1960, when France began to pressure Israel to make the projectpublic and to submit to international inspections of the site, threatening to withhold thereactor fuel unless they did. President de Gaulle was concerned that the inevitablescandal following any revelations about French assistance with the project, especially thechemical reprocessing plant, would have negative repercussions for Frances internationalposition, already on shaky ground because of its war in Algeria.At a subsequent meeting with Ben-Gurion, de Gaulle offered to sell Israel fighter aircraftin exchange for stopping work on the reprocessing plant, and came away from themeeting convinced that the matter was closed. It was not. Over the next few months,Israel worked out a compromise. France would supply the uranium and componentsalready placed on order and would not insist on international inspections. In return, Israelwould assure France that they had no intention of making atomic weapons, would notreprocess any plutonium, and would reveal the existence of the reactor, which would beAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 6. completed without French assistance. In reality, not much changed - French contractorsfinished work on the reactor and reprocessing plant, uranium fuel was delivered and thereactor went critical in 1964.The United States first became aware of Dimonas existence after U-2 overflights in 1958captured the facilitys construction, but it was not identified as a nuclear site until twoyears later. The complex was variously explained as a textile plant, an agricultural station,and a metallurgical research facility, until David Ben-Gurion stated in December 1960that Dimona complex was a nuclear research center built for "peaceful purposes."There followed two decades in which the United States, through a combination of benignneglect, erroneous analysis, and successful Israeli deception, failed to discern first thedetails of Israels nuclear program. As early as 8 December 1960, the CIA issued a reportoutlining Dimonas implications for nuclear proliferation, and the CIA station in Tel Avivhad determined by the mid-1960s that the Israeli nuclear weapons program was anestablished and irreversible fact.United States inspectors visited Dimona seven times during the 1960s, but they wereunable to obtain an accurate picture of the activities carried out there, largely due to tightIsraeli control over the timing and agenda of the visits. The Israelis went so far as toinstall false control room panels and to brick over elevators and hallways that accessedcertain areas of the facility. The inspectors were able to report that there was no clearscientific research or civilian nuclear power program justifying such a large reactor –circumstantial evidence of the Israeli bomb program - but found no evidence of "weaponsrelated activities" such as the existence of a plutonium reprocessing plant.Although the United States government did not encourage or approve of the IsraeliAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 7. nuclear program, it also did nothing to stop it. Walworth Barbour, US ambassador toIsrael from 1961-73, the bomb programs crucial years, primarily saw his job as being toinsulate the President from facts which might compel him to act on the nuclear issue,alledgedly saying at one point that "The President did not send me there to give himproblems. He does not want to be told any bad news." After the 1967 war, Barbour evenput a stop to military attachés intelligence collection efforts around Dimona. Even whenBarbour did authorize forwarding information, as he did in 1966 when embassy stafflearned that Israel was beginning to put nuclear warheads in missiles, the messageseemed to disappear into the bureaucracy and was never acted upon.Nuclear Weapons ProductionIn early 1968, the CIA issued a report concluding that Israel had successfully startedproduction of nuclear weapons. This estimate, however, was based on an informalconversation between Carl Duckett, head of the CIAs Office of Science and Technology,and Edward Teller, father of the hydrogen bomb. Teller said that, based on conversationswith friends in the Israeli scientific and defense establishment, he had concluded thatIsrael was capable of building the bomb, and that the CIA should not wait for an Israelitest to make a final assessment because that test would never be carried out.CIA estimates of the Israeli arsenals size did not improve with time. In 1974, Duckettestimated that Israel had between ten and twenty nuclear weapons. The upper bound wasderived from CIA speculation regarding the number of possible Israeli targets, and notfrom any specific intelligence. Because this target list was presumed to be relatively static,this remained the official American estimate until the early 1980s.The actual size and composition of Israels nuclear stockpile is uncertain and the subjectAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 8. of many - often conflicting - estimates and reports. It is widely reported that Israel hadtwo bombs in 1967, and that Prime Minister Eshkol ordered them armed in Israels firstnuclear alert during the Six-Day War. It is also reported that, fearing defeat in theOctober 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Israelis assembled 13 twenty-kiloton atomic bombs.Israel could potentially have produced a few dozen nuclear warheads in the period 1970-1980, and is thought to have produced sufficient fissile material to build 100 to 200warheads by the mid-1990s. In 1986 descriptions and photographs of Israeli nuclearwarheads were published in the London Sunday Times of a purported underground bombfactory at the Dimona nuclear reactor. The photographs were taken by MordechaiVanunu, a dismissed Israeli nuclear technician. His information led some experts toconclude that Israel had a stockpile of 100 to 200 nuclear devices at that time.By the late 1990s the U.S. Intelligence Community estimated that Israel possessedbetween 75-130 weapons, based on production estimates. The stockpile would certainlyinclude warheads for mobile Jericho-1 and Jericho-2 missiles, as well as bombs forIsraeli aircraft, and may include other tactical nuclear weapons of various types. Somepublished estimates even claimed that Israel might have as many as 400 nuclear weaponsby the late 1990s. We believe these numbers are exaggerated, and that Israels nuclearweapons inventory may include less than 100 nuclear weapons. Stockpiled plutoniumcould be used to build additional weapons if so decided. “(1)So This will lead to the next Part which is what are the Current NuclearCapabilities of Israel :According to CDI (Center for defense information ) Israel Current Nuclear weaponsAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 9. “ Land-Based Strategic Weapons Jericho1 (Luz YA-1) SRBMThe Jericho I short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) was developed in the 1960s,reportedly with French assistance. Such aid was concurrent with French nuclear aid, inthe form of the Dimona nuclear reactor. This reactor produced the plutonium that wasused in Israels nuclear arsenal.The Jericho I was based on the French Dassault MD-600 design, and has the Israeli nameof "Luz." The missile is reported as having a 500 kilogram high-explosive warhead, butcould be fitted with nuclear warheads as well. It is unknown whether they are allocated tothis role. The Jericho is carried on a wheeled transporter erector vehicle (TEL) or onrailroad car launchers. It is believed that approximately a total of 100 Jericho I and IImissiles in the arsenal. Israel is reportedly trying to obtain technology to improve theaccuracy of the Jericho, as it currently lacks the components necessary for precisiongyroscopes and sensors. Jericho-2 (Luz YA-3) MRBMThe Jericho II improved greatly upon the performance of its predecessor. It wasdeveloped in the mid-1970s to early 1980s, with the first test flight in 1986. Unlike thesingle-stage Jericho I, the Jericho II has two stages, which allow for a greatly increasedrange of 1,500 kilometers as compared to the 500 kilometer range of the earlier model.Like its predecessor, the Jericho II is road mobile. In addition to inertial guidance, it mayhave some sort of terminal guidance as well to increase accuracy -- details are unknown.There also appears to be a South African connection. Unconfirmed reports suggest thatthere was significant South African funding for the Jericho II, and that the South AfricansAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 10. may even possess modified Jericho IIs under the designation "Arniston."The payload is reportedly double that of the Jericho I, at 1,000 kilograms, more thanenough to carry a nuclear weapon. It is not conclusively known whether the Israelis haveallocated nuclear weapons to the Jericho II, but it is extremely likely, given the greatrange, payload, and capability of the system.The Jericho II brings a dramatic increase in prompt delivery capability for the Israeliswith its long range. It is capable of hitting the entire panoply of targets in the MiddleEast (particularly Iran), as well as southwestern Russia. There is an even greater incipientcapability in Israels space launch program. The Jericho II and the Shavit (Comet) spacelaunch rocket are very similar. The Shavit launched the first Israeli satellite (Ofeq-1) intoorbit in September 1988. The Shavit could conceivably be modified and used to deliver anuclear weapon. Its mere existence means Israel is be capable of building an ICBM,though there appears to be no strategic imperative or political desire to do so.Air-Based Strategic Weapons F-4E-2000 PhantomThe Phantom (officially the Phantom II) was originally designed as a two-seat, two-engine, long-range all-weather attack fighter for American carriers. Initial developmentbegan in 1954, although its role was soon changed to that of a missile fighter. ThePhantom has had a long and distinguished history since the first F-4A flew in 1958, goingthrough various upgrades and variations and serving with several U.S. allies.The Israelis have the F-4E version, which was designed as a multi-role fighter capable ofair superiority, close air support, and interdiction missions. This version also has anAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 11. additional fuselage fuel cell for increased range, as well as the leading edge slatsdeveloped for the F-4F, which give the aircraft more maneuverability. More recentlythey have entered an upgrade for 50 F-4Es - and possibly the entire fleet -- known asPhantom 2000, which will extend the life of the aircraft beyond the year 2000. The firstaircraft completed modifications in 1989, which include reinforced skin and fuel cells,complete rewiring, and improved avionics, electronic countermeasures, and cockpitenhancements.Today, despite the Phantom 2000 modernization program, these aircraft are aging. Thenuclear bomb delivery role is more likely allocated to the more modern F-16s. However,given the F-4Es past nuclear mission, and the possibility of a continued role, they arelisted here. F-16 FalconThe F-16 Fighting Falcon has been a very successful American fighter, produced in greatnumbers (approximately 4,000 aircraft) and widely exported. The design goal was toproduce a capable but inexpensive multi-role fighter. The A and C versions are singleseat, while the B and D versions have two seats. The F-16 is a capable and flexible design,capable of high performance in both the air superiority and ground attack roles,depending on munitions. The flight controls are digital computer-controlled fly-by-wire,complemented by advanced navigation and avionics systems.Israeli F-16s have been extensively modified with Israeli equipment, as well as optionalU.S. equipment, particularly enhanced jamming and electronic countermeasuresequipment. Israel began accepting deliveries of the A-model starting in 1980, withdeliveries of the block 40 C-model starting in 1992. Israel also received an additional 50Abdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 12. older F-16s A/Bs in 1994 from U.S. surpluses. Israel has been the biggest export recipientt of the F-16. Given that the Falcon is probably the most capable Israeli attack aircraft, itwould likely be tasked with the delivery of nuclear munitions”(3)And also according to the Times “Israel has 150 nuclear weapons in its arsenal, formerPresident Jimmy Carter said, while arguing that the US should talk directly to Iran topersuade it to drop its nuclear ambitions.” (4)Ok then from the previous detailed data and Information about theIsraeli nuclear Program history and capabilities we will find thefollowing facts: 1. That the Israel ambitions to acquire Nuclear weapons started with the early beginnings of the Establishment of the State of Israel. 2.Old Imperial powers have helped these ambitions (France, UK, Germany). 3.There was a silence from The Super Power at the beginnings of the Development of the Program this silence transferred to assistance to the development Of Israel Nuclear power. 4.The History shows the fact that Israel was and is preventing any ambitions of any other Middle eastern Nuclear Bomb and the examples are very obvious like Bombing The Iraqi Nuclear reactor in 1981 and what followed that by assassinating the Egyptian Nuclear scientist Yehia El Mashad who was developing the Iraqi Nuclear Program . Also the Hitting of what was claimed to be the Syrian reactor in 2007. and finally The Israeli efforts to stop Iran from developing its Nuclear Program . The previous presentation answers the first two questions of the research which areAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 13. 1. How did the Israeli Nuclear Program start? 2. Is it a part of International Strategies for Security in the Middle East to give Israel A deter Force to have the Edge on other powers in the region? But this leads to the Third question which is why Israel is denying the existence of its Nuclear Program????? I have several answers and the real answer could be one or a combination of these answers : 1. It could have a legal aspect which it could be that the Jewish State doesn’t want to obligate itself with the International Framework of Nuclear prevention presented in the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty ). 2.It can be a speech act by Israel to test the real capabilities of its Rival neighbors and the enemies like Syria and Iran . 3.It could be a part of a strategy to put into effect the status co of the balance of power in the region after resolving the Palestinian Problem and achieving a peaceful coexistence with the Arab countries . 4.It could be a formula to deter Parties out of the region like India and Pakistan who have Nuclear capabilities . 5.It could be a cooperation strategy with the US to help both countries agenda in the region. 6.There is a possibility for Israel to apply the equation with Arab countries which is if they attack Israel with their chemical and biological weapons Israel will use its Nuclear weapons. Now answering the Two final questions of the research which are:Abdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 14. 1. To what extend this Program is affecting Peace and security in the Middle east? 2. What is the Israeli speech act towards any attempt of touching the issue “security of Israel” with regards to its Nuclear program? And here I quote from the Guardian“Israeli and American officials have admitted collaborating to deploy US-suppliedHarpoon cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads in Israels fleet of Dolphin-classsubmarines, giving the Middle Easts only nuclear power the ability to strike at any of itsArab neighbours.The unprecedented disclosure came as Israel announced that states harbouring terroristsare legitimate targets, responding to Syrias declaration of its right to self-defence shouldIsrael bomb its territory again.According to Israeli and Bush administration officials interviewed by the Los AngelesTimes, the sea-launch capability gives Israel the ability to target Iran more easily shouldthe Iranians develop their own nuclear weapons.Although it has been long suspected that Israel bought three German diesel-electricsubmarines with the specific aim of arming them with nuclear cruise missiles, theadmission that the two countries had collaborated in arming the fleet with a nuclear-capable weapons system is significant at a time of growing crisis between Israel and itsneighbours.According to the paper, the disclosure by two US officials is designed to discourageIsraels enemies from against launching an attack amid rapidly escalating tensions in theregion following a raid by Israeli jets on an alleged terrorist training camp near the SyrianAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 15. capital, Damascus.In a clear echo of the Bush doctrine of pre-emption, the Foreign Ministrys seniorspokesman, Gideon Meir, insisted: Israel views every state that is harbouring terroristorganisations and the leaders of those terrorist organisations who are attacking innocentcitizens of the state of Israel as legitimate targets out of self defence.The disclosure, is certain to complicate UN-led efforts to persuade Iran to make a fulldisclosure of its nuclear programme. It will also complicate the Bush administrationsefforts to reach out to moderate Arab states when they are pressing for an equaldisclosure of Israels nuclear weapons programme.Although Israel has long been known to possess nuclear weapons, in the past it hasabided by a deal struck with President Richard Nixon in 1969 that it would maintainambiguity about its retention of weapons in exchange for the US turning a blind eye.According to reliable estimates, Israel has around 200 nuclear warheads.It acquired the three Dolphin class submarines, which can remain at sea for a month, inthe late Nineties. They are equipped with six torpedo tubes suitable for the 21-inchtorpedoes that are normally used on most submarines.It had been understood they would carry a version of the Popeye Turbo cruise missilesbeing developed by Rafael Armament Development Authority of Israel.Israels seaborne nuclear doctrine is designed to place one submarine in the Persian Gulf, the other in the Mediterranean, with a third on standby. Secret test launches of the cruisemissile systems were understood to have been undertaken in May 2000 when Israelcarried out tests in the Indian Ocean.We tolerate nuclear weapons in Israel for the same reason we tolerate them in Britain andAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 16. France, one of the LA Times sources told the paper. We dont regard Israel as a threat.Despite the anonymity of the source, the sentiment is almost identical to that of the USUnder Secretary of State for Arms Control, John Bolton, who told British journalists lastweek that America was not interested in taking Israel to task for its continuingdevelopment of nuclear weapons because it was not a threat to the United States.Even if Bolton was not one of the sources for the story, his comments, coming on top ofthat of the two other sources, suggest the degree to which senior members of the Bushadministration can now not even be bothered to hide Americas assistance andencouragement for Israels nuclear programme.”(5) The previous presentation shows the Following facts: 1. Israel Military System in general and its Nuclear program in special is an official “offensive detterent weapon in which Israel has the Superiority in both quantative and qualatitive forces. 2. Following this that the basic idea of Israel movement inside or outside its borders is the main Idea in Israeli Strategic thinking which is the idea of “ Security of Israel” This idea that pushes different governments of Israel to do a speech act in which it ttakes offensive measures under the banner of that security . 3. This Speech act is presented “by two elements the first is To allow its Media leaders ,Journalists and analysts to talk in the media about that program ,the Second element is allowing the media to know some technical details about that Program” (6).Conclusions :Finally I found out the following conclusions from my research : 1. The idea of Security of Israel is keeping the Regime there under the idea of horrorAbdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 17. and fear this fear pushes the Israel to develop more military capabilities . 2. The strong ally between the US and Israel for obvious reasons like the Strong Jewish lobby in The US and the Strategic Alliance between the two countries will keep The US - with reference to the analysis of High politics – supports the idea of Security of Israel as parts of the US strategy in the Middle East to achieve the American goals in the region. 3. The current balance of Power in the region will enhance the idea of keeping the situation as it is or consequences will happen to any party will try to change the current equation and look to what is happening now with Iran .The previous conclusions were for the time being but there are strong possibilities andpredictions that the International System could be a multi polar in the long run(15-20years ) if we try to figure out that system we will find parties like China , Russia will becompeting with the US in the Military wing of power and these Parties will have militaryagenda in different regions of the World including the Middle East so this might changethe Dynamics of the Equation of power and might give bigger pieces of the cake ofSecurity in the Middle East but until then the main current idea is that each countryshould decide either to accept the current situation or move against the Internationalsuper power “The US” . ‫ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ـــ‬Abdelhamied El-Rafie
  • 18. Resources: 1. http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ 2. http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6107C282-595B-4BB8-8E18- 9073A5678B9D.htm 3. Israel Nuclear Delivery System , 4. http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/isnukes.html 4. May 26, 2008 Jimmy Carter says Israel had 150 nuclear weapons , http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4004300.ece 5. Israel deploys nuclear arms in submarines ,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/oct/12/israel1 6. Military magazine of King Khaled (source in Arabic), http://www.kkmaq.gov.sa/Detail.asp?InNewsItemID=129813Abdelhamied El-Rafie