Research
Publication Date: 19 July 2005                                                              ID Number: G00127755
...
TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 The Hype Cycle .......................................................................................
Table 2. Benefit Ratings ....................................................................................................
ANALYSIS

1.0 The Hype Cycle
Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through 2010. The dominant
trend...
2.0 On the Rise
2.1 Mobile Development
Definition: The creation, construction and deployment of applications on devices ot...
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: WinFX will be native to the Longhorn
operating system, which is expe...
Business Impact Areas: Significant mitigation of the risk posed by the globalization of
application delivery, respective c...
Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience.
Maturity: Emerging.
Example Vendors: Allen Systems Grou...
Example Vendors: ASG, Casewise, IDS Scheer, Mega International, Proforma, Telelogic and
Troux.
Recommended Reading:

     ...
Maturity: Emerging.
Example Vendors: The majority of software infrastructure providers.
Analysis by Yefim Natis

3.4 Proje...
3.6 SODA, Composite Applications and ISE
Definition: Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through ...
Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience.
Maturity: Adolescent.
Example Vendors: Advanced Inter...
Example Vendors: Codagen Technologies, Computer Associates International, IBM (Rational),
Interactive Objects, ObjectVentu...
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The hosted model is now accepted by
the organization because of loss...
Example Vendors: Compuware, Empirix, HyPerfomix, Mercury, IBM (Rational) and Segue
Software.
Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz
...
5.7 3D-Based Process Improvement
Definition: 3D-based process improvement follows a rational, results-based format of
orga...
Recommended Reading:

      •    "Magic Quadrant for Business Process Analysis, 2004"

      •    "How to Develop a BPA To...
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Most organizations test, but less than
25 percent of applications re...
Example Vendors: ActiveState, BEA Systems, IBM, Novell, Red Hat, Sun Microsystems and
Zend Technologies.
Analysis by Mark ...
Phase                   Definition
 Trough of               Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated ex...
Maturity Level           Status                                   Products/Vendors
 Obsolete                 Rarely used  ...
This research is part of a set of related research pieces. See "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special
Report for 2005" for an overv...
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Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005

  1. 1. Research Publication Date: 19 July 2005 ID Number: G00127755 Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005 Jim Duggan, Dale Vecchio, Daryl C. Plummer, Mark Driver, Yefim V. Natis, Matthew Hotle, Joseph Feiman, Greta A. James, Jim Sinur, Massimo Pezzini, Matt Light, Michael J. Blechar, Ray Valdes, Theresa Lanowitz Application development includes perfecting tools to speed up processes and improve application effectiveness. Future trends will include the growth of real-time enterprises and service-oriented application development. © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 The Hype Cycle ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 On the Rise.................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Mobile Development....................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Security at the Application Level .................................................................................... 5 2.3 WinFX ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Device Software Optimization ........................................................................................ 6 2.5 Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle ....................................... 6 2.6 Aspect-Oriented Software Development ........................................................................ 7 2.7 Metadata Repositories.................................................................................................... 7 2.8 CMMI-Based Process Improvement .............................................................................. 8 3.0 At the Peak .................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Enterprise Architecture Tools ......................................................................................... 8 3.2 Architected, Model-Driven SODA................................................................................... 9 3.3 Advanced Web Services for AD ..................................................................................... 9 3.4 Project Portfolio Management ...................................................................................... 10 3.5 BPM Suites................................................................................................................... 10 3.6 SODA, Composite Applications and ISE...................................................................... 11 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough .............................................................................................................. 11 4.1 Scriptless Testing ......................................................................................................... 11 4.2 BPM .............................................................................................................................. 11 4.3 Legacy Modernization .................................................................................................. 12 4.4 ARAD SODA ................................................................................................................ 12 4.5 Basic Web Services for AD .......................................................................................... 13 5.0 Climbing the Slope .................................................................................................................... 13 5.1 Enterprise SCCM.......................................................................................................... 13 5.2 Hosted Services Testing............................................................................................... 13 5.3 Open-Source Application Development Tools ............................................................. 14 5.4 Performance Testing .................................................................................................... 14 5.5 UML Methodologies...................................................................................................... 15 5.6 Business Rule Engines................................................................................................. 15 5.7 3D-Based Process Improvement ................................................................................. 16 5.8 BPA............................................................................................................................... 16 5.9 .NET-Managed Code.................................................................................................... 17 5.10 Agile Methodologies ................................................................................................... 17 6.0 Entering the Plateau .................................................................................................................. 17 6.1 Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing)............................................ 17 6.2 J2EE ............................................................................................................................. 18 6.3 Open-Source Programming Languages....................................................................... 18 7.0 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle..................................................................... 19 8.0 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels.................................... 19 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases ........................................................................................................... 19 Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 2 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  3. 3. Table 2. Benefit Ratings .................................................................................................................. 20 Table 3. Maturity Levels .................................................................................................................. 20 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005................................................................. 4 Figure 2. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2004............................................................... 19 Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 3 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  4. 4. ANALYSIS 1.0 The Hype Cycle Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through 2010. The dominant trends will include the evolution of the real-time enterprise (RTE), with its "need for speed," and growth in service-oriented development of applications (SODA). Together with the continuing search for ways to cut costs, the RTE and SODA will encourage the shift to service-oriented architectures (SOAs). Significant work is being done to leverage legacy systems through extension and modernization. Organizational turmoil will accompany shifts in skills and delivery models, and will require paying more attention to the quality and change processes within development. Business process analysis (BPA) and business rule engines (BREs) will enable cost reductions in the short term, but together they will yield greater return on investment (ROI) in the future. Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005 Advanced Web Services for AD visibility Project Portfolio Management Architected, Model- BPM Suites Driven SODA Enterprise Architecture Tools SODA, Composite Applications and ISE CMMI-Based Process Scriptless Testing Improvement Application Quality Ecosystem (was .NET- Automated Testing) Managed Metadata Code J2EE Repositories Business Rule BPA Aspect- Engines Open-Source Oriented BPM Programming Languages Collaborative Tools for the Software Agile Methodologies Software Development Legacy Modernization 3D-Based Process Improvement Development Life Cycle ARAD UML Methodologies SODA Performance Testing Basic Open-Source Application Development Tools Device Software Optimization Web WinFX Hosted Services Testing Security at the Application Level Services Mobile Development for AD Enterprise SCCM As of July 2005 Peak of Technology Trough of Plateau of Inflated Slope of Enlightenment Trigger Disillusionment Productivity Expectations maturity Plateau will be reached in: obsolete less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years before plateau Acronym key: AD application development ISE integrated service environment ARAD architected, rapid application development J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition BPA business process analysis SCCM software change and configuration management BPM business process management SODA service-oriented development of applications CMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration UML Unified Modeling Language Source: Gartner (July 2005) Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 4 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  5. 5. 2.0 On the Rise 2.1 Mobile Development Definition: The creation, construction and deployment of applications on devices other than a tethered system. Mobile development is manifested on a variety of devices. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Development organizations must augment the architectures of their established applications to include a mobile component where necessary. Business Impact Areas: Mobile development requires business justification and a clear return on investment (ROI). Mobile applications are largely disposable and are an enabling technology for agile businesses. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: Borland, Microsoft, Sybase and Syclo. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 2.2 Security at the Application Level Definition: Tools, frameworks and runtime software used to build and deploy next-generation software solutions. The focus of this technology includes a strong emphasis on Web clients, Extensible Markup Language (XML), Web services, mobile devices, data privacy and extended security models. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Application development (AD) and quality assurance organizations do not have the appropriate skills to deliver security at the application level. Tools delivering security content are crucial. Application security is critical to the success of other emerging and embryonic technologies. Business Impact Areas: Knowledge of a security defect is a critical preventative measure for the business. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: Compuware, Fortify Software, Klocwork, LogicLibrary, SPI Dynamics and Watchfire. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 2.3 WinFX Definition: A family of technologies made up of a user interface, messaging, file system and core .NET services native to the Longhorn operating system. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 5 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  6. 6. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: WinFX will be native to the Longhorn operating system, which is expected to be released in 2007. Microsoft has articulated its plans for WinFX; however, real-world use of the technology remains years away. Business Impact Areas: Next-generation operating system features and services tightly tied to software service models. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Less than 1 percent of target audience. Maturity: Embryonic. Example Vendors: Microsoft. Analysis by Mark Driver 2.4 Device Software Optimization Definition: Device software optimization enables companies to develop and run their device software faster and better, and provides a lower cost of development and delivery. It delivers more reliability to the user. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: By 2009, more than 14 billion devices will be connected and share information companywide. This level of connectivity delivers information from the user to the organization. Business Impact Areas: Device software optimization completes the supply chain and delivers connectivity to businesses in a way that has yet to be realized. New business models will emerge as a result of this connectivity. Benefit Rating: Transformational. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: Microsoft and Wind River. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 2.5 Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle Definition: Tools enabling communication and collaboration across cultural, geographical and professional boundaries through the entire application life cycle. These tools are spread across multiple tool markets. They are needed for all phases of application development (such as analysis, design, construction, testing and deployment), integration, maintenance and enhancement. They include features for enabling customer-to-developer understanding, support for multiple sites, federated control, remote monitoring, intellectual property and asset protection, and knowledge capture and transfer. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Application delivery globalization — where applications are built and maintained by teams working all over the world — is growing. This increases the risk of miscommunication and distortion, however. As globalization of application delivery accelerates, it raises priorities and expedience of technology vendors' efforts to address growing demand. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 6 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  7. 7. Business Impact Areas: Significant mitigation of the risk posed by the globalization of application delivery, respective cost savings and revenue provided by new applications because of collaborative and globally distributed efforts. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: CollabNet, Identify Software, iRise, Sofea and VA Software. Analysis by James Duggan, Joseph Feiman, Theresa Lanowitz and Matt Light 2.6 Aspect-Oriented Software Development Definition: Aspect-oriented programming (AOP) is a software development approach. It is supported by an emerging category of tools that enable programmers to modularize and manage cross-cutting concerns (issues in the program that cut across traditional module boundaries). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Although AOP has been around for years, it is only now being incorporated into mainstream toolsets and practices. Mainstream programmers have yet to hear about AOP in detail. Business Impact Areas: AOP eases the maintenance and enhancement of large, complex software systems, and speeds time-to-market for newly built systems. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: BEA Systems (AspectWerkz), IBM (AspectJ), JBoss AOP and Spring. Analysis by Ray Valdes 2.7 Metadata Repositories Definition: Metadata is an abstracted level of information regarding the characteristics of an artifact, such as its name, location, perceived importance, quality or value to the organization, and its relationship to other artifacts. Technologies called metadata repositories are used to document, manage and perform change impact analysis on metadata in the form of software assets. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Long-term market leaders have been slow to address new demands based on service-oriented architectures, and redesigned business process changes based on workflow and Web enablement. New vendors are evolving to provide the enterprise-class capabilities of long-term leaders. All will continue to converge during the next several years. Business Impact Areas: Metadata repository technology can be applied to almost any aspect of the enterprise architecture, including the portfolio management and cataloging of software services and companies; business models; data warehousing extraction, transformation and loading (ETL), and business intelligence (BI) transformations and queries; the data architecture; electronic data interchange (EDI); and outsourcing engagements. Benefit Rating: Moderate; improved processes; revenue increases or cost savings. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 7 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  8. 8. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: Allen Systems Group, Computer Associates International, Flashline and LogicLibrary. Analysis by Michael Blechar 2.8 CMMI-Based Process Improvement Definition: Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI)-based process improvement is the search for a number on the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI's) CMMI scale of process capability. It’s appropriate for software service providers because they compete based partially on their capabilities. For internal development organizations, however, the tendency is to follow CMMI as a cookbook or to look to it as a destination. Neither is appropriate. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Hype — driven primarily by penetration of the software services market — has led internal application development (AD) organizations to believe that getting a "score" is worthwhile. Organizations will realize, however, that they need methods and best practices, as well as the CMMI framework. Business Impact Areas: Improved cost structures derived from less rework; more consistent, on-time, on-budget delivery of software for all business areas. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Recommended Reading: • "Software Process Architecture Supports the AD Process" Analysis by Matt Hotle and Matt Light 3.0 At the Peak 3.1 Enterprise Architecture Tools Definition: Enterprise architecture tools organize information of interest. This information ranges from high-level business views to physical objects (such as servers). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: This market is experiencing strong growth, which is attracting increasing numbers of participants with some consolidation occurring. Vendors continue to expand tool capabilities. Business Impact Areas: Understanding the complex system of IT resources and its support of the business is a significant challenge. The assistance of a tool is essential to obtain an understanding of this system. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 8 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  9. 9. Example Vendors: ASG, Casewise, IDS Scheer, Mega International, Proforma, Telelogic and Troux. Recommended Reading: • "Magic Quadrant for Enterprise Architecture Tools, 4Q04" • "Vendor Details for the 4Q04 Enterprise Architecture Tool Magic Quadrant" Analysis by Greta James 3.2 Architected, Model-Driven SODA Definition: Architected, model-driven project approaches to service-oriented development of applications (SODA) are appropriate for applications, services and components that require robust analysis to understand business rules and requirements, and automate their design and delivery for maximum reuse and performance. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Business process automation, and Unified Modeling Language (UML) methodologies and best practices are still evolving to capture service-oriented business models and rules at a sufficient level of detail for integrated tools to automate or facilitate Enterprise JavaBeans (EJB) and C# components based on them. Business Impact Areas: Design tools, coupled with code generators, are used to ensure compliance with business and technical models and architectures, while providing productivity and quality improvements. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Embryonic. Example Vendors: Castek, Computer Associates International, IBM (Rational), The Innovation Group and TriReme International. Analysis by Michael Blechar 3.3 Advanced Web Services for AD Definition: Basic Web services with additional Web services standards (for example, WS-S and WS-R) to support a higher quality of service and business-to-business (B2B). The primary purpose of usage is software interoperability for enterprise and B2B server/server and client/server applications. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Advanced Web services standards develop slowly and are slow to generate unity among competing vendors. Most enterprise use of Web services for mission-critical systems draws enterprises to proprietary technologies and short-term solutions. Some of the quality-of-service issues, such as transactional integrity, require a fundamental rethinking of the requirements — still in its early stages. Business Impact Areas: When delivered, advanced Web services will permit mainstream deployment of standards-based mission-critical transaction processing over multienterprise networks. Benefit Rating: Transformational. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 9 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  10. 10. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: The majority of software infrastructure providers. Analysis by Yefim Natis 3.4 Project Portfolio Management Definition: A project portfolio management approach supporting organizational and procedural change and metrics collections through the use of project/resource management applications. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: There are many early, fragmented point processes. However, true adoption will be paced by training, practices, tools and information to facilitate near-real-time control. Business Impact Areas: Significant return on investment (ROI) for project-intensive organizations through improved planning, resource utilization, project change management and project communications. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: Business Engine, Microsoft, Niku, PlanView, Primavera and Systemcorp. Analysis by Matt Light 3.5 BPM Suites Definition: Strong agility features link traditional business process automation, business process management (BPM), business rule engines (BREs) and business activity monitoring (BAM) in an integrated fashion for round-trip engineering that supports continuous and instantaneous change and improvement. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPM suites with application templates are gaining recognition. Business Impact Areas: Enables a "jump start," similar to packages, but with more-dynamic, ongoing customization. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: FileNet and Pegasystems. Recommended Reading: • "Business Process Management Suites Will Be the 'Next Big Thing'" Analysis by Jim Sinur Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 10 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  11. 11. 3.6 SODA, Composite Applications and ISE Definition: Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through 2008 based on new methods and tools to do service-oriented development of applications (SODA) in support of service-oriented architectures (SOAs). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Summary of all aspects of SODA from the Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005. Business Impact Areas: Provides more cost-effective, flexible and responsive application solutions. Also has an effect on the build vs. buy decision. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: Borland, Compuware, IBM, Oracle and Microsoft. Analysis by Daryl Plummer 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough 4.1 Scriptless Testing Definition: Scriptless testing uses the skill sets of the subject matter expert and forces a life cycle approach to development. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The subject matter expert or business analyst's role is increasing in importance. Providing technology to automate this role is key. Business Impact Areas: The life cycle approach to developing and delivering applications demands quality check points at every juncture. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Example Vendors: Mercury, Parasoft, Software Development Technologies (SDT) and Worksoft. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 4.2 BPM Definition: Business process management (BPM) is an industry-coined term that defines a set of related technologies that help manage business processes and flow in an optimal manner, especially across traditional organizational and systems boundaries. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPM is an overcrowded market that is likely to see consolidation in late 2005, but it will be propelled by strong benefits and multiple buying centers. Business Impact Areas: Explicit processes reduce cost and risk, and enhance agility in response to business needs. Benefit Rating: High. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 11 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  12. 12. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: Advanced Internet Technologies (AIT), Insession Technologies, Singularity and Vision. Recommended Reading: • "Magic Quadrant for Pure-Play BPM, 2Q04" • "Creating a BPM and Workflow Automation Vendor Checklist" Analysis by Jim Sinur 4.3 Legacy Modernization Definition: The ability to transform an established application into a more-modern architecture (or language). Issues include language understanding, business rule extraction, code slicing and procedural to object wrapping or restructuring. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Legacy modernization tooling has been developed during the past decade, but it requires a commitment to process. Promises of evolution to new architectures have exceeded delivery, except for simple to moderately complex applications. Business Impact Areas: Leveraging assets in new forms eases technology transitions and improves the economics of development. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Example Vendors: Cast, IBM, Micro Focus and Relativity Technologies. Analysis by Dale Vecchio 4.4 ARAD SODA Definition: Architectural and design patterns are modified by the organization's technical architects to adhere to its architectural standards. All code involving the architecture is generated in applications in a compliant manner as part of the architected, rapid application development (ARAD) process. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Architectural standards continue to evolve. Technologies that can use these standards to generate Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE) and .NET code are emerging. Business Impact Areas: Design tools, coupled with code generators, are used to ensure compliance with business and technical models and architectures, while providing productivity and quality improvements. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Emerging. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 12 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  13. 13. Example Vendors: Codagen Technologies, Computer Associates International, IBM (Rational), Interactive Objects, ObjectVenture, Silver Leap Technologies, Sodifrance and Wyde. Analysis by Michael Blechar 4.5 Basic Web Services for AD Definition: These are service-style software modules that use core Web services standards for service definition and invocation (for example, Simple Object Access Protocol and Web Services Description Language). The primary purpose of usage is standard software interoperability for enterprise and business-to-business client/server applications. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Basic Web services are used widely and are supported by a large number of software tools. However, their simple quality-of-service support prevents their use for more-demanding and mission-critical transactions. This technology is approaching its plateau and will re-emerge with the advanced Web services products. Business Impact Areas: Basic Web services enable standards-based addressability and interoperability between software components across multienterprise networks. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Example Vendors: All software infrastructure vendors. Analysis by Yefim Natis 5.0 Climbing the Slope 5.1 Enterprise SCCM Definition: Integrated business process for software change and configuration management evolving to encompass a full range of change processes and governance. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Smaller vendors are completing offerings, but user readiness will slow the implementation of integrated business processes. Business Impact Areas: Explicit processes reduce cost and risk, and enhance agility in response to business needs. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: Computer Associates International, MKS, Serena Software and Telelogic. Analysis by James Duggan 5.2 Hosted Services Testing Definition: Hosted or managed services enable users to benefit from the intellectual capital of the provider to deliver technical capabilities not provided by the organization. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 13 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  14. 14. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The hosted model is now accepted by the organization because of loss of technical skill sets, the need to focus on core business competency, and the need to align IT and the business. Business Impact Areas: Quality assurance organizations must manage the service provider and deliver on the project. The technical skills are not a core part of the organization's business. Benefit Rating: Transformational. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Mature mainstream. Example Vendors: Compuware, Empirix, Mercury and Segue Software. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 5.3 Open-Source Application Development Tools Definition: Open-source tools for analyzing, designing, developing, testing and debugging programs. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Niche development tools have been around for years. Now, commercial vendors such as IBM, Sun Microsystems and ActiveState have added to these. In particular, IBM's Eclipse workbench framework and related plug-ins are gathering considerable momentum among mainstream developers and are driving open-source tools out of traditional niche markets. Business Impact Areas: General application development. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: ActiveState, Apache Software Foundation, Free Software Foundation, IBM (Eclipse), Sun Microsystems (NetBeans) and Zend Technologies. Analysis by Mark Driver 5.4 Performance Testing Definition: The ability to determine the degradation point or breaking point through tests. Critical information sharing across the life cycle aids in identifying performance issues. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Organizations have not yet realized the effect of performance testing to an application and, specifically, to the business. As new architectures emerge and more business is driven through the application, consistent performance will be mandatory. Business Impact Areas: Loss of business results from dissatisfied customers who use poorly performing applications. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 14 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  15. 15. Example Vendors: Compuware, Empirix, HyPerfomix, Mercury, IBM (Rational) and Segue Software. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 5.5 UML Methodologies Definition: The de facto standard for representing object-oriented designs. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) continues to develop to support a broader range of concepts with more consistency. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Version 2 of the standard splits support for UML methodologies. A period of instability will delay the broad adoption of extensions. Business Impact Areas: Improved specification languages close the gap between business requirements and executables. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience. Maturity: Embryonic. Example Vendors: Borland, Embarcadero Technologies, IBM and Telelogic. Analysis by Michael Blechar 5.6 Business Rule Engines Definition: Business rule engine is a Gartner term that defines the rule execution space where the rules are sufficiently accessible to less-technical integrators and developers. They support near-real-time business rule changes which provide agility. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Rules externalization is a behavior of all new technologies. They are showing up in hot spots in legacy applications. We expect that rules will play a stronger role in decision optimization as well. Business Impact Areas: Enables policy and rule agility in reactive modes and predefined scenarios in planning modes at the business and technical infrastructure levels in an organization. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Example Vendors: Computer Associates International, Corticon Technologies, Fair Isaac, Gensym, Haley Systems, Ilog and Pegasystems. Recommended Reading: • "Magic Quadrant for Business Rule Engines, 2005" • "How to Develop a List of Business Rule Engine Selection Requirements" Analysis by Jim Sinur Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 15 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  16. 16. 5.7 3D-Based Process Improvement Definition: 3D-based process improvement follows a rational, results-based format of organizational diagnosis, the development of a change package and the delivering of that package to the organization. It’s focused on outcomes, not "a score." It’s also focused on cultural and organizational change, rather than just processes. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Internal application development (AD) organizations have realized that outcome-based process improvement is valuable. The use of frameworks, such as Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI), combined with their own internal or off-the-shelf methods and best practices are a starting place. Most important, however, is the ability to combine standards and best practices with outcomes, rather than just following standards without regard to impact. Measures are common. They are based specifically on the targeted improvement area, not on a high-level return on investment (ROI) for moving from one level to the next. Business Impact Areas: Improved cost structures derived from less rework; more consistent, on-time, on-budget delivery of software for all business areas. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Recommended Reading: • "A '3-D' Approach to Software Process Improvement" • "Correct Diagnosis Is Crucial to a Successful SPI Effort" • "Developing the Change Package for Your SPI Effort" • "A Delivery Plan for Software Process Improvements" Analysis by Matt Hotle 5.8 BPA Definition: Business process analysis (BPA) is a Gartner term that defines the business modeling space where business professionals and IT designers collaborate on business process designs and architecture frameworks. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPA is more focused. Business process modeling is becoming a starting point for business process management (BPM) projects and compliance activities. Linkage to the BPM and business activity monitoring (BAM) markets is driving BPA into the mainstream. Business Impact Areas: Understanding complex business processes is a significant challenge. The assistance of a tool is essential to realize cost and time savings. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Example Vendors: Casewise, IBM, IDS Scheer, Mega, Proforma and Telelogic (Popkin). Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 16 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  17. 17. Recommended Reading: • "Magic Quadrant for Business Process Analysis, 2004" • "How to Develop a BPA Tool Selection Requirements List" Analysis by Jim Sinur 5.9 .NET-Managed Code Definition: A set of Microsoft software technologies for enabling software integration through the use of Web services. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: .NET is closing the technical gap with Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE). However, .NET introduces significant discontinuities among developers because they must learn new tools, best practices, development languages and architectural models. Business Impact Areas: Higher levels of reuse and productivity from service-based development. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Analysis by Mark Driver 5.10 Agile Methodologies Definition: Design-driven methodology for rapid, iterative development. The goals are risk reduction through the incremental discovery of requirements, minimized project overhead and architected, rapid application development (ARAD). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Agile methodology combinations are being perfected and best practices are being published. Business Impact Areas: The focus of development is on requirements with the highest perceived priorities to business. Accelerated development is by small increments. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience. Maturity: Adolescent. Example Vendors: Borland, IBM, Select Business Solutions and ThoughtWorks. Analysis by Matt Light 6.0 Entering the Plateau 6.1 Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing) Definition: Testing targeted in the preproduction phase of the application life cycle. Target audiences are test engineers responsible for black-box testing and traditional white-box testing. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 17 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  18. 18. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Most organizations test, but less than 25 percent of applications released to production have been thoroughly tested. The Application Quality Ecosystem identifies "test" as a quality area of the overall life cycle. Business Impact Areas: Catastrophic failures affecting revenue and overall competitiveness of an organization. Poor-quality applications can lead to business failure. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Mature mainstream. Example Vendors: Agitar Software, Borland, Compuware, Empirix, Keynote Systems, Mercury, Parasoft, IBM (Rational), Segue Software, Solstice Software, Telelogic and Worksoft. Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz 6.2 J2EE Definition: Sun Microsystems-sponsored architecture specification that prescribes application architecture for Java-based business applications. Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE) is implemented by multiple vendors as a J2EE application server combined with J2EE message- oriented middleware systems. Programming models of J2EE include Java Server Pages, servlets and Enterprise JavaBeans (EJB). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The technology risks associated with J2EE are diminishing. Skill sets among mainstream developers will reach critical mass within the next two years. Challenges remain in mechanics of production deployment. Business Impact Areas: Tools are needed to make Java feasible for the programming resources available to conservative IT organizations. Benefit Rating: High. Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Analysis by Mark Driver 6.3 Open-Source Programming Languages Definition: Open-source programming languages. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Useful and dependable programming languages that focus on pragmatic usability, rather than concept purity. Most of these languages — Perl, PHP and Python — are interpreted, dynamic script languages. They are used mainly for administration and Web development. Business Impact Areas: General application development and systems administration. Benefit Rating: Moderate. Market Penetration: More than 50 percent of target audience. Maturity: Early mainstream. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 18 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  19. 19. Example Vendors: ActiveState, BEA Systems, IBM, Novell, Red Hat, Sun Microsystems and Zend Technologies. Analysis by Mark Driver 7.0 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle Figure 2. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2004 Visibility Advanced Project Portfolio Web Services Management Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Aspect-Oriented Two to five years Software Development Five to 10 years BPM Suites More than 10 years Architected, Model-Driven SODA Swarm Metadata Intelligence Composite Management Applications J2EE Enterprise ARAD SODA SCCM BPM Agile Methodologies Automated Testing Legacy BPA Modernization Mobile Development Business Rule Engines UML Methodologies Collaborative Tools Basic Web Services for the Software Performance Testing Development Life .NET Managed Code Cycle WinFX Security at the Application Level As of June 2004 Technology Peak of Inflated Trough of Slope of Plateau of Trigger Expectations Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity Maturity Acronym Key ARAD architected, rapid application development J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition BPA business process analysis SCCM software change and configuration management BPM business process management SODA service-oriented development of applications BRE business rule engine UML Unified Modeling Language Source: Gartner (June 2004) 8.0 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases Phase Definition Technology A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates Trigger significant press and industry interest. Peak of Inflated During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well- Expectations publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers. Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 19 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  20. 20. Phase Definition Trough of Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly Disillusionment becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales. Slope of Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of Enlightenment organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. Plateau of The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and Productivity methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 30 percent of the technology's target audience has adopted or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau. Time to Plateau The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity. (Adoption Speed) Source: Gartner (June 2005) Table 2. Benefit Ratings Benefit Rating Definition Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics High Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical applications that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise Moderate Provides incremental, but significant, improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise Low Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings Source: Gartner (June 2005) Table 3. Maturity Levels Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors Embryonic In labs None Emerging Commercialization by vendors First generation Pilots and deployments by industry leaders High price Much customization Adolescent Maturing technology capabilities and process Second generation understanding Less customization Uptake beyond early adopters Early mainstream Proven technology Third generation Vendors, technology and adoption rapidly evolving More out of box Methodologies Mature Robust technology Several dominant vendors mainstream Not much evolution in vendors or technology Legacy Not appropriate for new developments Maintenance revenue Cost of migration constrains replacement focus Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 20 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  21. 21. Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors Obsolete Rarely used Used/resale market only Source: Gartner (June 2005) RECOMMENDED READING "Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2005" Acronym Key and Glossary Terms AD application development AIT Advanced Internet Technologies AOP aspect-oriented programming ARAD architected, rapid application development B2B business-to-business BAM business activity monitoring BI business intelligence BPA business process analysis BPM business process management BRE business rule engine CMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration EDI electronic data interchange EJB Enterprise JavaBeans ETL extraction, transformation and loading ISE integrated service environment J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition ROI return on investment RTE real-time enterprise SDT Advanced Internet Technologies SEI Software Engineering Institute SOA service-oriented architecture SODA service-oriented development of applications UML Unified Modeling Language XML Extensible Markup Language Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 21 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
  22. 22. This research is part of a set of related research pieces. See "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2005" for an overview. REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS Corporate Headquarters European Headquarters Asia/Pacific Headquarters Latin America Headquarters 56 Top Gallant Road Tamesis Level 7, 40 Miller Street Av. das Nações Unidas 12.551 Stamford, CT 06902-7700 The Glanty North Sydney 9 andar—WTC U.S.A. Egham New South Wales 2060 04578-903 São Paulo SP +1 203 964 0096 Surrey, TW20 9AW AUSTRALIA BRAZIL UNITED KINGDOM +61 2 9459 4600 +55 11 3443 1509 +44 1784 431611 Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 22 of 22 © 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

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