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Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir
 

Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir

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Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals

Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals

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    Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir Presentation Transcript

    • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Millennium Development Goals By Aabid Hussain Mir Department of environmental Studies North-Eastern Hill University Shillong.
    • ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly growing around the world… Water One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity. Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years Food Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years Timber Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population. Wood demand will double in next 50 years.
    • ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to provide certain services has been declining… Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Not Assessed Food-Fiber Production Water Quality Water Quantity Biodiversity Carbon Storage Increasing Decreasing Mixed Condition of Ecosystem Changing Capacity Key *Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI Ecosystem Type Services
    • What is Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)?  Largest assessment ever undertaken for the health of ecosystems.  Initiated by UN general secretary- Kofi Annan in 2000, authorized by governments through 4 conventions, launched in 2001 and completed in 2005.  A consortium of governments, non-profit groups, international agencies, universities, and businesses to conduct a global assessment of the Earth’s ecosystems, the services they provide and to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being.  Designed to meet the needs of stakeholders, including the business community, the health sector, nongovernmental organizations, and indigenous peoples.
    • The MA focuses on:  Ecosystem services  The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being  ecosystems intensively managed and modified by humans.  The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth
    •  Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries governed by a multi- stakeholder board drawn from the world of science, civil society, government and the private sector.  Information was synthesized from scientific literatures and relevant peer-reviewed datasets and models.  Incorporated knowledge held by the private sector, practitioners, local communities, and indigenous people.  Consists of interlinked assessments undertaken at local, watershed and regional scales, which fed into the global assessment.  There are 18 MA-approved sub-global assessments with an additional 15 of associated status.
    • The MA Board and design are reflective of a full spectrum of stakeholder groups: Private sector • MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development • Individual companies are represented by Board members • MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations Media and Public National and sub-national governments • ~180 governments have endorsed the MA through their participation in international conventions • Administrative authorities are also engaged as users at other levels International organizations • The MA was featured as a key action in the UN Secretary- General’s “Millennium Report”, April 2000 • The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001 • 13 international institutions are directly represented on the MA Board Local communities and civil society • Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will be incorporated in the MA • MA has been designed to meet some assessment needs of indigenous and local communities • MA will provide information to various news outlets, journals, etc. • Findings may become part of a public information campaign on ecosystems
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • • More land was converted to cropland since 1945 than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined • 25% of the world’s coral reefs were badly degraded or destroyed in the last several decades • 35% of mangrove area has been lost in this time • Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960 • Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960
    • Biogeochemical Cycles Since 1960:  Flows of biologically available nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems doubled  Flows of phosphorus tripled > 50% of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer ever used has been used since 1985 60% of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 has taken place since 1959 Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen Humans produce as much biologically available N as all natural pathways and this may grow a further 65% by 2050
    • Dal lake, Kashmir
    • Irreversible changes to species diversity The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more homogenous Humans have increased the species extinction rate by between 50 and 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty) 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Changes to ecosystems have provided substantial benefits Since 1960, while population doubled and economic activity increased 6-fold:  food production increased 2 ½ times; food production per capita has grown and food price has fallen  water use doubled  wood harvests for pulp and paper production tripled  timber production increased by more than half  installed hydropower capacity doubled
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Service Status Food crops  livestock  capture fisheries  aquaculture  wild foods  Fiber timber +/– cotton, silk +/– wood fuel  Genetic resources  Biochemicals, medicines  Water fresh water  Status of Provisioning Services
    • Status of Regulating and Cultural Services Status Regulating Services Air quality regulation  Climate regulation – global  Climate regulation – regional and local  Water regulation +/– Erosion regulation  Water purification and waste treatment  Disease regulation +/– Pest regulation  Pollination  Natural hazard regulation  Cultural Services Spiritual and religious values  Aesthetic values  Recreation and ecotourism +/–
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Species introductions and losses Regional climate change
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Level of poverty remains high and inequities are growing Economics and Human Development  1.1 billion people surviving on less than $1 per day of income.  During the 1990s, 21 countries experienced declines in their rankings in the Human Development Index Access to Ecosystem Services  An estimated 856 million people were undernourished in 2000– 2002, up 32 million from 1995–97  Per capita food production has declined in sub-Saharan Africa  Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved water supply, and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitation  Water scarcity affects roughly 1–2 billion people worldwide
    • Ecosystem services and poverty reduction Degradation of ecosystem services harms poor people  Half the urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases associated with inadequate water and sanitation  The declining state of capture fisheries is reducing an inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. Per capita fish consumption in developing countries, excluding China, declined between 1985 and 1997
    • Ecosystem services and poverty reduction Critical concern: Dryland systems  Lowest levels of human well-being  Only 8% of the world’s renewable water supply  Per capita water availability is two thirds of the level required for minimum levels of human well-being  Approximately 10–20% of drylands are degraded  Experienced the highest population growth rate in the 1990s  Cover 41% of Earth’s land surface and more than 2 billion people inhabit them
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Changes in direct drivers Habitat transformation: Further 10–20% of grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by 2050 Overexploitation, overfishing: Pressures continue to grow in all scenarios Invasive alien species: Spread continues to increase
    • Nutrient loading Global flux of nitrogen to coastal ecosystems will increase by a further 10–20% by 2030
    • Potential future impacts  By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally Net harmful impact on ecosystem services  The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2o C above preindustrial levels (medium certainty) Changes in direct drivers: Climate Change
    • MA Findings - Outline 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits  Degradation of Ecosystem Services  Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes  Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People 3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years 4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation
    • Responses – Importance of Indirect Drivers Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without actions that address one or more indirect drivers of change:  population change (including growth and migration)  change in economic activity (including economic growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns)  sociopolitical factors (including factors ranging from the presence of conflict to public participation in decision-making)  cultural factors  technological change Collectively these factors influence the level of production and consumption of ecosystem services and the sustainability of the production.
    •  Set of numerical and time-bound targets to measure achievements in human and social development.  Agreed by 192 countries and 23 international organizations to be achieved by 2015.  Adopted in 2000 in United Nation Millennium Declaration at the UN Summit.  Includes 21 targets and 60 indicators .
    • Goals
    • Goals and Targets Indicators for monitoring progress Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day 1. Proportion of population below $1 (PP) per day. 2. Poverty gap ratio. 3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people 1. Growth rate of GDP per person employed 2. Employment-to-population ratio 3. Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) per day 4. Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger 1. Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age 2. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption
    • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling 1. Net enrolment ratio in primary education 2. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary. 3. Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015 1. Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education. 2. Share of women in wage employment in the non- agricultural sector. 3. Proportion of seats held by women in national
    • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate 1. Under-five mortality rate 2. Infant mortality rate 3. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles Goal 5: Improve maternal health Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio 1. Maternal mortality ratio 2. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health 1. Contraceptive prevalence rate 2. Adolescent birth rate 3. Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits) 4. Unmet need for family planning
    • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS 1. HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years 2. Condom use at last high-risk sex 3. Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS 4. Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years Target 6.B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it 1. Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases 1. Incidence and death rates associated with malaria 2. Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide- treated bed nets 3. Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malarial drugs 4. Incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 5. Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course
    • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss 1. Proportion of land area covered by forest 2. CO2 emissions, total, per capita and per $1 GDP (PPP) 3. Consumption of ozone-depleting substances 4. Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological limits 5. Proportion of total water resources used 6. Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected 7. Proportion of species threatened with extinction Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation 8. Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source 9. Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers 10. Proportion of urban population living in slums.
    • Sanitation
    • G o a l 8 : D e v e l o p a g l o b a l p a r t n e r s h i p f o r d e v e l o p m e n t Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system. Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both nationally and internationally. Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries. Includes: tariff and quota free access for the least developed countries' exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the General Assembly) Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term. Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries. Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications
    • • As per the original framework adopted by India, there are 18 targets. • But Only 12 (Targets 1 to 11 and 18), which are relevant to India, are statistically monitored. • Corresponding to the 12 monitorable targets, India has adopted 35 of the 48 prescribed indicators (by United Nations) as relevant for statistical tracking.
    •  The poorest states in India (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh): • are among the most populous in the country, and • have among the worst MD indicators.  Owing to more rapid population growth, these states will account for an even larger share of India’s population in 2015.  Therefore, India’s attainment of MDGs will largely depend on the performance of these states.
    • 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Delhi Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya MizoramNagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Andaman & Nicobar Islands Chandigarh Dadra & Nagar Haveli Daman & Diu Lakshadweep Pondicherry India Poverty Head Count Ratio-States/UTs % 2004-05 level 2015-Projected level 2015-Target Level Source: CSO,INDIA
    • 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh India Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh MaharashtraManipur Meghalaya Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 live births 2008 level 2015 Projected level 2015 Target level Sourc CSO,INDI
    • Analysis has been at a highly aggregate level – typically the level of the country. This is meaningless in a large and heterogeneous country like India. The likelihood of attaining the MDGs hasn’t been usefully linked to the factors that influence MD indicators. This is necessary to address the question: what will it take to attain the MDGs?