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Latest Economic Trends - ARC's The Quarter

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Looks at a variety of economic indicators

Looks at a variety of economic indicators

Published in: Business, Technology

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  • 1. The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.
  • 2. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 ATL US Source: BLS Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average.
  • 3. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 ATL US Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average. Source: BLS
  • 4. Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013 Source: BLS 2100.0 2150.0 2200.0 2250.0 2300.0 2350.0 2400.0 2450.0 2500.0 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre-recession levels.
  • 5. Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013 Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre- recession levels. Source: BLS 2100.0 2150.0 2200.0 2250.0 2300.0 2350.0 2400.0 2450.0 2500.0 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 DEC ‘07: 2477.6 JUN ‘13: 2412.8
  • 6. Annual Percent Change: Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Overall, employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis. Wholesale Trade experienced slight decline in second quarter. Source: BLS -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13Professional/Business Information Finance Wholesale Trade -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
  • 7. Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Source: GA DOL Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13
  • 8. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels. Source: GA DOL
  • 9. Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta Source: SOCDS The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak, but it is rebounding. There were 2,804 residential permits issued in June of this year. In contrast, there were over 6,100 residential permits issued in June of 2006. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
  • 10. Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through June) Top 15 Metros Atlanta rises to the 4th highest in the nation in terms of residential permits issued into 2013. Permitting is still much lower compared to pre-recession levels, but these data indicate Atlanta’s resiliency in the midst of economic recovery. Source: SOCDS 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Las Vegas Chicago Philadelphia Boston Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Los Angeles Austin Miami Washington DC Atlanta Dallas New York Houston
  • 11. County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued 2011-2013 (2013 is Through June) All jurisdictions are seeing significantly higher permitting activity through June of 2013, with some jurisdictions already surpassing 2012 (entire year) figures. Fulton County has issued the most residential permits thus far in 2013, with the majority in the City of Atlanta. Source: SOCDS 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2011 2012 2013
  • 12. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter. Source: Case-Shiller Index 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
  • 13. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter. Source: Case-Shiller Index 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
  • 14. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Home Price Decline Since Peak Atlanta’s decline in home prices is at 22.6% since the peak, but the trend indicates improving conditions from last quarter. Denver and Dallas have completely recovered from the recession, showing home prices higher today that are higher than the previous, pre-Recession peak. Source: Case-Shiller Index -51.4% -41.7% -40.7% -39.3% -33.3% -30.1% -28.3% -27.9% -24.4% -24.3% -23.3% -22.9% -22.6% -26.4% -20.1% -18.6% -16.6% -11.2% 0.9% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% NV-Las Vegas FL-Miami AZ-Phoenix FL-Tampa MI-Detroit IL-Chicago CA-San Diego CA-Los Angeles Composite-20 MN-Minneapolis NY-New York CA-San Francisco GA-Atlanta DC-Washington WA-Seattle OR-Portland OH-Cleveland MA-Boston NC-Charlotte CO-Denver TX-Dallas 0.5% -10.7%
  • 15. Foreclosure Filings (Through June) 2010 – 2013 In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years. Source: Equity Depot 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 16. Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is continues to trend slightly downward. Source: CoStar 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20001Q 20002Q 20003Q 20004Q 20011Q 20012Q 20013Q 20014Q 20021Q 20022Q 20023Q 20024Q 20031Q 20032Q 20033Q 20034Q 20041Q 20042Q 20043Q 20044Q 20051Q 20052Q 20053Q 20054Q 20061Q 20062Q 20063Q 20064Q 20071Q 20072Q 20073Q 20074Q 20081Q 20082Q 20083Q 20084Q 20091Q 20092Q 20093Q 20094Q 20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q 20111Q 20112Q 20113Q 20114Q 20121Q 20122Q 20123Q 20124Q 20131Q 20132Q
  • 17. Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current There have now been nine consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however. Source: CoStar (3,000,000) (2,000,000) (1,000,000) 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
  • 18. Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta 2000 - current As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008. Source: CoStar 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500