Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta
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Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta

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Looks at employment trends by age cohort in metro Atlanta, focusing on the how the important demographic of the 25-34 year old age cohort has fared since the Great Recession.

Looks at employment trends by age cohort in metro Atlanta, focusing on the how the important demographic of the 25-34 year old age cohort has fared since the Great Recession.

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    Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta Presentation Transcript

    • Characteristics of the Young (Age 25-34) in the Workforce Atlanta Regional Commission Regional Snapshot: July 2013 For more information contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
    • National Unemployment Rates By Age Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 1980-Q01 1981-Q01 1982-Q01 1983-Q01 1984-Q01 1985-Q01 1986-Q01 1987-Q01 1988-Q01 1989-Q01 1990-Q01 1991-Q01 1992-Q01 1993-Q01 1994-Q01 1995-Q01 1996-Q01 1997-Q01 1998-Q01 1999-Q01 2000-Q01 2001-Q01 2002-Q01 2003-Q01 2004-Q01 2005-Q01 2006-Q01 2007-Q01 2008-Q01 2009-Q01 2010-Q01 2011-Q01 2012-Q01 2013-Q01 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Unemployment Unemployment rates for the young – here meaning those age 25 to 34 – have always been higher than those for older age cohorts. Although unemployment rates for the 25-34 group reached double-digits during the Great Recession, rates were never as high as they were during the recession of early 1980s, when many of the later boomers were hitting the job market for the first time.
    • Unemployment “Gap” for 25-34 Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Gap One way to determine whether the 25-34 age group is faring significantly worse than older cohorts is to calculate the difference between unemployment rates. This chart displays the difference, or “gap”, between unemployment rates for the 25-34 age group and the rate for those ages 35-64. The higher the value, the larger the gap. The gap rose dramatically during the Great Recession, with youth (25-34) unemployment rates almost three percentage points higher than other ages groups. Still, these gaps was significantly larger during the early 1980s recession, when many baby boomers were first hitting the job market. The good news is that during the last few quarters, the gap is as low as it has been since 2008. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1980-Q01 1981-Q01 1982-Q01 1983-Q01 1984-Q01 1985-Q01 1986-Q01 1987-Q01 1988-Q01 1989-Q01 1990-Q01 1991-Q01 1992-Q01 1993-Q01 1994-Q01 1995-Q01 1996-Q01 1997-Q01 1998-Q01 1999-Q01 2000-Q01 2001-Q01 2002-Q01 2003-Q01 2004-Q01 2005-Q01 2006-Q01 2007-Q01 2008-Q01 2009-Q01 2010-Q01 2011-Q01 2012-Q01 2013-Q01
    • Unemployment “Gap” for 25-34 Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Gap One way to determine whether the 25-34 age group is faring significantly worse than older cohorts is to calculate the difference between unemployment rates. This chart displays the difference, or “gap”, between unemployment rates for the 25-34 age group and the rate for those ages 35-64. The higher the value, the larger the gap. The gap rose dramatically during the Great Recession, with youth (25-34) unemployment rates almost three percentage points higher than other ages groups. Still, these gaps was significantly larger during the early 1980s recession, when many baby boomers were first hitting the job market. The good news is that during the last few quarters, the gap is as low as it has been since 2008. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1980-Q01 1981-Q01 1982-Q01 1983-Q01 1984-Q01 1985-Q01 1986-Q01 1987-Q01 1988-Q01 1989-Q01 1990-Q01 1991-Q01 1992-Q01 1993-Q01 1994-Q01 1995-Q01 1996-Q01 1997-Q01 1998-Q01 1999-Q01 2000-Q01 2001-Q01 2002-Q01 2003-Q01 2004-Q01 2005-Q01 2006-Q01 2007-Q01 2008-Q01 2009-Q01 2010-Q01 2011-Q01 2012-Q01 2013-Q01
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (National, all ages) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Force Participation Rates One puzzling trend over the past decade or so is the rapidly declining labor force participation rate (LFPR). The simple definition of LFPR is anyone between the ages of 16 and 65 who is working or wants to work is considered in the labor force. Of course, during the two recession we experienced during the 2000s, a lower LFPR is to be expected. But even as the economy has strengthened over the past couple of years, the LFPR is still mostly lower. Other than the wave of boomers now ready to retire, and the growing number of long-term employed who are no longer looking for work, there aren’t good explanations for this trend. A recent paper by the San Francisco FED explores some potential causes. Read it here. Link to study above: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/let ter/2013/el2013-14.html 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 Jan_1970 Apr_1971 Jul_1972 Oct_1973 Jan_1975 Apr_1976 Jul_1977 Oct_1978 Jan_1980 Apr_1981 Jul_1982 Oct_1983 Jan_1985 Apr_1986 Jul_1987 Oct_1988 Jan_1990 Apr_1991 Jul_1992 Oct_1993 Jan_1995 Apr_1996 Jul_1997 Oct_1998 Jan_2000 Apr_2001 Jul_2002 Oct_2003 Jan_2005 Apr_2006 Jul_2007 Oct_2008 Jan_2010 Apr_2011 Jul_2012
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (National, by age cohort) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Force Participation Rates Between 1970 and mid-1990s, labor force participation rates (LFPR) rose steadily, thanks mostly to more women entering the workforce. Those rates have dropped since 2000 for all age groups except those 55 and older. This could be having an effect on the ability of younger age cohorts to find work and stay in the labor force. While it is true that the older age cohorts are staying in the workforce longer, we still can’t explain the true meaning of this trend. Is it because those 55 and older are healthier and staying in the workforce longer while remaining productive? Or is it because those 55 and older WANT to retire, but can’t due to deteriorating economic conditions? A recent paper by the San Francisco FED explores these questions further. Read it here. Link to study above: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econ omics/letter/2013/el2013-14.html 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q01_1970 Q02_1971 Q03_1972 Q04_1973 Q01_1975 Q02_1976 Q03_1977 Q04_1978 Q01_1980 Q02_1981 Q03_1982 Q04_1983 Q01_1985 Q02_1986 Q03_1987 Q04_1988 Q01_1990 Q02_1991 Q03_1992 Q04_1993 Q01_1995 Q02_1996 Q03_1997 Q04_1998 Q01_2000 Q02_2001 Q03_2002 Q04_2003 Q01_2005 Q02_2006 Q03_2007 Q04_2008 Q01_2010 Q02_2011 Q03_2012 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
    • Unemployment “Gap” for 25-34 Age Group Labor Force Participation Rate The map shows the labor force participation rate (the percentage of those 25-34 who are actively seeking employment or already employed) for the 99 most populous metros in the U.S. Atlanta is in the second highest grouping (quintiles). This high participation rate (84.2%) is a good thing because that means people are optimistic about their prospects of getting job (or already have a job). Lower participation rates are generally associated with declining economic opportunities or an imbalance of skills required versus skills available. Source: 2011 American Community Survey Metro Atlanta
    • Source: 2011 American Community Survey Percent Employed AND in Labor Force The previous slide showed that metro Atlanta has a relatively high labor force participation rate for those age 25-34, which is a good thing. This map, however, shows that of those in the labor force, a relatively small percentage are actually employed (86.8%) in Atlanta. (It is in the lowest grouping, or quintile). One potential explanation for this disparity is that these data are from 2011, right when the job market began its turnaround, thus people were flooding back into the labor force in anticipation of improving job prospects. Another explanation could be that this age cohort is more likely to be enrolled in school AND looking for employment (or already employed). Thus they would be counted as in the labor force, but unemployed. Metro Atlanta has an abundance of higher educational opportunities. Metro Atlanta
    • Percentage Of Total Jobs Held By 25-34 Age Group Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Concentration of 25-34 Ages in Workforce This chart looks at EMPLOYMENT (not unemployment) and calculates the percentage of total jobs held by 25-34 year-olds for Atlanta and other selected metros. As the workforce ages and people stay in the workforce longer, it stands to reason that the percentage of the 25-34 age group would decline, as is shown in the chart. Among these selected metros, Atlanta had the highest percentage of 25-34 year olds in the workforce in 2000, but by 2012, metro Atlanta has the lowest.20.0% 21.0% 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 27.0% 28.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Atlanta Dallas Houston Chicago Minneapolis Charlotte
    • Percentage Of Total Jobs Held By 25-34 Age Group Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau 20.0% 21.0% 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 27.0% 28.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Atlanta Dallas Houston Chicago Minneapolis Charlotte Metro Atlanta, 2000 Metro Atlanta, 2012 Concentration of 25-34 Ages in Workforce This chart looks at EMPLOYMENT (not unemployment) and calculates the percentage of total jobs held by 25-34 year-olds for Atlanta and other selected metros. As the workforce ages and people stay in the workforce longer, it stands to reason that the percentage of the 25-34 age group would decline, as is shown in the chart. Among these selected metros, Atlanta had the highest percentage of 25-34 year olds in the workforce in 2000, but by 2012, metro Atlanta has the lowest.
    • Workforce Composition by Age, Metro Atlanta Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Changing Workforce Composition The pie charts show how the workforce has changed since 2000. The largest percentage-point increase was found in the 55 and older age cohorts. This cohort is the Baby Boom generation, and Boomers are staying in the workforce longer. Conversely, the largest percentage point decline was found in the 25-34 age group (27% of the workforce in 2000; 22% in 2012). It is also worth noting that the younger age cohorts, including those under 24 and between 35-44, all experienced a net decline between 2000 and 2012, in addition to declines in their respective share of the workforce. 310,040 14% 606,170 27% 611,535 28% 448,761 20% 233,025 11% 2000(Q1) 314,087 13% 559,132 24% 627,093 26% 525,398 22% 346,510 15% 2007(Q1) 233,657 11% 490,852 22% 550,118 25% 527,478 24% 391,398 18% 2012(Q1)
    • Total Employment in Metro Atlanta, Youth and Older Workers Total Employment Over the years, the total employment of young people (age 19 to 34) has been declining, with a nearly 19 percent decline of the number in the workforce. There was a dramatic drop after 2007, and that age cohort has yet to recover. Conversely, the employment of those 55 and older has been increasing steadily since the millennium. It has increased by 63 percent overall, but also increased during the Great Recession (2007-2010) 857,035 810,663 810,515 699,466 706,544 695,715 240,584 337,493 353,870 367,173 384,030 391,398 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 2000 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 Workers Age 55+
    • Comparison Of Population & Employment Growth Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Link Between Job and Population? To be sure, the 25 to 34 age cohort is not growing as fast as the population as a whole. Between 2000 and 2010, the 25-34 age cohort only increased 3.2 percent, whereas the total population increased by almost 25 percent during the same period. But despite the positive population (age 25-34) growth (although slow), this 25-34 year old workforce cohort experienced an almost 20 percent decline between 2000 and 2010. -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 25-34 total employment, Q2 25-34 Metro Atlanta Pop 25-34 Employment vs. 25-34 Population: Percent Change, 2000 - 2010
    • Comparison Of Population & Employment Growth Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Link Between Job and Population? The 35 to 44 age cohort has the same basic profile as does the 25- 34 year-olds – declining employment, but increasing population. In fact, all age groups experienced higher population growth than employment growth. This relationship of population growth to employment growth is a product of declining labor force participation rates across all ages. -19.60% -9.87% 13.47% 52.62% 3.19% 7.70% 36.83% 60.87% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55 and over Total Employment vs. Population: Percent Change, 2000-2010 Total Employment Population
    • What Sectors Attract the 25-34 Age Cohort Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Youth Employment Concentration Index This chart looks at which sectors the 25-34 age cohort tends to concentrate in. We take the total number of this cohort employed in a sector, then divide it by the total number employed in this sector. We do the same for the overall workforce, then develop a ratio where anything above one indicates a stronger concentration of 25-34 in these sectors than the workforce as a whole. For example, 10.2 percent of workers age 25-34 work in the “Food/Drinking Places” subsector. Overall, only 8.9 percent of the all workers work in the above sector. So, divide 10.5 by 9.2, and the ratio equals roughly 1.13, meaning that 25-34 year olds are 15 percent MORE LIKELY to work in the “Food/Drinking Places” subsector. Other popular sectors for this 25-34 cohort are “Professional, Science & Technical”, “Credit intermediation” and “Social Assistance.” Conversely, “Air Transportation” appears not to be an attractive employment option for this age cohort. 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 Youth (25-34) Employment Concentration Index
    • What Occupations Attract the 25-34 Age Cohort Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau Youth Occupation Concentration Index This is similar to the previous slide, but this looks at specific occupations that, for whatever reason, the 25-34 age cohort tends to cluster in. Same methodology applies – the higher the value, the greater the concentration of 25-34 year-olds in that occupation. For example, this age cohort is 32 percent more likely to have a “Life, physical and social science” occupation than the overall workforce. And this occupation pays pretty well ($63,470). Other popular occupations that pay above average wages include “Computer and mathematical”, “Arts, design, entertainment, sports and media”, “Healthcare practitioners and technical”, “Business and financial”, and, finally, “Architecture and engineering”. Occupation Youth Occupation Index Annual Mean Wage (in metro Atlanta, as of May 2012) Life, physical, and social science occupations 1.32 $ 63,470 Computer and mathematical occupations 1.29 $ 78,360 Healthcare support occupations 1.21 $ 28,190 Construction and extraction occupations 1.17 $ 40,390 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 1.16 $ 49,950 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 1.15 $ 73,720 Protective service occupations 1.13 $ 34,390 Food preparation and serving related occupations 1.10 $ 20,340 Education, training, and library occupations 1.09 $ 46,800 Business and financial operations occupations 1.08 $ 72,750 Architecture and engineering occupations 1.06 $ 75,490 Community and social service occupations 1.04 $ 45,220 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1.03 $ 43,430 Legal occupations 1.00 $ 104,310 Personal care and service occupations 0.98 $ 23,090 Office and administrative support occupations 0.96 $ 34,920 Production occupations 0.93 $ 32,030 Sales and related occupations 0.92 $ 39,920 Transportation and material moving occupations 0.90 $ 37,260 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 0.82 $ 24,840 Management occupations 0.78 $ 114,140 Average Wage for all occupations: $47,420