B.neupane september 27

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B.neupane september 27

  1. 1. ICT and Climate Change: Quo Vadis? Kathmandu Bhanu Neupane Program Manager ICT & Sciences and Open Access to Scientific Research UNESCO, Paris 1
  2. 2. What have we already learned?Concept of Green EconomyVarious ApplicationsA few tools for Green EconomyRole of YouthOther?.... 2
  3. 3. Whose view matters most?ExpertsYoursOURS or?THEIRS? 3
  4. 4. Marginalized people’s own view of povertyPowerlessness - Lack of voice - Lack of independence• The marginalized are subject to exploitation, humiliation and corruption• Powerlessness reinforces their inability to affect changes to their situation• Dependence on natural resource increasesStrategies must:• Start with poor people‟s realities• Build grassroots capacity to organize• Work towards changing social norm 4• Support social movements, innovation and leadership
  5. 5. Is there a positive correlation between poverty and environmental degradationYES: Poverty increases environmental degradation.Poverty raises the discount rate decreasing incentives to conserve withreduced NPV of future benefits.Examples of present value of $100 of future income: Discount Year Year Year Year Year Year rate: i 0 1 2 5 10 30 0 100 100 100 100 100 10 100 91 83 62 39 6 25 100 80 64 33 11 0.1 = 10¢Poverty:  increases risk aversion,  leads to ill health,  reduces capacity to invest ,  raises demand for children, (Berkley group: 2010) 5
  6. 6. Environmental Degradation and Poverty• Environmental degradation reduces the stock of natural capital and poor are disproportionately affected.• Environmental degradation increases vulnerability (e.g. soil erosion….decreased yields, deforestation…flooding).• Pollution increases morbidity and mortality (e.g. exposure to pesticides, contaminated water, indoor air pollution)• Deforestation and over-pumping increase the cost of basic goods such as firewood and drinking water 6• Erik Ekholm (losing grounds)
  7. 7. Sara Scherr 2000Although the relationship between povertyand environment is highly variable, the„downward spiral‟ is both avoidable andreversible in many circumstances. Poorpeople have an unrecognized potential foradaptation and innovation.” 7
  8. 8. Poverty need not be a source of resource degradation√ non-poor are the main source of degradation (big logging companies, livestock operations, over-consumption).√ Traditional technologies are conservation friendly (agro- ecology, agroforestry).√ Poor can adopt win-win technologies that raise incomes and increase conservation: ecoagriculture, ecotourism.√ Cooperation/collective action in the management of Common Property Resources.√ The poor can be environmental activists (Chipko movement in India, Chico Mendes rubber tappers in Brazil).√ Markets for environmental services induce conservation by the poor 8
  9. 9. OpinionA debate is healthyBlame-games are not! 9
  10. 10. First message: Humans are changing the global environmental system in a globally- significant waywithout….. adequate knowledge of the system and thus its response to change
  11. 11. Global change driversPopulation growth, movement and agestructuresGeo-political changes and realignmentsTrade and subsidies U.S. Bureau of the CensusTechnological changesClimate change
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  15. 15. Global change impacts • Global change is more than global climate variability/change • It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions • A constellation of changes, many global in domain For example, we see large changes in: Mackenzie et al (2002) (1990) Richards (1991), WRI Reid & Miller (1989)NOAA Vitousek (1994)
  16. 16. From: Steffen et al. 2004
  17. 17. Four noteworthy trends …1. The (continued) rise of the humans − Increases in people, wealth and intellectual resources (brain power), leading to a ….2. …. rise of demand ─ Increased demand for energy, food & natural resources resulting in accelerated ….3. … increasing climate change & environmental impacts4. … the rise of the machines (ICT). 17
  18. 18. Rise of MachinesWithin the context of climate change andgreen econmy Are ICT Evil? Are ICT victim? Are ICT good? 18
  19. 19. ICT as EVILGlobally approx 2-3 % energy consumption is linked toICT usageEnergy demand for ICT is increasing at steady pace ofapprox. 20%Moore‟s law is also applicable for ICT-linked GHGproductionPCs & peripherals, Telecoms infrastructureICT use is increasing and so are GHG emissions fromICT Other social and economic costs? 19
  20. 20. ICT as VictimOn an average 3 billion $ worth of ICTlinked infrastructures are damaged everyyear due to climate-linked phenomena. 20
  21. 21. ICT as solutionICT provides mitigation opportunitiesICT help in abating carbon emissionICT enhance efficiency & facilitateconservation 21
  22. 22. Mitigation opportunities1. Reducing GHG emissions from all stages of the ICT life cycle • and especially during their production, use and disposal2. Making greater using ICT to mitigate vegetation related emissions • through the greater use of ICT based earth observation and management systems and networks3. Encouraging the development and adoption of ICT based enabling technologies • to reduce GHG emissions. 22
  23. 23. ICT to abate carbon emission Reducing / substituting for travel  In 2007, Telstra held 7‟500 video conferences saving 4‟200 tonnes of CO2 Flexible work arrangements  Each one million EU workers could save one million tonnes of CO2 annually by telecommuting Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)  In-car systems to assist in “eco-driving” can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 20 per cent Dematerialization (replacing atoms with bits)  Publications on-line save hundreds of tonnes of paper and significantly reduces CO2 emissions annually compared with printing and distribution of paper copies 2 3Sources: Climate Risk report for Telstra, ETNO/WWF report, Toyota, ITU
  24. 24. ICT enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by :Process efficiency Doing things fast Use less energy  emit less CConnecting everything & everyone: Instrumenting objects and places around us: Empowering people to actMeasuring everything (& everyone!): The Internet of Things More info on energy use 24
  25. 25. ICT enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by:Controlling everything  Smart controls  Connect & control all motors & energy consumption (embedded controls)More options to reduce consumption: smartmotors, lighting, grid, buildings, logistics/transport & cities25
  26. 26. ICT and Climate Change Mitigation Strategy Adaptation (Causes) (Effects) Physical e-Enabled: Application Areas / CC Consumption -Carbon Markets Related Vulnerabilities-Dematerialisation of -Decision-Making -Socio-Polítical Goods/Services -Policy Networks -Livelihoods & FinanceJourney Substitution -Awareness/Capacity- -Health Building -Habitat Physical -Technology Transfer -Food (Agriculture) Production-Shift to Knowledge -WaterEconomyEnergy Generation & Distribution ICT Adaptation Role-Smart Power/Grid -Measuring Monitoring -Informing & Networking -Deciding: Energy Use -CC Data Capture •Predicting (Risk, EarlyManufacture & Use: Warning) -CC Data Processing-ICT (Green vs. •Planning (inc. Local -CC Data PresentationBrown IT) and Dissemination Mitigation)-Smart •Coping (Short-Term/ Disaster)Motors/Logistics •Adapting (Long-Term)-Smart Building -TransactingDesign -Producing-Smart Transport -Mobility
  27. 27. ICT and Climate Change Role of ICT ICT Intervention Focus  Initial/Generic Awareness of Climate ChangeClimate Change  Specific Awareness of Local Issues AWARENESS  Natural Resource-Oriented:Climate Change -Forest Management -Agriculture Management MITIGATION -Land Evaluation and Use  Capacity-Building OrientedClimate Change  External Data MONITORING  Local Data  Hybrid Local-External Systems  Vulnerability-Oriented:Climate Change -Food + Water Security ADAPTATION -Income Generation -Health -Infrastructure -Political Participation -Security  Climatic Threat-Oriented Ospina & Heeks (2012)
  28. 28. Let us look at some cool innovations?Digitization & The Internet of Thingsdematerialization (IOT)Microprocessors Sensor technologyHandhelds vs desk/lap Web 2.0 & 3.0tops Social networkingInternet diffusion Improved & greenerBroadband batteriesCloud computing GIS & visualizationCyber physical systems technologiesWireless & mobile device 28
  29. 29. But can we be complacent?Lets take an example!Water 29
  30. 30. Linking climate Change with Water Resources - Impacts?Intensification of hydrological cycle –increased floods and droughtsChanges to global distribution ofprecipitation – increased rainfall in highlatitudes, decreases in tropicsBut: Global Climate Models are very poor at representing hydrological systems Regional and local effects are highly uncertain Models provide grid-square average and don‟t provide a comprehensive picture of the system30
  31. 31. Water resources P I Es Eo E = I+T+Eo+Es T Stocks: first separation point Qs Q Ss (surface) F Qg Su (soil)second separation point C R Sw+g (waterbodies+ groundwater) P = rainfall R = percolation I = interception C = capillary rise Qs = overland flow Es = soil evaporation F = infiltration Qg = seepage T = transpiration Eo = open water evaporation
  32. 32. Lack of information and dataat a time when we need it more than ever to deal withincreasing complexity – where is ICT? GRDC: Current stations in historical database indicated by time series end
  33. 33. Lack of finer-scale measurements of water cycle components in the Third Pole Environment IPCC “… Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers.” (IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers, 20 Jan. 2010). There is a critical lack of knowledge for this unique environment, because, current estimates of the plateau water balance rely at best on sparse and scarce observations In-situ observation data cannot provide the required accuracy, spatial density and temporal frequency for quantification of impacts and development of adaptation and mitigation measures. 33
  34. 34. CURRENT36 FUTURE
  35. 35. So are we still at the square ONE?Quo Vadis ICT? 37
  36. 36. Let us now take ICT’s impact on poor people! 38
  37. 37. Assumption:ICT can help the marginalized• to make informed decisions• to better organise themselves• to communicate their interests• to break down their isolation and structures of discrimination• to support economic and social innovation that benefit them• ICT can improve the efficiency and responsiveness of groups that work with the marginalized 39
  38. 38. Engaging the marginalized: obstacles to overcome• Lack of access (infrastructure)• High cost of access (when available)• Lack of spare time and mobility• Lack of IT literacy• Lack of relevant content in vernacular languages• Lack of inclusive access models focused on the poor and marginalized 40
  39. 39. Engaging the marginalized: obstacles to overcome• Lack of enabling policies and strategies• Knowledge Infomediaries• Content Appropriateness• Multi-stakeholder Engagement• New and Traditional Knowledge• Focus on the Information Chain 41
  40. 40. Again are we still at the square ONE?Quo Vadis ICT? 42
  41. 41. UNESCO’s initiatives• Putting ICT in the hands of the poor• Develop innovative solutions for the marginalized, isolated and disadvantaged• Empower people living in poverty, especially women and youth• Develop replicable models through mixing and matching traditional and new media technologies• Assess impact and readjust the methodologies through action research• Use of Cyber physical systems• Open Data• Open Access to Scientific research• Open source softwares• Social networks (Possible future?) 43
  42. 42. Take Home Messages• Technology is only part of the solution.• Relevant innovation is driven locally.• Green economy doesn‟t mean to buy its way out of environmental problems.• Creating trust helps to secure the license to operate.• Anticipate risks that stem from outside the existing system. 44
  43. 43. In conclusion:You are a mass of 1.06 billion strong!You are most ICT educated and enabledmass (75% have access to mobile)Change will be possible ONLY when you aremobilized.My big boss Mr. Ban Ki Moon has thus said: “You have the opportunity to change our world. Seize it.” 45
  44. 44. Thank you~ b.neupane@unesco.org 46

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