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Asia pacific graduates youth forum on green economy


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  • 1. Global Change Adaptation and Green Economy Prof. Dr. Kedar Lal Shrestha Institute for Development and Innovation Nepal Presentation at Youth Capacity Building Workshop on Green Economy Goodwill Hotel Lalitpur, Nepal 25th – 29th September 2012
  • 2. Outline1. Introduction • Brown Economic Growth and Global Change • Sustainable Development & Human Well-being • Shift in Economic Paradigms and Green Economy2. Planning Adaptation Approaches • Science-driven Approach vs. Society Need-based Approach • New Progress in Science-driven Approaches • Development of Science Based Decision Support Tools3. Himalaya: The Asian Water Tower • Cryospheric Changes • Hydrological Impacts • Water Resource Governance
  • 3. Brown Economy Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably This is because the economic growth of recent decades has been mainly through drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to regenerate, and Through allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss.
  • 4. What is Global Change? • Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System • Much more than climate change U.S. Bureau of the Census • Socio-economic as well as biophysical Reid & Miller (1989) For example, changes in: NOAA• Atmosphere composition Richards (1991), WRI (1990)• Temperature• Population• Forest cover• Biodiversity… Nitrogen fixation Vitousek (1994) …….. Source: IGBP
  • 5. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment :Largest assessment of the health of Earth’s ecosystems Experts and Review Process  Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries  80-person independent board of review editors  Review comments from 850 experts and governments Governance  Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000  Authorized by governments through 4 conventions  Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, non- governmental organizations with a multi-stakeholder board of directors
  • 6. Ecosystem ServicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems
  • 7. Consequences of Ecosystem Change for HumanWell-being
  • 8. MA Framework Human Well-being and Indirect Drivers of Change Poverty Reduction  Demographic  Basic material for a good life  Economic (globalization, trade,  Health market and policy framework)  Good Social Relations  Sociopolitical (governance and  Security Human Indirect institutional framework)  Well-being Freedom of choice and action  Science and Technology Drivers  Cultural and Religious Direct Drivers of Change  Changes in land use Ecosystem  Species introduction or removal Direct  Technology adaptation and use Services  Drivers External inputs (e.g., irrigation)  Resource consumption  Climate change  Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
  • 9. Paradigm Shift Brown Economy Sustainable Development Human Well-being Green Economy
  • 10. Climate Change Adaptation Approaches in Two DirectionsNobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012
  • 11. Merits and LimitationsScience-driven approach:•projectionsneeded for proactive adaptation•but too complicated for local governments andcommunities.Society need-based approach:•effective for responses to “today’s problems” based onthe needs on the ground•but long-term CC risk may diffuse in the sea of problemsHow to incorporate the scientific results to the today’sdecision-making?What capacity is needed for this? Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012
  • 12. Components of Science ApproachGCMs(Climate Models)Downscaling1) Dynamic downscaling2) Statistical downscaling3) Direct calculationImpact models1) Models for physical impacts2) Measures for economic impacts3) How to incorporate the changes in society4) Effects of adaptionAssessing vulnerability and future risk Nobuo Mimura - Second International CCAdaptation planning Adaptation Conference 2012
  • 13. Global Awareness About Important Role ofMountains  UNCED 1992 : Chapter 13 in Agenda 21:  Rio Plus Five 1997 :  Mountains of the World: A Global Priority, and a companion policy document  Mountains of the World: Challenges for the 21st Century  UNCSD 1998 : Mountain Agenda  “Mountains of the World – Water Towers for the 21st Century”  MA 2005 : Mountain Ecosystem
  • 14. Hydrological and Climatological Significanceof Mountains  High Precipitation Levels due to Orographic Precipitation  Storage and Distribution of Water to the Lowlands  Snow and Ice Storage  Influence Atmospheric Circulations
  • 15. The third pole of the planet With snow and ice mass comparable to those on the poles•Extends east - west to over 2,400 km from 35oN, 74oE to 30oN, 95oE•All the mountains over 8,000 m are in and around it including Mt. Everest, the highest in the world
  • 16. The Himalayas•block and deflect air circulation• exert profound thermal and dynamical influence on regionalatmospheric circulation• play a significant role in the Asian monsoon system
  • 17. Asian Water Towerthe source of ten major river systems that together provide irrigation, power and drinking water for 1.3 billion people – over 20% of the world’s population.
  • 18. Glacier area (km2) 5,000 10,000 20,0000 15,000 25,000 2,566.2 4.3 21,192.7 35.3 9,011.5 15.0 14,019.8 23.335.50.1 1,351.8 2.3 Glacier Area percentage 234.6 0.4 1,659.9 2.8 137.4 0.2 2,310.3 Glacier area 3.8 7,534.6 Glacier area percent 12.50 10 30 50 20 40 Percentage (%)
  • 19. IGB General CharacteristicWestern Region (1, 2 & 3) Eastern Region (4 & 5)• high productivity – food surplus • low productivity – food deficit• high investment in infrastructure • poor infrastructure and low inputs of• major use of fertilisers and ground- fertilizer and water water for irrigation • high risk of flooding• in-migration of labour • out-migration of labour
  • 20. Himalayan Rivers SA - Annual Runoff (km3) 208, 17%510, 42% Indus 494, 41% Ganges Brahmaputra
  • 21. Himalayan Major River Basins Average Population Density (people per sq. km.) 450 401Average Population Density (people per 400 350 300 250 165 182 200 150 100 50 0 Indus Basin Ganges Brhmaputra Basin Basin River Basin
  • 22. Contributions of Major Rivers from Nepal toGanges Flow at Farraka  Karnali (Ghagra) 94,400 mcm 20.6 %  Gandaki 52,200 mcm 11.4 %  Koshi 68,340 mcm 14.9 % Total 214,940 mcm 46.9 % mcm: million cubic metre %: percentage of flow at Farraka
  • 23. Glacier Area and Volume from Nepal Himalaya and Indian Himalaya contributing to Ganges River System Source TERI
  • 24. Governance of Water Resources Major decision process concerning water is made outside ‘Water box’, the domain of water managers Full incorporation of major external drivers’ articulation, which at times can even be vague, will be essential to move towards sustainable development and use of water resources
  • 25. Challenges in Governance of Water Resources Many problems associated with governance than with the resource base Human dimensions often play crucial role Dealing with uncertainties and surprises associated with climate change and globalization
  • 26. Green Economy and SustainableHimalayan Mountain Development Recognizing the important role of Himalayan ecosystems and the services they provide, it requires greater attention  on livelihood issues faced by mountain communities, and  on maintaining/enhancing ecosystem services. Recognising upstream-downstream interdependency, there is a need to promote multi-stakeholder involvement in managing trans-boundary resources through  enhanced policies,  institutional structures,  funding mechanisms and  other necessary support systems