Bith Hong Ling


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Bith Hong Ling

  1. 1. 2009 Ridley Aqua-Feed <br />Australian Prawn Farmers Association Conference<br /> July 29-31, Townsville, Queensland<br />Japan's seafood consumption and the impact of the economic downturn<br />Bith-Hong Ling<br />Department of Marketing,<br />National Chung-HsingUnivesity<br />TAIWAN, ROC<br />29 July 2009<br /><br />
  2. 2. Outlines<br />Overview of Japan’s seafood consumption <br />Supply and demand <br />Distribution channels <br />Seafood expenditure: <br />by income, age, purchase of place<br />Seafood consumption trend<br />Recent economic downturn<br />Impacts on Japan’s seafood market<br />Changes in food consumption pattern<br />Changes in fishery import<br />Changes in import share and price by origin<br />Changes in seafood choice<br />
  3. 3. Domestic production and trade, 1970-2007<br />1,000 t.<br />
  4. 4. Seafood consumption, 1970-2007<br />1,000 t.<br />93%<br />88%<br />81%<br />70%<br />57%<br />51%<br />57%<br />61%<br />99%<br />2007<br />
  5. 5. What are supplied domestically?<br />Major fish production, 2000-08<br />1,000 t.<br />
  6. 6. What are supplied by foreign countries?<br />Imports of fishery products, 2008<br />
  7. 7. Seasonal consumption, 2007-08<br />Seasonal production: tuna(winter), mackerel(summer-autumn), squids(summer) <br />Occasion seasonal demand: New Year celebration (Dec-Jan.), Cherry Blossom season (April), Bon festival (mid-August) <br />
  8. 8. Distribution channels <br />General distribution system (6 step process)<br />Fish producers <br />Landing market wholesalers<br />Landing market brokers<br />Central market wholesalers<br />Intermediate wholesalers<br />Food services/retailers stores<br />Consumers<br />Direct sales system (3 step process)<br />Fish producers <br />Landing market wholesalers/trading company<br />Food services/retailers stores<br />Consumers<br />Source: Scuster and Kazunari (2001).<br />
  9. 9. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo<br />The world’s biggest fish wholesale market in the world<br />
  10. 10. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo: tuna<br />Checking quality before the tuna auction<br />
  11. 11. Tsukiji Fish Market in Tokyo: tuna<br />During the tuna auction<br />
  12. 12. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo: tuna<br />
  13. 13. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo: shrimp<br />
  14. 14. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo: shrimp<br />
  15. 15. Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo: shrimp<br />
  16. 16. Seafood expenditure: by purchase place <br />yen / month/household<br />(64%)<br />(65%)<br />(72%)<br />(58%)<br />Source: Japan’s National Consumption Survey FY 2005<br />
  17. 17. Seafood expenditure: by income<br />Fresh fish and shellfish accounting for 67% (5,224 yen) of monthly seafood spending, followed by salted and dried fish (14.8%, 1,150 yen).<br />Japan’s National Consumption Survey FY 2005<br />yen / month/household<br />household income group (10 thousand yen)<br />
  18. 18. Seafood expenditure: by age<br />The purchase of fresh fish and shellfish declined significantly among younger people (age under 40). Aging effect can be seen for people born between 1935and 1955 (age 50 to 69).<br />National Consumption Survey FY 2005<br />yen / month/household<br />age group <br />
  19. 19. Seafood consumption trend<br />2007 seafood consumption per capita in Japan had decreased back to the 1970 level (32kg per year), while meat consumption had increased steadily. <br />kg / year<br />
  20. 20. Seafood consumption trend<br />Source: “2005 Survey on Food Materials”, Japan Fisheries Association.<br />
  21. 21. In a recent economic downturn ….<br />GDP per capita, Japan <br />(in 2008 US$)<br />GDP growth rate, Japan<br />(%)<br />How has the Japan’s seafood market been changed under the recent economic downturn? <br />
  22. 22. Changes in food consumption pattern<br />The largest share of household food expenditure is still for seafood purchase, but its share is on the decreasing rate : a switch from seafood to meat. <br />yen / month<br />
  23. 23. Changes in fishery import<br />1,000 t<br />exchange rate: yen/per US$<br />million US$<br />unit price: US$/per kg<br />
  24. 24. Fishery imports (volume ), by type<br />1,000 m.t.<br />
  25. 25. Fishery imports (value), by type<br />million US$<br />
  26. 26. Fishery imports (value), by species<br />Value (million US$)<br />* fresh, chilled and frozen only<br />
  27. 27. Changes in import share and price <br />Vietnam and Indonesia largely dominated the Japan shrimp import market, but also strongly faced the export competition from Thailand, India and China. <br />Australia , focusing on premium prawns, received a steadily highest unit price. <br />Import share of shrimps (in volume)<br />Import price of shrimp<br />yen/year<br />yen/t<br />
  28. 28. Changes in seafood choice<br />Household reduced monthly expenditures on tuna (expensive fish) from 2708 to 1897 yen during 1998-08, while demand for salmon has been growing . <br />Consumption expenditure<br />(yen/per household)<br />Consumption amount <br />(g/per household)<br />yen/year<br />g/year<br />
  29. 29. Further empirical works<br />Building the multivariate empirical model: <br />to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of macroeconomic dynamics on the Japan’s seafood consumption trend.<br />to analyze how the movement of Japanese currency has influenced the price formation of major imported seafood (tunas and shrimp/prawns) in Japan.<br />