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9/9 FRI 9:30 | Adapting to Climate Change - Florida 1

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Charles Drake …

Charles Drake


This session will continue the discussion of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact in SE Florida. Understanding and preparing for climate change on a local level is among the most significant and timely sustainability issues facing Florida and its vulnerability to those impacts. The issues cross the social, built, and natural environments and the jurisdictional lines of local government. The session will further explore national and state policy and funding issues, as well as legal and organizational aspects of addressing climate change impacts.

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    • 1. Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 2.
    • 3. WATER BALANCE
      Water in = Water Out +/- Storage
      Precipitation + Groundwaterin + Surface Waterin = Evapotranspiration – Groundwaterout – Surface Waterout+/- Storage
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 4. WATER BALANCE
      On average, Florida receives around 50”/ yr of rain, with around 37”/ yr of ET
      This leaves approximately 13”/yr to recharge surface water and groundwater
      Any increase in ET will reduce the water available for recharge of groundwater
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 5. “Evaluating Sustainability of Future Water Demands Under Future Climate Change Scenarios”
      Commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council
      Conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc. in July 2010
      Further refinement and evaluation of work conducted by IPCC, USGS and others
      Provides projections of future available freshwater due to changing climate pattern
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 6. “Evaluating Sustainability of Future Water Demands Under Future Climate Change Scenarios”
      Report is not a prediction that water shortages will occur, but rather an indication of where they will occur
      This gives water managers opportunity manage supply and demand
      Florida’s water management districts prepare water supply plans on 20 year horizon with 5 year updates
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 7. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS
      GCMs are relied upon to provide plausible, physically based estimates of climate response to changes in boundary conditions and increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
      Many GCMs are in use and are included in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007)
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 8. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS
      The complexity of GCMs produce varied responses especially when precipitation is varied
      For impact studies, it is appropriate to use an ensemble of multiple models to represent a range of future conditions
      As with any mathematical model, there is no unique solution
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 9. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS
      For these simulations, a set of 16 GCMs were used for 21st century predictions
      Output from the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRPs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 was used
      GCM results were spatially downsized to regions resulting in 12km x 12km grid
      54,000 cells over 48 conterminous United States
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 10. MEAN CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE 2020-2039
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 11. Mean Changes in Temperature2040- 2059
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 12. Days with Peak Temperature >900 F
      (www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts)
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 13. IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES
      Increases in temperature are likely to cause decrease in precipitation due to increased evaporation
      Increased temperature results also in increased evapotranspiration (ET)
      Less precipitation and more ET results in less available water for recharge and available water
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 14. CHANGES IN PRECIPATION WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 2020-2039
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 15. CHANGES IN PRECIPATION 2040-2059 MEDIAN OF 16 GCMs
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 16. AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION 2040-2059 COMPARED TO 1934-2000
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 17. RISK TO AVAILABLE WATER SUPPLY WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 18. RISK TO WATER AVAILABILITY WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 19. CHANGES IN AVAILABLE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION
      Change due to change in ET
      Central Florida estimated to have >-5.0”/ yr
      South Florida estimated to have +0.0-5.0”/ yr
      Five inches less precipitation in Orange County is approximately 238,000,000 gallons per day
      1”/ square mile=17,378,560 gallons per square mile)
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 20. Sea Level Rise
      Rise in sea level will cause increase in saltwater intrusion
      Saltwater could move inland via rivers, canals, etc (at least up to control structures)
      Increased saltwater head pressure, due to density difference, will restrict/ hold back freshwater out flows of groundwater and surface water, elevation may not decrease as much
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 21.
    • 22. Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise
      As sea level rises, salt water will move inland through rivers and canals
      St. Johns River is predicted to increase in elevation, salt water will move inland
      Peace River discharges into Charlotte Harbor. Rising sea levels will push salt water into the estuary, changing the habitat
      This may also affect the surface water intake at the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 23.
    • 24.
    • 25.
    • 26.
    • 27.
    • 28. NORTHWEST FLORIDA
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 29. SWFWMD SWUCA
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 30. SWFWMD SWUCA GOALS
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
      Restore minimum levels to priority lakes in the Lake Wales Ridge
      Restore minimum flows to the upper Peace River
      Reduce the rate of saltwater intrusion in coastal Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties
      Ensure sufficient water supplies for all existing and projected reasonable-beneficial uses
      Protect investments of existing water use permittees
    • 31. CENTRAL FLORIDA WATER INITIATIVESJRWMD, SFWMD, SWFWMD
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
      Fresh groundwater withdrawals are limited to 650 million gallons per day
      No new fresh groundwater withdrawals are allowed beyond 2013; withdrawal is limited to permitted 2013 allocation
      Utilities must have alternative or supplemental water supplies on-line by 2013
      Due to reduction in groundwater withdrawals, the WMDs are discussing modification of existing WUPs to extend the date or quantity of water
    • 32. PROJECTED CHANGES IN UPPER FLORIDAN AQUIFER
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
    • 33. CONCLUSIONS TO PROJECTED WATER AVAILABILITY
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
      Results of median GCMs show increase in temperature and ET with corresponding decrease in available recharge
      Increase in sea level rise will cause inland movement of saltwater interface into surface water and groundwater
      This may cause increase in freshwater elevation but may be offset by increase ET
    • 34. CONCLUSIONS TO PROJECTED WATER AVAILABILITY
      Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011
      SWFWMD and SJRWMD have implemented recovery strategies and limits on fresh groundwater withdrawal
      NWFWMD and SRWMD are continuing investigation of declining groundwater supplies
      Reductions in fresh groundwater and surface water will drive the use of brackish groundwater and/ or ocean water desalination
      IMPACT ON WATER POLICY?
    • 35. Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association
      Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

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