9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 4


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Marshall Flynn

With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.

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  • SLOSH stands for Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes. It is a computerized model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes. • SLOSH is used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the exclusive benefit of NWS, US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and Emergency Management personnel. • There are several other storm surge models in use, including ADCIRC, however, SLOSH is the primary model used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and USACE. It is also the basis for Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES).
  • • This picture visually depicts the definition of a storm surge. • Storm surge is water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. • This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by 15 feet or more.
  • • The individual elements of the SLOSH grid are the basis for calculating water surface elevations caused by storm surge in a specific SLOSH basin. • The grid allows for barriers to flow, cuts in barriers, one dimensional flow in rivers and streams, and increased friction for trees and mangroves in certain grid blocks to be taken into consideration in the calculations. • Δs refers to the distance or length of each side of the grid element. • The transport points are the points at which flow enters and exits the cell. • The water depth is calculated based on the elevation of the grid cell and the amount of water that is able to flow into that cell. The water surface is found at the elevation of the water depth combined with the average ground elevation of the grid cell.
  • In this screen shot, only those points classified as ground are displayed. Note that these points are still symbolized by elevation, but a new ramp has been applied (in other words, the red in the bottom right hand corner isn’t the same height as the red points in the previous slide). From this filtered, bare-earth data, a digital terrain model is created.
  • From the filtered, bare-earth LiDAR data, a digital terrain model is created.
  • Remember that SLOSH is a coarse, grid based model. In this case, the grid are approximately 850 meters by 850 meters. For each grid, elevation points from the LiDAR are averaged, “roughness” is calculated from land cover, barriers, cuts, and flows are identified from topographic and bathymetric features.
  • 9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 4

    1. 1. GIS Coordination on a Statewide Scale using a Common Toolset Application Marshall Flynn IT/GIS Manager Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Pinellas Park, FL
    2. 2. Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Update Program <ul><li>GIS Technology Drives the Data & the Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Each Region on its Own in the Past </li></ul><ul><li>First Statewide Comprehensive Effort Like This Ever </li></ul><ul><li>Product is for State of Florida with Regions as Sections </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility, Structure, and Formatting are Key Elements </li></ul><ul><li>All ESRI 9.3+ with Spatial Analyst </li></ul><ul><li>Common Map Templates </li></ul><ul><li>Common Symbology </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>Evacuation Zones are the Product Used Most and Seen Most by the Public, and Used for Evacuation Transportation Modeling Component </li></ul><ul><li>Surge Zones are used as a basis to delineate those Evacuation Zones </li></ul><ul><li>Consistent Methodology and Data Essential (11 Regions = 1 State) </li></ul><ul><li>State Chose NHC SLOSH Model for Surge Inundation </li></ul><ul><li>SRES Program uses SIM* for Post-Processing Surge Zone Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation Zones Then Derived From Surge Zones by County EM Dept. </li></ul><ul><li>* Surge Inundation Model </li></ul>Tropical Storm System Surge Zone Component
    4. 4. Why is This Evacuation Update Such a Good Idea? <ul><li>Many Regions Have not Updated Their Evacuation Data for Years </li></ul><ul><li>Processing is 90% automated </li></ul><ul><li>Computers 6X Faster than last time (on average) </li></ul><ul><li>Available Base Data is so Much Better! </li></ul>
    5. 5. SRES Process Components Li ght D etection a nd R anging LiDAR S ea, L ake, O verland S urge from H urricanes SLOSH Models Regional Evacuation Studies Analyses Vulnerability Behavioral Demographics Transportation Storm Surge Zones Begun FY 06-07 Complete FY 09-10 Data Processing Development for SLOSH Begun FY 06-07 Complete FY 08-09 Begun FY 06-07 Complete FY 08-09 Contractors Contractors National Hurricane Center Regional Planning Councils Regional Planning Councils Begun FY 08-09 Complete FY 09-10 Begun FY 08-09 Complete FY 09-10 FY 09-10
    6. 6. What is SLOSH? • Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes • A computerized model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes.
    7. 7. What is Storm Surge? NAVD88 STORM SURGE is the increase in water level due to a storm (hurricane /tropical storm / high winds).
    8. 9. LAS Points From LIDAR (Bare Earth)
    9. 10. Converted to DEM (Larger Cell Size)
    10. 11. Contractor Processing for SLOSH Input at NHC
    11. 12. DEFINITIONS: STORM SURGE is the increase in water level due to a storm (hurricane / tropical storm / high winds). STORM TIDE is the total water level during a storm = Astro Tide + STORM SURGE + Rainfall Runoff + Anomaly
    12. 13. SLOSH Hurricane Storm Surge Model <ul><li>Solves shallow water equations </li></ul><ul><li>Orthogonal curvilinear grid system </li></ul><ul><li>2-dimensional (2 ½ dimensional ???) </li></ul>
    13. 14. SLOSH Hurricane Storm Surge Model <ul><li>Overland flooding </li></ul><ul><li>Sub-grid Features: </li></ul><ul><li>1-dimensional flow for rivers and streams </li></ul><ul><li>barriers </li></ul><ul><li>cuts between barriers </li></ul><ul><li>channel flow, with chokes and expansions </li></ul><ul><li>Increased friction for trees and mangroves </li></ul>
    14. 15. SLOSH Hurricane Storm Surge Model <ul><li>Embedded parametric hurricane wind model </li></ul><ul><li>Uses a normalized wind profile </li></ul><ul><li>Solves diff eqn for wind speed and direction (Direction is NOT specified a priori ) </li></ul><ul><li>Uses pressure, not observed wind speed </li></ul><ul><li>Forward speed incorporated into asymmetry </li></ul>
    15. 16. INPUT TO SLOSH TRACK Positions - latitude & longitude INTENSITY - (pressure drop) SIZE - Radius of maximum wind
    16. 17. SLOSH Hurricane Storm Surge Model <ul><li>Model output: </li></ul><ul><li>MOM’s and MEOW’s </li></ul><ul><li>Individual runs – in real time </li></ul><ul><li>Historical hurricane runs </li></ul><ul><li>Probabilistic surge forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Available in </li></ul><ul><li>SLOSH display format </li></ul><ul><li>GIS format (ArcView or MapInfo) </li></ul><ul><li>Animations (on web) </li></ul>
    17. 18. Previous SLOSH Basin (1991)
    18. 19. 2009 SLOSH Basin
    19. 20. <ul><li>Creating Surge Zones </li></ul><ul><li>Data needs to be processed fairly fast </li></ul><ul><li>Results should be relatively consistent </li></ul><ul><li>Some RPCs have not done surge models </li></ul><ul><li>Developed and proven methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Fairly easy to use </li></ul>SRES Phase II: Surge Zones & Evacuation Zones
    20. 21. Toolset Has its Origin in ArcView 3.2 Using Avenue (2005)
    21. 22. The New ArcGIS 9.3 Version Uses ArcObjects
    22. 23. SLOSH Display Program Category 4
    23. 24. This is not what the real world is like…… SLOSH grids actually much bigger Average Surge Height Average Surge Height Average Surge Height Average Surge Height
    24. 25. Spatial Analyst <ul><li>Works in Raster Format </li></ul><ul><li>Faster processing large numbers than vector </li></ul><ul><li>Readily converts back to vector </li></ul>
    25. 26. <ul><li>The previous slide demonstrates the surge heights (which are based on average elevation per grid) in MOM basin with square edges </li></ul><ul><li>We know that water does not behave like this </li></ul><ul><li>How do we get a realistic depiction of surge height with respect to the real terrain underneath? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interpolation of grid heights </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Creates a smooth surface for further topographical processing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The results allow a realistic depiction of inundation of terrain </li></ul>Modeling MOM Values into Realistic Surge
    26. 27. An area with SLOSH MOMs in their default square basin form. Circled area would be devoid of surge if not interpolated.
    27. 28. You can see how the interpolation hugs the terrain as in real life. That is what you are looking for.
    28. 29. Surge Model Inundation Category 4 (1 – 4)
    29. 30. <ul><li>Surge Model Toolset for GIS Processing </li></ul><ul><li>Updated High Resolution Elevation Data </li></ul><ul><li>Updated SLOSH Maximum of Maximum Data </li></ul><ul><li>Aerial Imagery (QA Checks for Data) </li></ul><ul><li>Water Feature Data for Surge Origination </li></ul>How Do We Get There? These Are Needed:
    30. 31. Shows the relief detail of Digital Elevation, if shaded and shadowed…
    31. 32. LIDAR Derived Shoreline From Contractors
    32. 33. LIDAR Derived Shoreline With NHD High Res
    33. 34. Why Water features are needed………..
    34. 35. Imagery Supports Water Flow Under Bridges, etc.
    35. 36. Water Polygons Allow Contiguous Selection Beyond
    36. 37. Contiguous Inundation No Longer Stopped
    37. 38. <ul><li>Water features do not Create Surge where there is none. </li></ul><ul><li>They merely allow Contiguous Selection further than Inundation Polygon stopped by Higher Elevation Structures Above Flow. </li></ul><ul><li>Bridges, Culverts, and Tunnels are Examples of These. </li></ul>Points to Consider:
    38. 39. The Result From a Surge Model Run:
    39. 40. <ul><li>Surge zone shapefiles from adjoining areas are merged to county level (if needed) </li></ul><ul><li>They are inspected for smooth transition and anomalies are corrected </li></ul><ul><li>Then they are inspected and edited to foster a smooth transition within the region </li></ul><ul><li>The files are used for Storm Tide Atlas and creating preliminary evacuation zones </li></ul>QA/QC and Regional Surge Clean-up
    40. 41. This is a case, generally where older surge covers less inland areas
    41. 42. Where the new surge goes further inland
    42. 43. This is not always the case, as in many areas of Pinellas County the newer surge Cat 1 (CHHA) covers less area…….
    43. 44. As you can see here….
    44. 45. Why is this? <ul><li>Most likely due to SLOSH basin resolution differences </li></ul><ul><li>Last basin used (1991) had larger grid cells, so less variation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SLOSH values are now derived from better topography changes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Elevation data this time is processed at a 5ft pixel size, which </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Has finer scale to catch topography changes (stopping surge) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Picks up more nuances like depressions, which divert flow away </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There is no hard-fast rule that says the new surge will always be greater at all category levels. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>That being said, it does appear that higher categories (4 & 5) have a greater chance at having more inundation </li></ul></ul>
    45. 46. DS MapBooks Was Used For Atlas Compilation
    46. 47. Page Detail:
    47. 48. Surge Zones Are Used For Evacuation Zone Choices How a County May Delineate the Evacuation Zones
    48. 49. Surge Boundaries with Parcel Boundaries
    49. 50. Selected Surge Zone………
    50. 51. Evac Zone Boundaries Brought Out to Road and Parcel Boundaries These would be removed
    51. 52. Useful Applications <ul><li>Surge Zones (Inundation Limits) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inundation Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evacuation Planning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Surge Depth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deterministic Evacuation Planning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential Damage Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PDRP </li></ul></ul>
    52. 53. Florida SRESP Volume 9 <ul><li>Based on Storm Tide Atlas </li></ul><ul><li>Category based display showing depth </li></ul><ul><li>Same metrics and scale </li></ul>
    53. 58. Thanks, and Have a Great Day! SRES Program 2007-2010 Florida