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FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

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Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Presidente do European Renewable Energy Council …

Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Presidente do European Renewable Energy Council

Conferência Internacional Europe Business - "Mais eficiência, Maior Competitividade em Portugal"

FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER promovido pela ANJE no dia 21 de novembro, na Alfândega do Porto

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance

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  • 1. Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 – Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes President Porto – 21 November 2013
  • 2. The United Voice of the Renewables Sector
  • 3. Some facts:
  • 4. Renewable Energies mature & beneficial • Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate Change  RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral • Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil Fuels  RE-technologies have high cost decreases  Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free • Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports  RES are domestic energy sources • Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply  Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature  A mix of different technologies and resources is available 4
  • 5. The future: 2050
  • 6. High RES in EU-“Energy Roadmap 2050” Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC
  • 7. Dominant RE-Shares in electricity sector Share of RES-E 100 % 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reference 18,7 33,3 40,5 40,9 40,3 CPI 19,8 34,5 43,7 47 48,8 Energy Efficiency 19,7 36,8 52,9 59,5 64,2 Diversified supply technologies 19,7 36,6 51,2 54,4 59,1 High RES 19,8 36,6 59,8 76,8 86,4 Delayed CCS 19,7 36,5 51,7 58,3 60,7 Low Nuclear 19,7 36,4 54,6 58,8 64,8
  • 8. Reducing import dependency Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC
  • 9. REthinking: 100% RE by 2050 RES overall RES-H RES-E RES-T
  • 10. Until 2050: Benefits of 100% RE >90% GHG-Reduction Total Investment: nearly 3,000 billion € Avoided fuel cost: more than 1,000 billion € More than 6 million jobs Source: EREC – REthinking 2050
  • 11. Today
  • 12. Annual Power Capacity Additions in the EU: 70% Renewables in 2012 Source: EWEA
  • 13. 13 percent The share of EU´s final energy consumption (23% RES-E, 15% RES-H, <5% in RES-T) 1/4 The amount that renewable energy contributes already to the EU´s 20% GHG reduction target 1.2 The number of jobs in the EU that already exist in the renewable energy sector million 130 billion The annual economic activity of the renewable energy industry
  • 14. 2020
  • 15. 2020 targets in Renewable Energy EU reached 12.5% RES in FEC already in 2010 = 1.8% above the indicative trajectory indicated in the NREAPs for 2011/2012 Source: Eurostat - European Commission “Statistical Pocketbook 2012”
  • 16. 21 MS in 2011 are above their Progress towards 2011/2012 interim targets Renewable Energy 2020-targets 6 MS in 2011 are below their (Status 2011) 2011/2012 interim targets (FR, UK, LU, LV, NL, MT) 2011 RES shares of the EU as a whole above 2011/2012 interim target
  • 17. AAGRs needed to achieve 2020 targets Source: EREC based on 2010 Eurostat data
  • 18. The EU is on track so far... RES Share in gross final energy consumption 25 actual overall RES share [%] 20 NREAP overall RES trajectory 15 10 minimum trajectory defined in the RES Directive 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 19. …with the transport sector below planned developments RES sector share in final sectoral energy consumption [%] 40,00 actual RES-E share 35,00 NREAP RES-E trajectory 30,00 25,00 actual RES-H share 20,00 NREAP RES-H trajectory 15,00 10,00 actual RES-T share 5,00 NREAP RES-T trajectory 0,00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 20. 2010-2011 Growth Rates vs. AAGR required to meet 2020 ambitions “In the heating & cooling sector in particular, it seems significant improvements in the policy framework are needed.” (COM SWD 2013 102 final) 10,00 8,00 “Current policies being insufficient to trigger the required renewable energy deployment in a majority of Member States.” (COM 2013 175 final) 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 Transport Electricity -2,00 Heat overall
  • 21. Meet the challenges and reap the benefits of renewables!  Global uptake of policies for renewables: decreasing European share in growing global market  Lack of policy certainty in Europe (policy changes in MS and ongoing uncertainty about post-2020)  Stable and reliable integrated climate and energy framework for 2030 needed – including ambitious and binding targets for GHG-emissions reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy.
  • 22. The next step: 2030
  • 23. Historic and projected growth „Clarity on long term policy is needed to ensure that the necessary investment is made.“ 100% 90% 80% COM (2012) 271 final “RES Strategy” 70% 60% BAU Roadmap 2050 (%) 50% Continued 2010-2020 growth post-2020 (%) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  • 24. May 2011 April 2013
  • 25. Clear signal for investors long-term predictability of market volumes and direction  decrease the costs of uncertainty  facilitating the achievement of the existing 2020 targets in the most efficient way
  • 26. Growing the economy Economic activity valued €137 billion
  • 27. Technology leadership reap benefits of first-mover advantage  global competition with China, U.S., South Korea or India  capitalise on exporting opportunities in growing global markets
  • 28. Replacing fossil fuel imports RES technology export instead of fossil fuel imports  550 Mtoe by 2030 (€350 billion)  equivalent to consumption of Belgium, Germany, Latvia, Poland, the UK and Spain
  • 29. Creating Jobs
  • 30. Which energy priority for 2043? Priorities now for the next 30 years:  fewer than one in ten Europeans think that unconventional fossil fuels should be prioritised  70% of Europeans think renewable energy sources should be the priority energy option  In all 27 MS, RES is the most mentioned priority for energy options in the next 30 years Source: Eurobarometer 360_2013