Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Price Surge in the Making? and Mortgage Rate Outlook - The Real Estate Report October/November
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Price Surge in the Making? and Mortgage Rate Outlook - The Real Estate Report October/November

240
views

Published on

The Real Estate Report October/November - Price Surge in the Making? and Mortgage Rate Outlook by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

The Real Estate Report October/November - Price Surge in the Making? and Mortgage Rate Outlook by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

Published in: Real Estate

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
240
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2012 Robb Fleischer American Marketing Systems, Inc. Inside This Issue 2800 Van Ness Avenue > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009 rfleischer@amsiemail.com > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4The Real Estate Report local market trends Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Sep 12 Aug 12 Sep 11 SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 241 229 192 Median Price: $670,000 $ 768,000 $672,500Price Surge in the Making? Av erage Price: $844,479 $1,001,306 $883,112 Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.5% 104.3% 100.3%Followers of the market report know inventory in With the economy as strong as it is here, think Day s on Market: 50 47 62San Francisco has been at or near record lows for Silicon Valley North setting up shop south of (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)the past year. Market, demand for homes is strong. Sep 12 Aug 12 Sep 11Inventory, or lack thereof, will be the determining With only a two months supply of properties on the Condo Sales: 248 298 183factor in appreciation. market, where will new inventory come from? Median Price: $705,000 $ 730,000 $598,199 San Francisco Price Differences There is no “massive shadow inventory”. Banks Av erage Price: $828,376 $ 813,011 $686,094 from January & Peak & Trough only own about one months worth of inventory. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.0% 101.1% 98.1% Hom es: detached Day s on Market: 50 54 83 YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough The only other explanation for low inventory is 3-month 17% -21% 20% Jun-07 Feb-12 homeowners who are underwater. Yet, underwater The median price for homes dipped 0.4% year- homeowners account for less than 10% of all over-year. There are two times a year when prices 12-month 4% -20% 5% Apr-08 Mar-12 homes with mortgages in the city. historically dip, in good markets or bad. The first is Hom es: attached 3-month 15% -9% 15% Jul-08 Jan-12 And, as you know, there is very little land for in January. The second is in August/September. development in the city. 12-month 7% -10% 7% Aug-08 Jan-12 SALES MOMENTUM…This has had a salubrious effect on prices. The Unless there’s a massive surge of retirees moving for homes rose one point to +9.3. For condos,median price for single-family, re-sale homes is up to Palm Springs, low inventory is here to stay. sales momentum gained 2.4 points to +14.3.17% year-to-date, while the median price for SEPTEMBER MARKET STATISTICS PRICING MOMENTUM…condos/townhomes is up 15%. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.2% continued moving upward in September, rising 0.4You can see in the table of price differences that from August, and were up 25.5% year-over-year. of a point to +1.9. The number for condos rose 1.7San Francisco prices did not drop anywhere near points to +4.5. Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory.as much as in other counties in the Bay Area. Infact, market lows weren’t reached until the There are only 537 homes for sale in the city. WE CALCULATE… That’s only two and a half months of supply! momentum by using a 12-month moving averagebeginning of this year! to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s 12-month moving average San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change to last year’s, we get a percentage 30.0% showing market momentum. 20.0% CONDO STATISTICS… 10.0% The median price for condos gained 17.9% year-over-year. Sales were up 0.0% 35.5% from last September. There are 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2 462 condos/lofts for sale, less than two months supply.-20.0% This is an tough market for buyers. Be-30.0% calm and realistic. If you don’t know-40.0% where to begin, give me a call. © 2012 rereport.com Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
  • 2. The Real Estate Report Mortgage Rate Outlook30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Oct 5, 2012 -- Even though some of the economic news climate... which in turn might temper growth. What to was a little warmer this week, mortgage rates contin- cheer for? Broad-based economic gains which take07-12 ued their downward drive. However, the decline this the Fed out of the picture, letting markets again dis-04-12 week was more muted than last weeks, and with the cover the true price of mortgages? Or to root for in-01-12 cumulative benefit of the Feds "QEternity" program terest rates to remain at artificially low levels, so that10-11 of purchasing Mortgage-Backed Securities closing in more homeowners can profitably refinance, or to see07-1104-11 on a quarter-percentage point, we may not have all home prices reflated though the inducement of af-01-11 that much room for rates yet to fall at the moment. fordability-driven sales?10-1007-10 HSH.coms broad-market mortgage tracker found the At some point, and for some time thereafter, we are04-10 overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages likely to see both. How long such conditions -- a ris-01-1010-09 declined by just two basis points (0.02%) to 3.68%, a ing economy with rock-bottom rates -- might last is07-09 new record low, while the FRMIs 15-year companion anyones guess at this point. The Fed has pledged to04-09 shed three basis points to land at a new record low of keep its foot on the gas even after the economy gets01-0910-08 an even 3%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs downshifted more fully underway, but that strikes us as a nervous07-08 by just a single basis basis point, as the most viable time in the markets, indeed.04-08 option for credit- or equity-impaired borrowers trickled01-08 It would appear that the decline in rates has sof- to a new low of 3.28%. Finally, the overall average10-07 tened, at least for the moment. When the Fed an-07-07 rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs held fast at 2.70% for a nounced its program, we reckoned it might have a04-07 third consecutive week, remaining at a record low.01-07 value of a quarter-percentage point on rates given10-06 The Feds program of manipulating mortgage prices current conditions, and well stand by that assess-07-06 is a two-edged sword, or at least a Catch-22. The ment for at least the moment. That being the case,04-0601-06 Fed wants to see more economic growth, so it push- and since much of that expected decline is now in 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% es mortgage rates down to help foster growth. If the place, well call for rates to be about unchanged next economy is improving or does start to improve, the week. Fed will need to do less to achieve its goals, and mortgage rates would tend to rise with the improving San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit SalesThe chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000s)tional monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250erage includes mortgages of allsizes, including conforming, $1,100 200"expanded conforming," and $900 150jumbo. $700 100 $500 50 $300 0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS 7 8 9 0 1 2 Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com September Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Unit Change from last yearChange from last m onth Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $ 670,000 $ 844,479 241 50 104.5% -0.4% -4.4% 25.5% -12.8% -15.7% 5.2% D1: Northw est $1,165,000 $1,386,682 11 42 102.9% 19.5% 10.5% -31.3% 8.4% -0.6% -35.3% D2: Central West $ 855,000 $ 851,011 19 35 105.8% 24.8% 25.1% -48.6% 14.2% 7.4% -48.6% D3: Southw est $ 635,000 $ 622,325 15 33 108.6% 33.7% 14.7% 15.4% 22.6% 7.7% -21.1% D4: Tw in Peaks $ 870,000 $1,035,659 22 29 107.4% 1.8% 3.3% 0.0% -20.5% -11.8% -15.4% D5: Central $1,390,000 $1,444,638 24 26 110.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.3% -1.8% -17.2% -29.4% D6: Central North $1,827,500 $1,827,500 2 52 93.8% n/a n/a n/a 31.0% 32.1% -33.3% D7: North $2,550,000 $3,958,333 3 11 121.9% 4.1% 21.0% -40.0% -40.8% -6.4% -25.0% D8: Northeast $1,765,000 $2,274,267 3 83 74.7% -49.4% -34.8% 50.0% 87.6% 141.7% 200.0% D9: Central East $ 829,000 $ 876,000 15 43 104.7% 21.9% 11.5% -21.1% 5.6% 10.2% -50.0%Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 490,000 $ 496,613 55 61 105.3% 8.6% 12.1% 0.0% -5.0% -2.3% -3.5%
  • 3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change30.0%20.0%10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2-20.0%-30.0% © 2011 rereport.comFORECLOSURE STATISTICSIn San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the investor, bids more than the banks opening bid, theforeclosure process, plunged 71% in August from the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goyear before. They were down 50% from July. back to the bank and become part of that banks REO inventory.Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion, and serve as the homeowners final notice before In August, cancellations were off 10.1% from July.sale, also took a nose-dive in August: down 76% year- Year-over-year, cancellations were down 16.8%.over-year, and off 61.1% from July. Properties going back-to-bank jumped 21.1% from July,After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are but were down 57.4% year-over-year.only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be The total number of properties that have had a notice ofcancelled for reasons that include a successful loan default filed decreased by 54.2% compared to last year.modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re- They were also down 24.2% from July.quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments, like bankruptcy. The total number of properties scheduled for sale de- clined by 30.8% year-over-year. Properties scheduledAlternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank (Continued on page 4)will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically anSan Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000s) $1,000 350 Table Definitions $900 300 _______________ $800 250 $700 200 Median Price The price at which 50% of pric- $600 150 es were higher and 50%were $500 100 lower. $400 50 $300 0 Average Price 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS Add all prices and divide by the 7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales. Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com SP/LP September Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price. Prices Unit Change from last yearChange from last m onth Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI San Francisco $ 705,000 $ 828,376 248 50 101.0% 17.9% 20.7% 35.5% -3.4% 1.9% -16.8% Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the D1: Northw est $ 697,000 $ 764,750 10 82 101.4% 30.3% 29.4% 11.1% -10.4% -2.3% -16.7% property for sale at the current D2: Central West $ 783,000 $ 959,333 3 67 99.0% 37.4% 68.3% 200.0% 5.8% 32.6% 0.0% rate of sales. D3: Southw est $ 325,000 $ 322,000 4 96 108.1% 18.6% 15.6% -33.3% 3.0% 1.7% -33.3% D4: Tw in Peaks $ 299,000 $ 299,000 1 85 100.0% 8.0% 8.0% -50.0% -34.9% -43.3% -75.0% Pend Property under contract to sell D5: Central $ 959,000 $ 985,614 35 41 103.2% 31.4% 37.4% 9.4% 12.2% 8.4% -10.3% that hasn’t closed escrow.D6: Central North $ 621,500 $ 624,958 30 48 105.9% -3.6% -1.0% 57.9% -22.6% -20.6% -11.8% D7: North $1,310,000 $1,268,733 15 23 105.1% 54.5% 37.8% 36.4% 62.7% 39.0% -42.3% Inven D8: Northeast $ 684,000 $1,038,727 33 51 99.8% 12.1% 30.8% -10.8% 9.4% 30.1% -52.9% Number of properties actively D9: Central East $ 732,500 $ 895,651 85 48 98.0% 26.8% 34.5% 32.8% 1.7% 3.8% -10.5% for sale as of the last day of the month. D10: Southeast $ 347,500 $ 342,167 6 91 106.4% 77.3% 74.6% 200.0% 16.2% 16.9% -25.0%
  • 4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco Robb Fleischer American Marketing Systems, Inc. 2800 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109Go online to see the full reportwith the district by district breakdown:HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum(Continued from page 3) 25.0for sale dropped 15.5% month-over- 20.0month. 15.0 10.0The number of properties owned by the 5.0banks fell 21.2% year-over-year. Banks 0.0now own about 520 properties in San -5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASFrancisco. At the current rate of sales, -10.0 7 8 9 0 1 2this is about a four weeks supply. Five -15.0to six months supply of total inventory -20.0signals a balanced market. -25.0 Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.comData supplied byhttp://foreclosureradar.com. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS -10.0 7 8 9 0 1 2 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.