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Mexico Milk and Dairy Products Market Outlook to 2015

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  • 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Report titled “Mexico Milk and Dairy Products Market Outlook to 2015” provides a comprehensiveanalysis of the milk and dairy products industry in Mexico.The report covers the total cow milk production, fluidmilk consumption, segmentation on the basis of dairy products such as butter, cheese, skim milk powder, milkdrinks and fermented products, cream, condensed milk and whey powder and volume of net trade for dairyproducts. It offers prevalent trends and developments in the industry, future opportunities and competitivelandscape of the prominent players operating in the country. The report also includes information on the majormacroeconomic indicators regressed for estimating the market for milk and dairy products in Mexico.Mexico is the 16th largest producer of cow milk, with the market share of 2% in the total world cow milkproduction of 587,446 thousand tonnes in 2009. The cow milk production in Mexico is little less than that ofNetherland, even though Mexico has almost 7 times the population of the Netherland. Mexico is the 10th largestimporter of dairy products in the world and has a small contribution in the exports of the dairy products.Mexico produced around 11,100 thousand tonnes of cow milk but consumed over 15,500 thousand tonnes,resulting in an imports of nearly 5,000 thousand tonnes of milk in 2009. Milk production in Mexico encompassesnearly 70% of the total volume of raw milk required to meet the domestic demand.The growth of cow milk production in Mexico is below the world average. Other counterparts of Mexico such asBrazil, Argentina and Chile have a much higher growth rates due to the higher growth in the number of dairycows and growth of the yield per cow. The average milk production per cow in Mexico was high (4,769 kg)relative to Brazil (1,289 kg) which is one of the largest producers in the region. The milk yield growth per cow(1.9%) is higher than the level in Brazil (1.8%) but below Argentina (3.0%) and relatively high compared to otherpeer countries in Latin America.Approximately 39.7% of the milk is consumed as fluid milk and while the rest is used for manufacturing of variousdairy products in 2009. The consumption of pasteurized milk and dairy products accounted for nearly 50% of thetotal consumption. Consumers prefer fluid milk which is perceived as a nourishing, healthier and low-pricedproduct relative to other dairy processed products.Increase in the personal disposable income of the people combined with the availability of more domestic rawmilk for processing of cheese has resulted in manifold incline in the production of cheese. The production waswitnessed at 225 thousand tonnes, an incline of 53.1% from the 2007 level of 147 thousand tonnes. There areseveral factors which are expected to influence the production level of 2010 such as consumers continuedpreference to consume inexpensive cheeses including yellow, panela and fresh cheese. Aged (yellow, chihuahuaand manchego) cheese production is projected to recuperate this year. The production of Mexican aged cheeseproduction will be supported by the increase in the consumers’ disposable income and is backed by the recentaddition of penalizing duties imposed on the imports of the US aged cheese. Additionally, incline in the demandwithin the restaurant sector will result in more production of cheese from commercial cheese processors.Milk drinks and fermented products such as yogurt market is the largest dairy products market in terms ofproduction. Though a large percentage of consumption is met by imports, the country will continue to channelizeresources in the domestic supply of the dairy products. Milk drinks and fermented products accounted for 44% ofthe total dairy products production in 2009.About 631 thousand tonnes of milk drinks and fermented productswere produced in Mexico in 2009. The production level has remained stable in the past. It is expected thatproduction will increase at an expected 6 year CAGR of 4.2% to 660 thousand tonnes by 2012 and to 807thousand tonnes by 2015. This expected increase in the production is largely due to the consumer preference forthe flavored milk drinks and yogurt dairy products.The market for condensed milk has expanded historically though at a slow pace. Condensed milk andevaporated milk (both sweetened and unsweetened) includes coffee milk but excludes specific baby milks. Theproduction level has remained consistent at 162 thousand tonnes from 2007 to 2009. The production is expectedto increase marginally in the future backed by the slow growth in the consumption. More producers have shifted 2
  • 2. their focus on other major dairy products such flavored milk drinks and yogurt segment relative to the condensedmilk segment.Consumers spend a nominal percentage of their annual dairy budget on whole milk powder. About 153 thousandtonnes of whole milk powder was consumed in Mexico in 2007. The consumption level though declined in 2008due to economic turmoil and decrease in the personal disposable income of the people, the demand for wholemilk powder increased in 2009 with the initial recovery in the industry. Fluctuating milk prices also played a majorrole in determining the expenditure on whole milk powder. The estimated demand for whole milk powder in 2010is 160 thousand tonnes, an incline of 6.0% over the previous year.Scope of ResearchThe report will entail thorough analysis and valuable insights on the milk and dairy products industry in Mexico.The scope of the report includes: • The total Mexican market of cow milk production and fluid milk consumption by volume, 2007 to 2015. • The Mexican milk cow numbers and milk production per cow, by volume, 2007 to 2015. • The Mexican dairy production by volume for butter, cheese, skim milk powder, milk drinks and fermented products, cream, condensed milk and whey powder, 2007 to 2015. • The Mexican dairy consumption by volume for butter, cheese, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, 2007 to 2015. • Current statistics and Projections of the various Macro Economic Indicators, 2009 to 2015 for Mexico. • Competitive Landscape of the major companies (Grupo Lala, Sigma Alimentos, Alpura and Liconsa), key trends and developments and future outlook of the milk and dairy products industry in Mexico. 3
  • 3. TABLE OF CONTENTS1. Mexico 1.1. Mexico Milk Market Introduction 1.1.1. Dairy Market Structure and Supply Chain in Mexico 1.1.2. Mexico Cow Milk Market Production and Fluid Milk Consumption by Volume, 2007-2015 1.1.3. Mexico Milk Cow Numbers and Milk Production per Cow, 2007-2015 1.2. Mexico Dairy Products Market Introduction 1.2.1. Mexico Dairy Products Market Production by Volume, 2007-2015 1.2.2. Mexico Dairy Product Market Production by Volume, 2007-2015 1.2.2.1. Butter 1.2.2.2. Cheese 1.2.2.3. Skim Milk Powder 1.2.2.4. Whole Milk Powder 1.2.2.5. Milk Drinks & Fermented Products 1.2.2.6. Cream 1.2.2.7. Condensed Milk 1.2.3. Mexico Dairy Product Market Consumption by Volume, 2007-2015 1.2.3.1. Butter 1.2.3.2. Cheese 1.2.3.3. Skim Milk Powder 1.2.3.4. Whole Milk Powder 1.2.4. Mexico Dairy Product Market Net Trade by Volume, 2007-2015 1.2.4.1. Butter 1.2.4.2. Cheese 1.2.4.3. Skim Milk Powder 1.2.4.4. Whole Milk Powder 1.3. Trends and Developments in Mexico Milk and Dairy Products Market 4
  • 4. 1.4. Competitive Landscape 1.5. Mexico Milk and Dairy Products Market Future Outlook 1.6. Mexico Macro Economic Indicators: Current and Projections 1.6.1. Population, 2007-2015 1.6.2. GDP, 2007-2015 1.6.3. Inflation, 2007-2015 1.6.4. Unemployment Rate as a % of Labour Force, 2007-2015 1.6.5. Demographic Distribution of Population on the basis of Age, 2009-20102. Appendix 2.1. Market Definition 2.2. Abbreviations 2.3. Research Methodology Data Collection Methods Approach 2.4. Disclaimer 5
  • 5. LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1: Popular Supply Chains in Mexico for 3 Dairy SystemsFigure 2: Mexico Cow Milk Production and Fluid Milk Consumption along withManufacturing Use and Exports by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 3: Mexico Milk Cow Numbers in Thousand Head and Milk Production per Cow inKilograms, 2007-2015Figure 4: Mexico Total Dairy Products Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 5: Mexico Butter Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 6: Mexico Cheese Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 7: Mexico Skim Milk Powder Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 8: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 9: Mexico Milk Drinks & Fermented Products Market Production by Volume inThousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 10: Mexico Cream Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 11: Mexico Condensed Milk Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 12: Mexico Butter Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 13: Mexico Cheese Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 14: Mexico Skim Milk Powder Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 15: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 16: Mexico Butter Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 17: Mexico Cheese Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Figure 18: Mexico Skim Milk Powder Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015 6
  • 6. Figure 19: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes,2007-2015Figure 20: Framework of future opportunities and key performance indicators of theMexican Milk and Dairy products marketFigure 21: Mexico Population Trend in Million, 2007-2015Figure 22: Mexico Gross Domestic Product in USD Billion, 2007-2015Figure 23: Mexico Inflation, Average Consumer Prices in Percentage, 2007-2015Figure 24: Mexico Unemployment Rate as a Percentage of Labour Force, 2007-2015LIST OF TABLESTable 1: Main Characteristics of Dairy Production Systems of Dairy Farming SystemsTable 2: Mexico Cow Milk Production and Fluid Milk Consumption along with ManufacturingUse and Exports by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015Table 3: Mexico Milk Cow Numbers in Thousand Head and Milk Production per Cow inKilograms, 2007-2015Table 4: New tariffs imposed in Mexico for cheese imported from the USTable 5: Competitive Landscape of Major Dairy Products Companies (Grupo Lala, SigmaAlimentos, Alpura, Liconsa) in MexicoTable 6: Demographic Distribution of Population in Mexico on the basis of Age and Gender,in Million, 2009-2010 7