Aug 31 Hugh Cox Presentation

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  • 1. Accommodation Scenarios and Costing•Enrolment Numbers Explained•Scenario Generation•Scenario Costing
  • 2. Enrolment Numbers• Average Daily Enrolment (ADE) represents the average of October and March enrolment numbers.• Full Time Equivalent (FTE) represents a measure of employed persons or students in a way that makes them comparable.• Students or Bodies simply represent the number of students that attend the school without consideration for the time invested.
  • 3. Scenario Generation Step 1 - An Iterative Process1. Where are the students?2. Where are the natural boundaries?3. Is there space?
  • 4. Scenario Generation Step 2 – Enrolment and Room Analysis1. Assemble the enrolment data for new boundary and sub boundary areas.2. Extrapolate enrolment projections for new boundaries.3. Roll projections into new scenario schools.4. Generate room requirements
  • 5. Scenario Generation Full Time ADE ADE Enrolment Analysis JK SK JK SK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE (FTE) Full Time Enrolment 09/10 0 0 2010/2011 0 0 2011/2012 0 0 2012/2013 0 0 2013/2014 0 0 2014/2015 0 0 2015/2016 0 0 2016/2017 0 0 2017/2018 0 0 2018/2019 0 0 2019/2020 0 0 2020/2021 0 0 2021/2022 0 0 2022/2023 0 0Scenario School Note: Regular Class Enrolments = SE Enrolments = ADE = Class Rooms Required ∆ Room Projection (Required-Current) Primary 1/2 day (ACS 20) Primary full day (ACS 23) Primary (ACS 20) Junior (ACS 26) Intermediate (ACS 26) SE (ACS 10) Current Current Current Available SE Available Available Primary Regular Class Room Analysis 1/2 Day Full Day Enrolment 09/10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010/2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2011/2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2012/2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2013/2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2014/2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2015/2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2016/2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2017/2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2018/2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2019/2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2020/2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2021/2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 2022/2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 Note: Assumes average class size for Junior classes at 26 - that may be high in four years
  • 6. Scenario Costing1. Establish assumptions2. Create base schools3. Generate revenue and expense for each of the base and scenario schools considering: – Operations – Renewal – Transportation – Administration – Teaching and Support Staff
  • 7. Scenario Costing Expanded Financial Impact Analysis Net Revenue - Expense Operations Renewal Transportation Administration Teaching Staff TRA Staff Net Result Net Result w/o Teacher Savings 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 See Note Expense Revenue Expense Revenue Incremental Expense Revenue Expense Revenue Expense Revenue (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) Savings (Loss) SavingsScenario 1Scenario 2 General Notes: •General, (brackets) indicate a net loss to the school board, values subject to adjustments in OTG/ADE. Calculations based on 09/10 OTG and Oct31 official enrolments. •Notes 1 thru 5 apply directly to unexpanded version of the Impact Analysis where a net result of the revenue-expense is shown instead of the individual expense and revenue values shown in this expanded version. •Note 6 applies to Expanded Impact Analysis only. 1. Operations loss indicates a savings to the MOE/Tax Payer but not the amount indicated. Operations impact considers the net change in the Operations Grant and change in Operations Expense. Operations Grant is based on a combination of OTG and ADE. Generally a reduction in OTG reduces Operations Grant. 2. Renewal savings considers the net difference between the renewal grant lost as a result of closing school(s) and capital cost avoidance of closing the same school(s). Renewal costs for single year is assumed as 10% of the Formal Facility Review Total Costs for each facility + 25% for fees, contingency issues, collateral damage and scope enhancement when projects are undertaken. This is consistent with previous years approach. Analysis does not take into consideration that there is no Renewal Funding generated for new space for the first 5 years after construction. 3. Transportation loss is 10% of the incremental cost increase provided to the ARC previously. This is due to the 90% funding of transportation by the MOE. 4. Administration reflects the net difference between Administration Expense and Funding. 5. Teaching/TRA Staff reflects the net difference between Staff Expense and Funding based on ADE. While Staff expenses may increase or decrease based on deployment of the Staff, funding to the board remains the same. For this reason revenue in neutral. 6. Demonstrated net result of option(s) with and without Teaching Staff Savings. While most scenarios generate Teaching Staff Savings, if we assume that the number of students remains constant board-wide and there is no decision to increase aggregate class size, the number of teaching staff would remain the same. Such Teaching Staff saved in these specific scenarios could then be redeployed system-wide to reduce the wide variation in class size where issues occur by school, by grade.