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TAG<br />the ammendolia group ltd.<br />A Demographic Overview and Projected Enrolment<br />Avon Maitland District School ...
Projecting School Enrolment<br />Enrolment projections are dependant on a variety of demographic, social and economic fact...
 Immigration and migration
 Economic upswings or downturns
 Housing development and affordability
 Provincial policies</li></ul>Can all affect enrolment for a school board.<br />To understand future enrolment trends for ...
Population Trends<br />The National Perspective<br /><ul><li>The Canadian population grew more rapidly between 2001 and 20...
Canada had a higher rate of growth from 2001 and 2006 than any other of the G8 countries.
 About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to...
Alberta and Ontario were responsible for more than 2/3’s of Canada’s population growth.</li></ul>While the country continu...
Ontario<br />The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.<br /><ul><li>The Province grew by more than t...
 This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth.<...
Ontario and School Aged Population Trends<br />
Ontario  Highlights<br />After more than a decade of declines in the pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of Ont...
Ontario  - What To Expect?<br />Ontario-wide births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a...
Cautious Optimism<br />Recent demographic and socio-economic trends, combined with robust growth forecasts for the Provinc...
THE AVON MAITLAND DSB<br />After a decline in 2002, births have been increasing.<br />The pre-school and school aged popul...
Enrolment Projection Indicators<br />Demographic and certain socio-economic characteristics have a significant impact on f...
Junior Kindergarten Participation Rates<br />The JK grade or entry year into school systems plays an important role in det...
Grade Structure Ratio<br />The grade structure ratio is a comparison of senior elementary students (grade 6-8) to junior e...
Secondary Factors<br />The retention of a board’s grade 8 students into grade 9 can have a significant impact on secondary...
Enrolment Share and Participation Rates<br />The participation share of the population and the share of enrolment between ...
Enrolment From New Housing Development<br />The projection of new housing growth has a significant impact on projected enr...
68% of future units are expected to be built in Perth County and 32% in Huron County.
The new housing units are expected to generate almost 1,150 new elementary students and more than 550 new secondary studen...
RA01 – Stratford, Parts Perth East & Perth South(Anne Hathaway, Avon, Bedford, Downie, Hamlet, Easthope, Romeo, Shakespear...
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AMDSB Enrolment Projections Presentation_2011

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Enrolment and Population Trends - Huron and Perth Counties presented by The Ammendolia Group.

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Transcript of "AMDSB Enrolment Projections Presentation_2011"

  1. 1. TAG<br />the ammendolia group ltd.<br />A Demographic Overview and Projected Enrolment<br />Avon Maitland District School Board<br />Tuesday, March 22, 2011<br />Presented By:<br />Jack Ammendolia, Director<br />The Ammendolia Group Ltd.<br />
  2. 2. Projecting School Enrolment<br />Enrolment projections are dependant on a variety of demographic, social and economic factors on a national, provincial and local scale.<br />Things like;<br /><ul><li> Birth trends
  3. 3. Immigration and migration
  4. 4. Economic upswings or downturns
  5. 5. Housing development and affordability
  6. 6. Provincial policies</li></ul>Can all affect enrolment for a school board.<br />To understand future enrolment trends for your school board and put them in perspective, it is helpful to understand national and provincial population trends. <br />
  7. 7. Population Trends<br />The National Perspective<br /><ul><li>The Canadian population grew more rapidly between 2001 and 2006 than the previous census period (5.4% compared with 4%).
  8. 8. Canada had a higher rate of growth from 2001 and 2006 than any other of the G8 countries.
  9. 9. About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase.
  10. 10. Alberta and Ontario were responsible for more than 2/3’s of Canada’s population growth.</li></ul>While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of school aged children dropped to 5.2 million in 2005-06, down 3% from 1999.<br />
  11. 11. Ontario<br />The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.<br /><ul><li>The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it has for more than a decade.
  12. 12. This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth.</li></ul>Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006, 600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.<br />
  13. 13. Ontario and School Aged Population Trends<br />
  14. 14. Ontario Highlights<br />After more than a decade of declines in the pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of Ontario experienced a slight increase of just over 1% or approximately 6,000 0-3 year olds from 2001-2006, according to the 2006 Census.<br />The elementary aged population experienced a decline of -2.6% from 2001-2006, while the secondary aged population increased by 8% over the same time period.<br />Larger grade cohorts in the senior elementary grades continue to age and move to secondary and are being replaced by significantly smaller cohorts – accounting for the declines in the elementary population and increases in the secondary. <br />In the short to mid term, historical elementary declines will begin to impact secondary enrolment.<br />
  15. 15. Ontario - What To Expect?<br />Ontario-wide births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. From 2002-2005, births have increased by more than 5%.<br />The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 11% lower than levels from the early 1990’s<br />
  16. 16. Cautious Optimism<br />Recent demographic and socio-economic trends, combined with robust growth forecasts for the Province suggest that the declining school age population trends may begin to stabilize in the short to mid term.<br />There are, however, important indicators that should be highlighted and monitored. <br />The table below outlines the female population aged 25-44. The recent increases in births and pre-school aged children is consistent with a slight increase in the 25-44 year old females from 96-01. This same group experienced a decline of 1.2% from 2001-2006.<br />
  17. 17. THE AVON MAITLAND DSB<br />After a decline in 2002, births have been increasing.<br />The pre-school and school aged populations have all declined from 2001 to 2006.<br />The demographics suggest that enrolment declines are likely to continue in the short term but increases in births may stabilize the declines in the mid-term.<br />
  18. 18. Enrolment Projection Indicators<br />Demographic and certain socio-economic characteristics have a significant impact on future enrolment, however there are other factors that can impact projected enrolment.<br />Other important factors that affect the forecasting of school enrolment deal with trends in the enrolment itself.<br /> Junior Kindergarten trends and participation rates<br /> Grade Structure Ratios<br /> Grade 9 participation rates<br /> Returning grade 12’s<br /> ENROLMENT SHARE<br />
  19. 19. Junior Kindergarten Participation Rates<br />The JK grade or entry year into school systems plays an important role in determining future enrolment.<br />
  20. 20. Grade Structure Ratio<br />The grade structure ratio is a comparison of senior elementary students (grade 6-8) to junior elementary students (JK-1). A ratio of 1 means that the senior and junior cohorts are equal to each other. A ratio lower than 1 could indicate short term increases, while a ratio higher than 1 could indicate short term declines.<br />
  21. 21. Secondary Factors<br />The retention of a board’s grade 8 students into grade 9 can have a significant impact on secondary enrolments. Open access allows students to attend the board of their choice for secondary school instruction.<br />The full impact of eliminating OAC’s is still being determined as the percentage of returning grade 12’s varies from board to board and school to school.<br />
  22. 22. Enrolment Share and Participation Rates<br />The participation share of the population and the share of enrolment between school boards can affect future enrolment independent of all other factors.<br />
  23. 23. Enrolment From New Housing Development<br />The projection of new housing growth has a significant impact on projected enrolment.<br /><ul><li>According to County and Municipal growth forecasts approximately 6,364 new housing units are projected to be built in the Board’s jurisdiction over the next 15 years.
  24. 24. 68% of future units are expected to be built in Perth County and 32% in Huron County.
  25. 25. The new housing units are expected to generate almost 1,150 new elementary students and more than 550 new secondary students for the Board over the next 15 years.</li></li></ul><li>TOTAL ELEMENTARY<br />Between 2001 and 2009 elementary enrolment declined by 18.5% .<br />
  26. 26. RA01 – Stratford, Parts Perth East & Perth South(Anne Hathaway, Avon, Bedford, Downie, Hamlet, Easthope, Romeo, Shakespeare, Sprucedale, Central, Northwestern, Central Perth)<br />
  27. 27. RA02 – St. Mary’s, Part Perth South(South Perth, Little Falls, St. Mary’s DCVI)<br />
  28. 28. RA03 – Perth West(Upper Thames)<br />
  29. 29. RA04 – Part Perth East(Milverton, Mornington Central)<br />
  30. 30. RA05 – Perth North(Elma, Listowel Central, ListowelEastdale, Wallace, Grey Central)<br />
  31. 31. RA06- South Huron, Part Bluewater(Exeter, Hensall, Stephen Central, Usborne, Zurich)<br />
  32. 32. RA07 – East Huron, Part Bluewater(Huron, Seaforth)<br />
  33. 33. RA08 – ACW, M-Turnberry, Howick, Goderich, Central & North Huron(Blyth, Brookside, Brussels, Clinton, Colborne, E. Wawanosh, Holmesville, Howick, Hullett, Turnberry, Goderich, GDCI)<br />
  34. 34. TOTAL SECONDARY - HISTORICAL<br />
  35. 35. TOTAL SECONDARY - PROJECTED<br />
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