• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond)
 

Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond)

on

  • 747 views

Telecom trends 2011 & beyond

Telecom trends 2011 & beyond
Mobile NL 2011 - Telecompaper
15 June 2011

Statistics

Views

Total Views
747
Views on SlideShare
746
Embed Views
1

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
20
Comments
0

1 Embed 1

http://twitter.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond) Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond) Presentation Transcript

    • Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent 15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NLJeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent 115 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • ALWAYS ON, ALL THE TIMEFIXED BROADBAND WIRELESS SMARTPHONES CONNECTIONS BASE STATIONS AND TABLETS 4.2 M 289M users 11B apps downloaded 3.6 M 521 M 10 M users340 M 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • AN HOUR IS A LONG TIME IN TELECOM 5400 new fixed broadband connections installed 27 terabytes of 53,425 new traffic mobile smartphones consumed activated Globally, IP traffic will increase by ~11 terabytes each and every hour ~ 590 terabytes 2,842,466 of new storage applications capacity downloaded shipped 81 base stations deployed 3 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • 2011 AND BEYOND - TRENDS By 2014, 50% of mobile data traffic will be video Between 2012 and 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs Wireless All Around World and Internet going mobile 43% of all customer issues: 2 or more support calls Customer Experience Transformation Ever demanding customers From 10.9B app downloads in 2009 to 24.9B in 2011 Application And Content Value Chain Content is king 40% of businesses will buy ICT on the cloud in 2-5 years Cloud will be a $148.8 market in 2014 Cloud Everything in the Cloud 12 broadband expansion projects in Asia, several in Latin America, plus Europe and US Critical National Infrastructure Crucial to economic growth and security M2M estimated at 62M machines/devices in 2010 grows to 2.1B in 2020 Internet Of Things Machine-to-machine opportunitySource: Bell Labs, Juniper Research, Stratecast, Strategy Analytics, ITU, IDC 4 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • DEVICE AND OPPORTUNITY EXPLOSION WNG analysis of device usage in operator network M2M Usage in 2020 100 80 Percentage of Subs 60 40 All Devices IPhone 20 Blackberry Data card Nexus One 0 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Mbytes • M2M device connections will grow from 62 million in 2010 to 2.1 billion devices (Analysys Mason) 10 BBs = 1 iPhone • 30 times as many transactions between machines as 10 iPhones = 1 Datacard humans in 2020 (Forrester Research) ~2-3 iPhones = 1 iPad New devices driving exponential increase in consumption 5 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • REALITY CHALLENGES THE VIDEO STAR(S) 6 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • SPEED IDEAS EST MKTCATEGORY SPEED PLAYERS VALUE ($)MP3 1976 306 B AppleInternet search 1998 184 BStorage and Compute 1994 83 BSocial media 2004 50 B $717 Billion = 90% ofE-commerce 1998 40 B NL GDPBilling 1998 18 BVideo content 1997 12 BMicro blogging 2007 8BIP Telephony 2003 8BLocation-based services 2009 1BProfessional social networking 2003 3B 7 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • ACTIVITY AND REVENUE DICHOTOMY 287 Megabytes The wireless revenue challenge per user/per day Global Traffic (Petabytes) 100% 63,904 80 60 49,919 Voice 40 20,396 Revenue ($B) 2010,174 1,677 1,777 1,585 Data 0 ’07 ’10 ’12 ’14 Traffic Revenue e.g. AT&T mobile data volumes up 8,000% over four years split split 8 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • THE PROBLEM: REVENUE VERSUS NETWORK COST Service provider network model 50 1800 45 1600 40 1400 Mb/data plan sub/month 35 1200 $/sub/month 30 1000 25 800 20A wireless operator makes + 52% CAGR 600 93,750,000 times as 15much revenue per bit from 400 10 SMS, than a wireline - 13% CAGR operator gets from 5 200 delivering a Netflix video 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bell Labs Analysis The operator business model is increasingly unsustainable 9 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • IS THE ANSWER GREATER BW EFFICIENCY? Optical Transport WAN wireless technologies 10 9Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz) 8 Infeasible Region Shannon 7 802.16 bound 4 6 Copper Access Shannon-bound Peak Data Efficiency (bps/Hz) 5 180 Distance = 500 kmShannon bound 4 140 HSDPA 3 Downstream Rate (Mbps) 2 2 100 1 Crosstalker 1 5 Crosstalkers 0 EV-DO 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 60 35 40 SNR (dB) 24 Crosstalkers -5 +5 +15 20 Signal-to-Noise Ratio (dB) 1000 2000 3000 4000 Line Length (meters) Need more spectrum, more ‘channels’ and more application-intelligence 10 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • WHAT’s NEXT? New Generation Wireless New Generation Wireline 910 Mb/s 1000 (4 pairs, 400m) 900 Phantom-on-Phantom Phantom Mode 3-4 800 Line 4 Attainable bitrate (Mb/s) 700 Line 3 Phantom Mode 1-2 390 Mb/s 600 (2 pairs, 400m) Line 2 500 Line 1 Bell Labs new radio cube 400 9x the capacity 300 200 Up to: ¼ cost/bit 100 50% TCO savings 0 1 pair 2 pairs Phantom Vectoring 4 pairs 4 pairs + PM Mode + Vectoring Simpler, lighter... enabling cloud-like networks 11 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • THE FUTURE: MAKING ANTENNAS INVISIBLE On a façade On a pole On a lamppost In a bus stop 12 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:A WIN-WIN-WIN PROPOSITION Application Enablement Revenue/sub. business models Network cost/sub. High-leverage network technologies Customer satisfaction 13 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
    • THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 14 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.