<ul><li>H1N1v in the United Kingdom </li></ul><ul><li>Professor Lindsey Davies </li></ul><ul><li>National Director of Pand...
<ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Current position </li></ul><ul><li>UK approach to swine flu </li></ul><ul><li>Achieveme...
Current position: England <ul><li>As at 27 August: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimated 5,000 new cases in England in previous ...
Planning assumptions for  first major pandemic wave (published July 2009) <ul><ul><li>Clinical attack rate: 30% </li></ul>...
  UK preparation and response <ul><li>Planning and preparation  </li></ul><ul><li>1997- </li></ul><ul><li>Slowing the spre...
Defence in depth Reducing spread Distance, hygiene, masks Reducing infection Vaccines Reducing illness and complications  ...
<ul><li>Response is informed by : </li></ul><ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Service monit...
Slowing the spread <ul><li>Laboratory confirmation of cases </li></ul><ul><li>Treating all suspected and confirmed cases <...
 
  UK preparation and response <ul><li>Planning and preparation 1997- </li></ul><ul><li>Slowing the spread </li></ul><ul><l...
Move to treatment <ul><li>Antiviral treatment for people with symptoms.  </li></ul><ul><li>Limited prophylaxis </li></ul><...
National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) <ul><li>On-line and phone self care service for the public which allows them to check...
Vaccination programme <ul><li>First deliveries expected this month </li></ul><ul><li>Vaccination programme expected to sta...
Vaccination: priority groups <ul><li>1. Those at highest risk of severe illness: </li></ul><ul><li>People aged six months ...
NHS preparedness <ul><li>High levels of demand on primary care, reduced by launch of National Pandemic Flu Service </li></...
To summarise…. <ul><li>Planning has paid off </li></ul><ul><li>But uncertainty about timing, scale and impact of next phas...
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CBI swine flu seminar - Professor Lindsey Davies - H1N1v in the United Kingdom

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Professor Lindsey Davies, National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, on the
H1N1v in the United Kingdom at the CBI swine flu seminar. September 2009.

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CBI swine flu seminar - Professor Lindsey Davies - H1N1v in the United Kingdom

  1. 1. <ul><li>H1N1v in the United Kingdom </li></ul><ul><li>Professor Lindsey Davies </li></ul><ul><li>National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Current position </li></ul><ul><li>UK approach to swine flu </li></ul><ul><li>Achievements and challenges </li></ul>
  3. 3. Current position: England <ul><li>As at 27 August: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimated 5,000 new cases in England in previous week (range 3,000 – 12,000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Downward trend in cases continuing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>218 patients in hospital, 31 in critical care </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Majority of cases continue to be mild </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>57 confirmed swine flu related deaths </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Planning assumptions for first major pandemic wave (published July 2009) <ul><ul><li>Clinical attack rate: 30% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Complication rate: 15% of clinical cases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hospitalisation rate: 2% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Case fatality rate 0.1-0.35% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Peak absence rate: 12% </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. UK preparation and response <ul><li>Planning and preparation </li></ul><ul><li>1997- </li></ul><ul><li>Slowing the spread </li></ul><ul><li>April-June 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Managing outbreaks </li></ul><ul><li>June 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on rapid treatment </li></ul><ul><li>July 2009- </li></ul>
  6. 6. Defence in depth Reducing spread Distance, hygiene, masks Reducing infection Vaccines Reducing illness and complications Antiviral drugs, health care Reducing Deaths: Antibiotics Health care
  7. 7. <ul><li>Response is informed by : </li></ul><ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Service monitoring </li></ul>
  8. 8. Slowing the spread <ul><li>Laboratory confirmation of cases </li></ul><ul><li>Treating all suspected and confirmed cases </li></ul><ul><li>Collecting detailed case data </li></ul><ul><li>Tracing close contacts and offering prophylaxis </li></ul><ul><li>Closing schools </li></ul><ul><li>Public health campaign </li></ul>
  9. 10. UK preparation and response <ul><li>Planning and preparation 1997- </li></ul><ul><li>Slowing the spread </li></ul><ul><li>April-June 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Managing outbreaks </li></ul><ul><li>June 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Treatment phase </li></ul><ul><li>July 2009- </li></ul>
  10. 11. Move to treatment <ul><li>Antiviral treatment for people with symptoms. </li></ul><ul><li>Limited prophylaxis </li></ul><ul><li>Launch of National Pandemic Flu Service </li></ul><ul><li>Local risk assessment informs other measures </li></ul>
  11. 12. National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) <ul><li>On-line and phone self care service for the public which allows them to check their symptoms and access antivirals if required, or receive advice on symptom relief </li></ul><ul><li>Mobilised when needed </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity adjusted in response to demand </li></ul>0800 1 513 100
  12. 13. Vaccination programme <ul><li>First deliveries expected this month </li></ul><ul><li>Vaccination programme expected to start in autumn </li></ul><ul><li>No vaccinations until licensed by EMEA </li></ul><ul><li>Priority groups first </li></ul>
  13. 14. Vaccination: priority groups <ul><li>1. Those at highest risk of severe illness: </li></ul><ul><li>People aged six months and up to 65 years in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at risk groups </li></ul><ul><li>All pregnant women, subject to licensing considerations on trimesters </li></ul><ul><li>Household contacts of immunocompromised individuals </li></ul><ul><li>People aged 65 and over in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at risk groups  </li></ul><ul><li>2. Frontline health and social care workers </li></ul>
  14. 15. NHS preparedness <ul><li>High levels of demand on primary care, reduced by launch of National Pandemic Flu Service </li></ul><ul><li>Exercising and testing of plans </li></ul><ul><li>Critical care strategy </li></ul>
  15. 16. To summarise…. <ul><li>Planning has paid off </li></ul><ul><li>But uncertainty about timing, scale and impact of next phase(s) remain </li></ul><ul><li>And we must continue to prepare for a range of scenarios in this pandemic - and the next </li></ul>
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