Rayola Dougher - Annual Meeting

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  • Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past years due to an expanded shale gas resource base. Prices were near $10 mcf in 2005 and now at around $4 mcf. EIA forecasts price of $7 mcf through 2035 with low of $5.35 and high of $9.26
  • Employment in the United States supported by new oil sands investments is expected to row to 465,000 jobs by 2035. For every two jobs supported in Canada, one job will be supported in the U.S. According to the Alberta government, for every US dollar spent on Canadian exports (e.e. crude oil) up to 90 cents is in fact spent on imports of US goods and services to Canada.The total economic impact over the next 25 years is estimate to reach over $521 billion dollars added to our GDP
  • Besides jobs and revenue, the other big takeaway from our research is the benefit for energy security.  More development under reasonable regulations would substantially increase how much energy we produce at home. Add to that more imports of oil from Canada, assuming the Keystone XL and other pipelines are built – and more use of biofuels based on DOE’s projections – and you are potentially at the point where all the nation’s liquid fuels could come from secure North American and mostly U.S. sources.  Oil and natural gas companies want to operate here and produce more American energy. It’s a safe business environment. Substantial quantities of energy remain to be produced. And the U.S. market is the biggest in the world.  A strategy to help our economy through more oil and natural gas development would work. With the right policy changes, we could be producing more energy, creating more jobs for Americans, and generating more revenue for our government.
  •  The President’s plan is a $450 billion proposal that includes a $90 billion or more tax increase on America’s oil and natural gas industry. No other major industry pays more in total taxes, and they pay at lower effective tax rates than the oil and natural gas industry, yet the president is proposing higher taxes on us again. A tax hike on the industry is the wrong choice. It won’t create jobs. Instead, it will slow down an industry that has a proven track record of being one of the nation’s biggest and most dependable job creators.   
  • Rayola Dougher - Annual Meeting

    1. 1. ENERGIZING AMERICA:THE ROLE OF OIL ANDNATURAL GAS IN AMERICA‟SENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor, dougherr@api.org
    2. 2. Oil & Natural Gas Industry: TheBackbone of the American Economy  Supports more than 9 million jobs  Supplies more than 60% of our energy needs  Generates hundreds of billions of dollars in government
    3. 3. Economic Impact of Oil and NaturalGas Industry on Arkansas’ Economy  Supports 76,500 Arkansan jobs  Supports total value added to Arkansas’ economy of $6.5 billion or 6.6% of GSP
    4. 4. Oil Prices and Profits
    5. 5. Changes in Gasoline and Diesel PricesMirror Changes in Crude Oil Prices
    6. 6. Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors Non-OPEC supply growth Inventories OPEC production Global economic decisions growth GlobalSpare production Oil Prices Speculation, hedging,capacity investment Exchange rates and Geo-political risks Inflation Weather
    7. 7. What Consumers are Paying for at the Gasoline PumpAverage of gasoline components for January – June, 2011 as reported by EIA
    8. 8. First Quarter 2011 Earnings by Industry (net income/sales)Source: Based on company filings with the federal government as reported by U.S. Census Bureau and Oil Daily.
    9. 9. Who Owns “Big Oil”?(Holdings of Oil Stocks)
    10. 10. U.S. Energy Demand
    11. 11. Future U.S. Energy DemandThe U.S. will require 20 percent more energy in 2035 than in 2009
    12. 12. Shale Gas Potential
    13. 13. Shale Gas Plays, Lower 48States
    14. 14. Four-fold increase in shale gas production offsets declines in otherU.S. supply, meeting consumption growth and lowering import needsU.S. dry gastrillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections30 1%25 Net imports 11%20 46% 14% Shale gas15 20% Non-associated onshore 8% 9% Non-associated offshore 8%10 22% 28% Tight gas5 7% 8% Coalbed methane 7% 2% 9% Associated with oil Alaska1%0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 15
    15. 15. Oil Supply
    16. 16. Sources of Crude Oil Supply
    17. 17. Canadian oil sands development a boonto U.S. economy For every two jobssupported in Canada, one jobwill be supported in the U.S Canada‟s oil sands cansupport 600,000 U.S. jobs by2035. For every US dollar spenton Canadian exports (i.e.crude oil) up to 90 cents isspent on imports of USgoods and services toCanada.$775 billion dollars added toour GDP over next 25 years.
    18. 18. Offshore Undiscovered Technically RecoverableFederal Oil (Bbl) and Natural Gas (Tcf) Resources
    19. 19. FILLING AMERICA’S GAS TANK Within 15 years Canada & US can provide all our liquid fuel needs Sources of liquid fuel supply: 2026 32% Oil from rest of world 12% Biofuels 16% 12% Oil from Canada 12% US oil production 72% 45% EIA forecast PotentialSources: EIA; Wood Mackenzie
    20. 20. Potential Jobs and Government Revenue Jobs Revenue (thousands) (billions $) Rockies 2015 = 668 2015 = $36.0 (PADD 4) Midwest 2020 = 1,139 2020 = $126.6 (PADD 2)West 2030 = 1,404 2030 = $800.1Coast, AK &HI 175 235 232 East Coast(PADD 5) (PADD 1) 81 172 45 300 84 202 $61.6 $7.5 410 $23.9 $0.6 $2.1 $7.5 354 168 $242.6 $225 267 291 196 $263.4 $42.2 $12.7 $8.4 $27.2 $31.2 $6.9 Gulf Coast (PADD 3)Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.Source: Wood Mackenzie Report, “U.S. Supply Forecast and Potential Jobs and Economic Impacts (2012-2030)”, September 7, 2011
    21. 21. Taxes
    22. 22. THE PRESIDENT’S PLAN Taxing success: Taxing oil & natural gas industryA tax of $90 billion or more on the oil &natural gas industry„Fairness?‟$86 million a day in revenue from oil & gasOil and gas income tax rate 41.1% versus26.5% for S&P
    23. 23. Proposed Tax Increases on the American Oiland Gas Industry (billions of dollars)
    24. 24. Effective Tax Rates Among Industries(averaged over 2005-2009)
    25. 25. Thank YouFor more information visitwww.api.orgwww.energytomorrow.orgwww.energycitizens.org

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