Mobile, Local and Real-Time Search - Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling Sterling Market Intelligence/Opus Research April 29, 2010 ‘ Mobile, Local and Real-Time Search’ (mostly mobile)

Jobs: lawyer, editor, startups, analyst, blogger, lover, fighter
Coverage:
search, directories, verticals/classifieds, online newspapers, “social media,” mobile , video, multi-channel shopping
About Me . . .
“ Internet’s impact on offline consumer behavior”

Faster . . . And Faster We know something's happening, and we're beginning to sense what it is. We're speeding up; our technology is speeding up; our arts and entertainment and the pace of invention and change -- it's all speeding up. James Gleick, Faster (1999)

How Many Smartphones in This Room? Or should I ask . . . Who doesn’t have a smartphone?

Exciting pocket computers and tablets
Ubiquitous connectivity (which is coming)
Culture of participation/sharing: “tweets, updates, tips”
Geotagged data, matched with places
The Cloud: my content, any device
Internet-based computing will look very different in a few years than today
Tweets + Streets “ We’re at the beginning of the beginning” . . . of a new era of computing. --Google Engineering VP Vic Gundotra

We now can take the Internet with us
We use these devices to help make decisions
Influenced by opinions and recommendations of others; deals, discounts, incentives
All that can now be accessed or pushed in near real time to our handsets in specific contexts.
There’s also cool stuff like augmented reality (Zillow has a version of this today)
Mobile + Local + Real Time: All Connected

Local, Mobile, Social, Real-Time Converge

Geotagged Tweets on Maps

Foursquare ‘Tips’ on Bing Maps

Quick B.G. on Local

Local is the ‘last mile of search’; mobile is ‘last block’
Local is about driving to the POS
96% of all transactions happen offline*
Offline transactions increasingly Web-influenced
80% to 90% consumers do online research before buying**
*US Census Bureau, Q4 2009
**Compete, Yahoo!, BIGResearch, BIA, other studies (2007-2010)
What Is Local?

Local means different things in different contexts
Definitions of “local” may also vary depending on whether discussing consumers or advertisers
Most of what people do online relates to their real-world lives
Most of What We Do Online about Offline
Maps & Directions
Restaurants
Retail/products
Professional & home services
Travel
Jobs
Cars
Real Estate
Entertainment
Dating

Google: “20% of searches on Google are related to location”
comScore: in March Google had 14.3 billion search queries
That’s TWO BILLION EIGHT HUNDRED SIXTY MILLION local queries monthly (at a minimum)
Google: Over 30 Billion Served

Your Customers Are Digital

Millennials More Tied to Internet, Tech Source: Pew Internet & American Life (2/10) 93% of Millennials are online 63% of 12-17 yr olds online at least once a day 68% of adults 18 - 29

Internet Trumps Traditional Media Source: Trulia-Harris Interactive, May 2009 n=2,715 US adults; home buyers n=192
Information sources for home buyers (Internet vs. traditional media):
62% of home buyers reported use online sources during their housing search
Primary source:
41% Internet
14% print

Hitwise: Top 20 Real Estate Sites Source: Hitwise, April 17 2010

Google ‘Verticalizes’ Local for Real Estate

The Social Media ‘Firehose’ (where the RT data come from)

Facebook Top Search Term
More than 400 million active users
50% of active users log on to Facebook in any given day
Average user has 130 friends
People spend over 500 billion minutes per month on FB
More than 100 million mobile users, 2X more active

Facebook On Way to Being #1? Source: Compete, Inc. March 2010
Google: 146,954,711
Facebook: 132,040,907

The Twitter ‘Firehose’
Twitter has 105,779,710 registered users
300,000 new users sign up per day
Twitter receives 180 million unique visitors per month
75% of Twitter traffic comes from third-party applications
60% of all tweets come from third-party apps
600 million search queries on Twitter per day
Over 100,000 Twitter applications
3 billion requests a day through its API
37% of active Twitter users use their phone to tweet

Mobile (finally)

Projection: Mobile Bigger than PC by 2014 Source: Morgan Stanley Internet Update 4/2010

Comparing Populations: US, Online, Mobile Source: Opus Research, comScore, CTIA, Nielsen, US Census Bureau (2009) 4 Major US Carriers: 250M subs approx. Mobile Internet: 73M 4.1B texts DAILY Daily Internet access between 30% and 55%

Segments: SMS, Mobile Web, Apps SMS: Least “sexy,” broadest reach, platform “agnostic” Apps: Richest experience, smaller audience Mobile Web: Tiny version of site; should be optimized Reach Engagement

Source: Nielsen, Q1 2010 Projection: US Smartphone Growth

US ‘Smartphone’ Share Source: comScore, 3/10

SMS vs. Mobile Internet Source: comScore, Pew Internet & American Life Project (March, 2010) Among US smartphone owners frequency and penetration are greater. Total mobile Internet users in US approaching 75 million on way to 100 million this year

Activities: Touchscreen Smartphone Users (iPhone/Droid/BlackBerry Storm) Source: Opus Research, 3/10 (n=105 touchscreen smartphone users, total sample 1,300)

“ Over the last 12 months, how often have you engaged in the following activities?” Source: Opus Research, 3/10 (n=393 smartphone users, total sample 1,300) 38 44 62% at least weekly mobile Internet users 53% of smartphone owners report using mobile Internet “ at least once a day ” 90%+ of iPhone users access the mobile Internet Opus Research, 3/09; Nielsen (2009)

Source: Nielsen, 12/09 Data from Jan – Sept, 2009 Nielsen: Top Mobile Sites 2009

Source: Opera Software (3/10) March, 2010 Opera Mini Usage in US Opera: Top Sites

According to a 2009 comScore survey of 7,300 US iPhone/iPod Touch owners . . . Mobile Preferred Medium?
40% said they go online more often on their mobile devices than via PC.

Mobile + Real Estate

Scores of Apps for the iPhone OS
100+ apps shown in response to search for “real estate”
38 apps for “apartment”
3 “apartment” apps for the iPad

Trulia Mobile Trends: Buyers
The busiest day for mobile day is Sunday, Saturday second
Sunday has about 70% more usage than Friday (the lowest day)
Consistent pattern: iPhone app & Trulia access via mobile browser
Over 50% of searches on iPhone are for properties “near me”
Most popular city in July was Corona, CA
Most popular zip in July was 60035 (Highland Park, IL)
No specific locations dominant

Source: Trulia, 8/09 ” We hear from agents and consumers who say they found an open house they didn’t know about through the iPhone app.” "Mobile is about weekend house hunting and finding open houses."

Trulia Mobile Trends: Renters
So far (Since launching rental property search on 4/7):
Rental performance on mobile is on par with overall mobile performance, in both visits, page views and leads to properties
Seeing around approx 10% mobile usage for Trulia , with spikes coming on the weekends
Apple OS is still the biggest source of traffic on our mobile website, but Android is the fastest growing
Trulia CEO: Rentals even more suited to mobile because they’re more “perishable” and there’s more impulse there
Source: Trulia, 8/09

Zillow: Mobile Users More Engaged
On the weekends, 15% of homes viewed on Zillow come from mobile devices (10% during the week).
Relative to Zillow.com traffic, users are viewing active listings 45% more often from mobile devices (which indicates the mobile audience is primarily active buyers, on location or scoping out neighborhoods.
Over two million homes are viewed on the iPhone each month.
Zillow iPhone+iPad App - 1.1 million combined downloads.
Zillow Android App is the leading real estate app in the Android Market, 150K + downloads in one month since launching.
Source: Zillow, 4/10

Zillow’s Mobile Future Source: Zillow, August, 2009 “ There is a future where the majority of Zillow usage will come from a mobile device. Quite literally, launching this app has changed the way we are thinking about the future of our business and how people will get their real estate information.” --Amy Bohutinsky, VP Zillow

Mobile Marketing & ROI

The Paradox of Choice

How to Think about Mobile
It’s real; user base is already large
Mobile buyers on the go are “actively looking”
Leads can potentially be better
Mobile not a “stand alone channel,” use in tandem with online + print – extends reach of other media; think about integration
Enables immediate response/action from buyers

Mobile Search (already doing SEO/PPC?)
Display & Rich Media (mobile Web, in-app, video)
Branded app (publisher, broker, maybe agent)
Listings (classifieds)
Do nothing: your data will make it into mobile (probably)
What Are the Options?

Google Mobile AdWords: Consumer
Pros : Online campaigns can carry into mobile easily (+ PPCall option); CTR & call through rates higher in mobile
Cons : Much more limited inventory

Google Mobile AdWords: Marketer
Target carriers, devices, mobile only

At least 35 mobile “ad networks” operating in US market. The top ones are the following:
Google
Yahoo!
Microsoft
AdMob (Google, pending)
Quattro (Apple)
JumpTap
Millennial Media
AOL
Greystripe
Top Mobile Ad Networks

Sophisticated Targeting: Mobile ‘PRIZM’

Facebook Targeting: Demo, Geo, Interest
Facebook allows multiple layers of targeting based on user registration, location and profile data

Consumer Attitudes & Response

Nielsen:
68% of mobile data users in US opposed to mobile Internet ads, even if those ads subsidize a portion of their bills.
Only 8% feel mobile ads are trustworthy
87% are not open to mobile ads even if those ads are relevant to their interests
Source: : Nielsen, Citibank 4/09; Opus Research, 3/09 (n=707 mobile phone users) Consumers Historically Hostile to Mobile Ads

Source : eConsultancy 4/09 n=1,400 US adults “ I Hate Advertising on . . .” Numbers here are the lowest/most receptive I’ve seen based on survey data

% AGREE Source: Opus Research/I2Go, 4/09, n=611 Mobile Internet Users More Receptive

Movie/event tickets (43%)
Weather information (39%)
Clearance/liquidation sales (37%)
Pizza (31%)
Clothes (30%)
Source: 1020- Placecast, Harris Interactive, 7/09 (n=2,029 US adults) Interested in SMS Alerts/Offers 6. Fast food (27%) 7. Electronics (25%) 8. Music (24%) 9. Happy hour specials or bar and night night club offers (21%)

38% of smartphone owners have taken action in response to mobile ads. Of that group:
53% clicked on ads
35% opted-in to receive more information/deal via email
34% made purchase online or in-store
32% opted-in to receive more information/deal via SMS
24% made purchase via mobile
Response rates vary by campaign and method but are considerably higher than on PC Internet
Source: Universal McCann/AOL Study: “Smart Phone, Smart Marketing” June, 2009 Smartphone Mobile Response Rates High

Mobile coupons redeemed at rates higher than traditional or online coupons:
Source: Valassis/NCH, Cellfire, Inmar, Coupons.com, other industry sources ValPak indicated it was seeing 25% redemption rates earlier this year Comparing Coupon Redemption Rates

In research conducted through the holiday season with three brands 65% of consumers that opted-in to follow a brand made a purchase as a result of receiving messages based on place and time. -- 1020 Placecast re ShopAlerts (3/10) Conversion for Opt-in SMS Campaigns

Respondents Mobile N = 47,658 Online N = 513,973 Source: InsightExpress, 2009 Mobile Display Outperforms Online InsightExpress campaign data

Not ‘Why?’ but ‘When’ & ‘What’
The question is not “why mobile?” but “when mobile?”
Strategy/tactics: what’s the right approach?
Mobile should be considered along with other campaigns
Publishers and channels you already work with and content you generate already being distributed in mobile
Your prospects and customers are using the mobile Internet, shouldn’t you?
“ Ask your doctor, use only as directed”

Greg Sterling greg [email_address] com
Twitter.com/gsterling
Follow or Contact Me

Questions?

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Mobile, Local and Real-Time Search - Greg Sterling

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