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Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
Michael kennedy   set-based decision making taming system complexity
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Michael kennedy set-based decision making taming system complexity

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  • 1. Set-Based Decision Making Taming System Complexity Michael Kennedy Founder – Targeted Convergence Corporation michaelk@targetedconvergence.com Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 2. Theory Versus PracticeTheory - Is when everyone knows why, but nothing functions.Practice – Is when everything functions, but nobody knows why. German Soccer Coach Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 3. Theory Versus Practice  In theory, phase gates systems should function well.   In Practice, they don’t.  In theory, knowledge management systems work.   In Practice, they don’t.  The Toyota Product Development system functions very well.   Theoretically, it is hard to define why.If you can’t define why it works, how can you achieve it? Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 4. What is the State of HardwareProduct Development? Here is what I see over and over:   Schedules and detailed requirements are set early   The system concept is set quickly   This begins wide sets of planned tasks to meet requirements (Phase-Gate Planning)   Eventually the critical knowledge gaps emerge   The loopbacks start and continue for the life of the programConsistent Results: project delays, cost overruns, 70% ofengineers firefighting, problems repeat on next projects Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 5. The Fundamental Problem Made and unmade decisions in the “Fuzzy Front End” cause loopbacks!Fuzzy Front-End Concept Planning Design Validation Manufac Customer Phase Phase Phase Phase -turing Usage Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 6. The Fuzzy Front-End, aka: The Land of Little Scrutiny  Start design early to finish on time.  Choose fast and be specific.Product and process decisions are made:  Before customer needs are understood  Before feasibility is proven  Without knowing why past products succeeded or failed Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 7. It Get’s Worse Fuzzy Front-End Concept Planning Design Validation Manufac- Customer Phase Phase Phase Phase turing Usage Fuzzy Front-End Knowledge doesn’t flow between projects. Concept Planning Design Validation Manufac- Customer Phase Phase Phase Phase turing Usage Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 8. What challenge is product development trying tosolve? Business Goals Technical Capability Customer Interests   Product development is about innovating a solution that:   Achieves your business goals   Satisfies your customers’ interests   Fits within your technical capabilities The goal is to find that sweet-spot. Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. Unfortunately, in the Fuzzy Front End,we have a very fuzzy view of that sweet spot Business Goals Technical ? Capability Customer Interests Fuzzy Front-End   We  have  unclear  visibility  to:   Concept Planning Design Prototype   Our  business  goals   Manufac- Customer Phase Phase Phase Phase turing Usage   Our  customers’  interests     Our  technical  capabili8es     So,  what  do  we  do?     Tradi8onally:    we  GUESS!...   Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 10. Here’s what’s going on Fuzzy Success Front Assured Detailed End Design Does it work? Ramp-up Select one, and hope it works! This Time Frame is Unstable Detailed Specs We call this point based Design Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 11. Toyota is in a Different Paradigm Traditional Toyota Product Specific as possible Rough targets to start. Specs Early as possible. Details evolve with the project. Design Made as early as possible. Delayed as long as possible. Decisions Testing Mostly after design, to fix. Mostly before design, to learn Project Administrative – to manage Technical – to manage knowledge process compliance growth into productsManagement Innovation New product breakthroughs, but New product concepts Focus mostly subsystem platforms Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 12. The Toyota PhilosophyProduct development is not about developing cars, it is about developing knowledge about cars. Great cars will emerge from the interaction. Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 13. At Toyota, Product Development looks like this Focused Knowledge Development across projects RAPID CYCLES OF LEARNING Design Phase Validation Phase Launch Phase & CONVERGNCE And the pull of RAPID CYCLES OF LEARNING Design Phase Validationt Phase Launch Phase & CONVERGNCE the knowledge into a cadence of products Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 14. At Toyota, Product Development looks like this Focused KnowledgeWe call it Development acrossSet-Based projectsDecision SET-BASED Design Phase Validation Phase Launch Phase DESIGNmaking SET-BASED DESIGN Design Phase Validationt Phase Launch Phase And the pull of the knowledge into a cadence of products Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 15. Set-Based Designlooks like this: Captured Knowledge for Future Use! Both Successes & FailuresFuzzy FrontEnd Detailed Confirm it Design Works Ramp-up This Time Frame is Stable and Known Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 16. Set-Based Designlooks like this: Captured Knowledge for Future Use! Both Successes & FailuresFuzzy FrontEnd Detailed Confirm it Design Works Ramp-up Success This Time Frame is Stable and Known Detailed Assured Specs Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 17. Set-Based Thinkinglooks like this: What are These?   Are they System concepts only?   Are they subsystem variations?   Or, are they something else? Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 18. Toyota has taught the answer to that questionTradeoff and limit curves are the visual representation of basic product and process physics and economicsThey are the Toyota’s engineer’s primary tool to: Safe region  Understand  Communicate and negotiate between specialties and functions  Train new engineers  Record knowledge  Negotiate and communicate between customer and supplier Infeasible  Conduct design reviews  Communicate between developers and managers  Design quality into the product Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 19. Introducing Limit & Tradeoff CurvesTradeoff and limit curves are the visual representation of basic product and process physics and economicsThey are the Toyota’s engineer’s primary tool to: Safe region  Understand  Communicate and negotiate between specialties and functions  Train new engineers “The most important thing I learned  Record knowledge at Toyota was their dependence onInfeasible  Negotiate and communicate between customer and supplier and the power of limit and tradeoff curves”  Conduct design reviews  Communicate between developers and managers Dr. Allen Ward  Design quality into the product Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 20. Generalizing and Visualizing the Knowledge Muffler: goal is to minimize both noise and back pressure Existing Product Noise level Did you learn anything for Prototype 2 future design? Prototype 1 Was that best trade-off Back pressure for customer? Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 21. Generalizing and Visualizing the Knowledge Muffler: goal is to minimize both noise and back pressure Noise level Prototype 2 Prototype 1 Back pressure Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 22. Generalizing and Visualizing the Knowledge Muffler: goal is to minimize both noise and back pressure So, all you really learned was that one trade-off point! Noise level Is the lesson that you can’t get more quiet than this? Or something in between? Or is the lesson that the smallest backpressure is this? Back pressure Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 23. Generalizing and Visualizing the Knowledge Muffler: goal is to minimize both noise and back pressure The Toyota Way: Multiple prototypes are built and tested Noise level to failure Safe region This is Set-Based Thinking! Infeasible Don’t capture points, Back pressure capture sets! Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 24. Set-Based Decision-Making is optimizing tradeoffs between Customer Interests using Set-Based Knowledge from others Existing Product Noise level Detailed Design Infeasible Set-Based Back pressure Decision- Set-Based Making Knowledge SolutionProject Team sets Mfg cost Making decisions without understanding the impact Existing Product Production on customers is the major Support cause of loopbacks Back pressure Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 25. Set-Based makes your Knowledge concrete suchthat…  … it can flow between areas of expertise Existing Product Noise level (collaboration). Detailed Design  … it can flow between projects (reuse). Infeasible  … it can be continuously Back pressure Set-Based Knowledge improved. Solution  … it can make visible sets what needs to be Mfg cost learned to further converge. Existing Product Production Support Back pressure Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 26. Set-Based Knowledge Flow K K Knowledge is created How Set-Based from product VS #2 andSupports Knowledge K K is added to the golden arrow along with Flow K K Knowledge from VS #1 Set-Based Phase Design Validation Customer Mfg. Phase Phase Usage K K PRODUCT #2 Value Stream P Some previous Knowledge is used K K in the next product value stream A Continuous Improvement thru D K K Set-Based Problem Solving C K = Re-useable Knowledge, Set-Based Phase Design Validation Customer Mfg. Curves, Guidelines, etc. Phase Phase Usage Both previous successes as well as failures provide knowledge for future use! PRODUCT #1 Value Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation Stream All Rights Reserved.
  • 27. This was the learning: robust, approved Then they learn some moreThen they standardizefor Set-Based reuse Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 28. The Limit Curves provide the knowledge foundation CGx vs. Launch Conditions Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 29. The knowledge is also the Basis forInnovation By removing the technical restrictions We need tomove the wall Then setting the new standards Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.
  • 30. Some Questions to Ponder Set-Based Phase Design Validation Customer Mfg. Phase Phase UsageIs Set-Based Design a Version of Agile? - Both are rapid cycles of learning - Both build out the system as you learnWhy does pure hardware development not use Agile?Is Agile a Version of Set-Based Design?How about embedded software? Copyright © 2011 Targeted Convergence Corporation All Rights Reserved.

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