Dave snowden practice without sound theory will not scale

think anew, act anew All cartoons courtesy of GAPING VOIDCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 1 brutal facts We are creating a dependency on recipe book users and we are loosing our chefs There is a near absence of learning from natural science in organisational management ... ... but pseudo-science, pop- science, techno-fetishism & cults are all too pervasive 98% of our genetic history is as pliocene hunter-gathers; we are social creatures from engineering to ecology Systems thinking (dynamics) has reached its effective limits, from idealised future states, to radical shift to complexity exploring the evolutionary potential of theory informed by cognitive the present science Pragmatic, abductive, effectiveCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 2

Bounded applicability Key language A system is any network that has coherence Complex Complicated it may be fuzzy, it may or may not have purpose Probe Sense Sense Analyse An agent is anything which acts Respond Respond within the system individual, group, idea etc. Emergent Good practice Three types of system Ordered: system constrains Chaotic Simple agents Act Chaotic: agents unconstrained & Sense Sense independent of each other Respond Categorise Respond Complex: system lightly constrains agents, agents modify Novel Best practice system by their interaction with it and each other, they co-evolveCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 3 from cause to dispositions A visual representation showing the performance of all possible examples, cases or situations in phase space Each trough represents a stable state – each peak represents an instability where the dynamic landscape can potentially reconfigure dramatically the next instant Identifying and tweaking control parameters can create instabilities that show the tipping points Fitness landscape Large fluctuations are a clue that a phase change is approaching Allows nuanced behaviour to be appreciated & probedCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 4

meeting them half way Decisions: a first fit pattern match with prior experience 5, 15 & 150 Ritual is key to switching patterns of interaction Crews create ritual context SNS, creating cross silo teams with constrained self- organisation Narrative is key to human insight & sense-making ... ...self-interpreted micro- narrative is key to operationCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 5 Rewards before the fact “Economists and workplace consultants regard it as almost unquestioned dogma that people are motivated by rewards, so they don’t feel the need to test this. It has the status more of religious truth than scientiﬁc hypothesis.” “The facts are absolutely clear. There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivation” New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 6

Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 7 S Curves adapted with Moore Until it gets taken to excess, looses utility but prevents new entrants Early enthusiasts Yellow is the get very danger zone: excited change or die It then becomes the new orthodoxy (after a lot of pain, and If it looks serious the frequently badly white blood cells of compromised orthodoxy kick inCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 8

Moving to the next paradigm COGNITIVE COMPLEXITYUTILITY OF PARADIGM Impact orientated Pervasive computing Evolutionary possibilities Clans in situated networks SYSTEMS DYNAMICS Outcome focused Scalable computing Engineering dominates Cult of individual; atomism SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT Hierarchical Telephone & fax Muddling through Fiefs in bureaucracies TIME Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 9 Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 10

Beware magpie 4.0 Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 11 Nasrudin found a weary falcon sitting one day on his window-sill. He had never seen a bird like this before. “You poor thing”, he said, “how ever were you to allowed to get into this state?” He clipped the falcon’s talons and cut its beak straight, and trimmed its feathers. “Now you look more like a bird”, said NasrudinCopyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 12

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