This presentation discusses the relationship between risk behaviours for syphilis and interventions targeting at-risk groups. This presentation was given at AFAO's syphilis forum in May 2009.
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David Wilson: Modelling The Impact of Targeted Syphilis Interventions
1. Modelling the impact of targeted interventions on syphilis epidemics A/Prof David Wilson Richard Gray, Alex Hoare, Garrett Prestage, Basil Donovan, John Kaldor
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5. Cartoon example >1 (epidemic growing) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
6. Cartoon example <1 (epidemic declining) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
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11. Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing coverage (at same frequency) has minimal impact currently 55-70%
12. Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing frequency (at same coverage) can have substantial impact (goal: every 3 months)
13. Interventions targeting all MSM Expected notifications Syphilis prevalence Synchronized (“blitz”) testing can only result in a noticeable reduction in incidence and prevalence if it occurs at least twice per year