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Modelling the impact of targeted interventions on syphilis epidemics A/Prof David Wilson Richard Gray, Alex Hoare, Garrett Prestage,  Basil Donovan, John Kaldor
The Anderson-May equation ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Anderson-May equation ,[object Object],Susceptible Infected
The Anderson-May equation ,[object Object],Susceptible Infected Recover from infection after ‘D’ years Rate of becoming infected depends on the number of contacts (partnerships) ‘c’ and probability of transmission per partnership ‘ β ’
Cartoon example >1 (epidemic growing) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
Cartoon example <1 (epidemic declining) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
Important factors for STI control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Controlling specific epidemics ,[object Object],Susceptible Infected Syphilis natural history Basic STI
Syphilis Model ,[object Object],Partnership network Transmission tracking  Disease progression
Model Calibration ,[object Object],Victorian Epidemic
Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing coverage (at same frequency) has minimal impact currently  55-70%
Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing frequency (at same coverage) can have substantial impact (goal: every 3 months)
Interventions targeting all MSM Expected notifications Syphilis prevalence Synchronized (“blitz”) testing can only result in a noticeable reduction in incidence and prevalence if it occurs at least twice per year
Contact tracing
Interventions Targeting at Risk Groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Efficiency of interventions are highly variable ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Model Predictions and Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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David Wilson: Modelling The Impact of Targeted Syphilis Interventions

  • 1. Modelling the impact of targeted interventions on syphilis epidemics A/Prof David Wilson Richard Gray, Alex Hoare, Garrett Prestage, Basil Donovan, John Kaldor
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  • 5. Cartoon example >1 (epidemic growing) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
  • 6. Cartoon example <1 (epidemic declining) Susceptible Infected ‘ D’ years c β
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  • 11. Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing coverage (at same frequency) has minimal impact currently 55-70%
  • 12. Interventions targeting all MSM Increasing testing frequency (at same coverage) can have substantial impact (goal: every 3 months)
  • 13. Interventions targeting all MSM Expected notifications Syphilis prevalence Synchronized (“blitz”) testing can only result in a noticeable reduction in incidence and prevalence if it occurs at least twice per year
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