Future goggles  changes and challenges in waste and resources
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Future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources

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Adam Read, AEA's Waste and Resource Efficiency Practice Director, presents his views on the changes & challenges in UK waste & resource management at the CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event (20th ...

Adam Read, AEA's Waste and Resource Efficiency Practice Director, presents his views on the changes & challenges in UK waste & resource management at the CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event (20th April 2012, Exeter).

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    Future goggles  changes and challenges in waste and resources Future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources Presentation Transcript

    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 My presentation in 20 minutes + Acknowledgements Future Goggles: changes & challenges + A personal welcome in UK waste & resource management + The Timeline + Looking Back - 1982 + Making predictions – science or art? + Looking Forward – 2042 Dr Adam Read + The future resource management sector … Director + A role for the CIWM? AEA 20th April 2012 + Closure … 2 Presented @ the CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event (20th April 2012, Exeter)CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 1
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 The 3 wise men A personal welcome + Chris Coggins + Ernie Sharp + Lewis Herbert + Thank you for your ‘memories’ 3CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 2
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 My sponsor - www.aeat.co.uk Why me? + Practice Director @ AEA - Waste Management & Resource Efficiency + Heavily involved with all things CIWM - Chartered Waste Manager (and Environmentalist) - Member of CIWM East Anglia Council - Member of CIWM Education & Training Committee - Former Chair of CIWM Midlands Centre Council - Former London CIWM NGG Co-ordinator + Former Research Fellow @ Kingston Uni - PhD in waste policy & strategy delivery + 18 years of waste sector experience + Self confessed Sci-Fi geek! 6CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 3
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Some caveats … + I can not ‘see the future’ - But I spent 3 hours last Saturday thinking about it…. + I am using the past to help predict the future + This is not ‘real science’ + These are my opinions - and mine only + Humour me… you can disagree over lunch later! + And don’t quote me!! This is not about the beer goggles 7 8CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 4
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 The Timeline in question …. 2042 2012 1982 A 30 year horizon seems sensible 9 Aged 8 Aged 38 Aged 68 10CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 5
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 So what happened in 1982? Looking back to 1982 + Michael Jackson’s Thriller Album released + Falklands war rages + Dallas was the most watched TV show + World Cup football tournament in Spain + The Satellite Channel launched - now Sky1 + Channel 4 started broadcasting + Knight Rider reaches the UK 11 12CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 6
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 @ the movies ….. And more importantly …. + The launch of the Commodore 64 - Home computing for the masses!! 13 14CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 7
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 So what about waste management … Steptoe and son losing ground …. + UK was dominated by dustbins and black sacks - some bottle banks (even less can banks) - a few council run door to door paper (and textile) collections + Still a few rag and bone men … + UK household waste recycling average was < 2% + London was leading the way in 1982 - first Recycling Committee / Environment Panel created by GLC - first HWRC created at Victoria Road - Hillingdon - first UK recycling officer Jeff Cooper appointed! 15 16CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 8
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 London’s first recycling officer Waste composition trends …. 100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage % (by weight) 60% 50% Plastic Textile Metal Glass Paper Food/Garden Ash/Dust 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17 1966 1978 1982 1993 2004CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 9
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 So what’s changed in 30 years? The speed of change? + Waste Management + Can we predict the future? - Rise of the large waste management companies - If so, how far into the future? - Kerbside collections are now the norm - Dustbins replaced by wheelie bins - Waste arisings per head have increased + Which model should we believe? - Recycling rates have soared (by over 40%) - Today = the technology revolution - Focus is now on organic materials - Speed of change increases year on year - Increasing concerns about climate and resources + Society - Pre 20th Century = the slow burn - Technology has come on leaps and bounds (IPads etc.) - Was Roman Britain so different from the - We are recycling TVs and movies from 1982 18th Century ? - We are still @ war (resources will always create conflict) + Some of us are still here ….. trying to adjust to all things new! 19 20CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 10
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 30 years seems like a lifetime …. Is there any certainty in modelling ? + 2015 – 90% accuracy + 2025 – 80% accuracy + 2040 – 40% accuracy + 2080…. God help us…. 21 22CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 11
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Today will shape tomorrow … 23 24CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 12
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Reality check! 25 26CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 13
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Much will change in the next 8 years…. + This is just MSW, what about C&I ? 60 50 Millions tonnes per annum 40 Non-biodegradable Municipal Waste 30 20 Biodegradable Municipal Waste Requiring Diversion 10 Biodegradable Municipal Waste Allowed to Landfill 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 28CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 14
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 The urban fabric …. Not so different! Modern Waste Management … very different in some ways to 1982 …. But in others, not so different at all! 30CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 15
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Hindsight is a good thing …. Looking ahead …. 112 years later and we might be ready to deliver! 31CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 16
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 New Partnerships … Heat mapping: supply & demand Energy Suppliers Electrical & • Technology Skills Heat Users • Grid Backup • Contracts • Grid Inputs • Regulatory Risk • Locations • Infrastructure • Economic Role in Communities • Carbon CSR Agenda • Forward Price Uncertainty Technology Waste & Resource Suppliers Logistics • Rising Gate Fees • Process Technology • Conditioning Technology • Supply Chain • Strong Balance Sheets 34CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 17
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 However, we have the 80-20 rule… + The low hanging fruit has been picked … - Post consumer recycling - Recycled content + But 20% remains - Producer responsibility - Local services and systems - Closed loop systems - Renting (not buying) + What is the cost effectiveness of the remaining 20%? + What is the social acceptability of the remaining 20%? + Are we (as a society and as individuals) ready for this ….. What will happen next ….… 35 36CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 18
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Global trends in resource use …. Future resource use ? 37 38CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 19
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Global commodities …. The recession ‘bites’ + Metals prices 39 40CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 20
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Addressing the strategic imperative AEA currently working in this space …. “ The robust international trade in illegally mined, quota- busting rare-earth metals highlights China’s near monopoly on the raw materials for environmental technology – a 95% dominance of world supply that is likely to ” become more widely noticed as China tightens its grip The Times, 28 May 2009 Question: How will UK plc respond to this challenge and address this risk while maintaining it’s competitiveness? 42CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 21
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Materials identified @ risk US risk matrix + Antimony + Cobalt + Indium + Lithium + Niobium + Platinum + Rare earth metals + Tin + Tungsten 43 44CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 22
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Future limited resources – UK focus … Boom in demand for technology metals + Critical for our technological way of life …. Neodymium Lithium Palm Oil Policy: Policy: Policy: • UK aim of additional • CCC aim of 1.7 million • Sustainable Production 21GW wind power by electric cars on UK 2020 roads by 2020 Issue: Issue: • Palm oil is used in many • Use Neodymium in high Issue: products, including food and efficiency magnets • Used in lithium ion cosmetics. Also used as a • 600 – 1000kg per batteries biofuel 3-5MW turbine • High growth in demand • Reputational risks • 20,000 tonnes required, expected globally as EV associated with palm oil world production 7,000 uptake increases production in SE Asia and tonnes/annum S America • China accounts for 90% • Uncertainty in long term production supply – requires • Global palm oil demand development in Bolivia expected to double by 2030, • China are restricting supply especially triple by 2050 – pressure for sustainable sources 45 46CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 23
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Global end of life recycling rates China’s dominance – a worrying sign + Precious metals + China is a leading producer of: - Rare earths (97%) - Antimony (91%) - Tungsten (81%) - Magnesium (77%) - Graphite (71%) - Germanium (71%) - Flourspar (59%) - Indium (50%) - Gallium (32%) + Other leading producers: - Brazil – Niobium (92%), US – Berylium (86%) - South Africa – Platinum (61%), Congo – Cobalt (40%) 47 48CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 24
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Price trends for rare earth oxides Prices of critical raw materials + Expensive commodities!!! 49 50CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 25
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Forecasts to 2020 Media attention …. 51 52CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 26
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 The Government acts …. New approaches …. + Challenges businesses to see + Re-design risks as opportunities for - Make recovery of these materials easier change and improvement - Design products that are less reliant on at risk materials + Focuses on specific scarce + Materials substitution metals and minerals + New product engineering - those recognised as critical by businesses - University of Tokyo has developed an electric motor that can - especially in the hi tech, be used with Lithium batteries for electric vehicles on campus defence and environment but which does not use rare earth elements in the lithium sectors battery production + Recycling http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/f + Innovation Challenge Fund (Defra & TSB) iles/pb13719-resource-security- action-plan.pdf. 53 - Develop local economy closed loop projects 54CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 27
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Poor Eco-Design! Why design differently? + 80% of the cost of a product is determined at the design stage + 93% of production materials not used in the final product + 80% of products discarded after a single use + Design decisions will affect the whole lifecycle from the manufacture and use to the disposal of a product 56CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 28
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Design for recyclability Design for recycled content + Focus on ease of segregation + Aluminum – 95% less energy use + Use simple materials + Switch from PET to recycled PET - saving of 1.5 to 2 tonnes CO2 equivalent per tonne + Must link to infrastructure in country of choice + Card – can put up weight by 25% 57 58CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 29
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Future solutions? Business will need to act … + Out of adversity often comes innovation + Recycling will continue to grow + Repair, maintenance and re-use will take off + New business models are already emerging - Suppliers retain ownership - Suppliers incentivise take back of products for re-use or remanufacture - Leasing - Buying what you need (heat and light not energy) - Buying an output not a product (amount of metal cleaned not amount o f solvent used) 59 + Closed Loop systems in EU (and UK) 60CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 30
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 And how far could it go? Urban mining offers rewards …. + Lets stop exporting raw materials worth money! + Primary mining - Rare earth metals - 5g per tonne of gold in ore - Recyclables - SRD / RDF + Urban Mining + Lets look at this holistically - 250g per tonne of gold in PFC circuit boards - We have an energy crisis - 350g per tonne of gold in cell - We need to generate jobs phones - We have potentially valuable raw materials that we export + Lets think UK and lets make it happen + Recycling makes sense! - Needs strong Government leadership + And what about landfill mining for - Needs brave industrialists old resource ‘reserves’? - Needs a fully engaged waste management sector 61 62CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 31
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 WRAP are now leading the charge! 2042 will offer us new hope …. + Waste management becomes Resource Management - Comprehensive collections, EU process loops, greater efficiencies + We focus on quality and critical substances not tonnage + Traditional scrap merchants replaced by hi-tech segregation & reprocessing operations + Business risks must be seen as an opportunity for change - Leasing models - Closed loop recycling - Deposit systems - Design for recycling 63 64CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 32
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 A futures perspective? Looking forward to 2042 + HG Wells (1898)– The Time Machine & War of the Worlds + Fritz Lang (1927) – Metropolis + Aldous Huxley (1932) – Brave New World + Isaac Asimov (1950s) – Robot Laws & Psychohistory + Gene Roddenberry (1960s) - Star Trek + Pierre Boule (1963) - Planet of the Apes + John Christopher (1967) - The Tripods + Harry Harrison (1968) – More Room! More Room! + Arthur C Clarke (1968) – 2001, 2010, 2064, 3001 + George Lucas (1970s) - Star Wars + Philip K Dick (1972) - Bladerunner + Richard Fleischer (1973) - Soylent Green + Michael Anderson (1976) – Logans Run (set in 2274) + Terry Nation (1970s) – Blakes 7 + Wachowski Brothers (1999) – The Matrix et al 65 66CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 33
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Dystopian futures …. + High rise, pollution, overcrowding …. + Crime, famine, war, resource scarcity …. 67 68CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 34
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 "Soon theyll be breeding us like cattle! Youve got to warn everyone and tell them! Soylent Green is made of people! 69 Youve got to tell them! Soylent Green is People!” People!” 70CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 35
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Utopia or Dystopia? What future? + Which future scenario do you want? + Accept that: - Which do you believe will a become reality? - Waste is an inevitable by-product of society + No change - There will always be waste products from our way of life and - Waste arisings stabilise, markets issues continue, our consumer choice consumerism.... + However, we are facing daunting challenges: + Utopia - Climate change - Modern, clean, waste free? - Sea level rise + Dystopia - Resource scarcity - Revolution, apocalyptic, breakdown of social order - Population overcrowding etc. - Social unrest + New systems will develop - They must develop …. + Sci-Fi favours dystopia.... 71 72CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 36
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 So what will we be discussing in 2042? Landfill bans, Energy concerns, Land values, Personal responsibility, Resource scarcity, process efficiency, money, resource management … 73CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 37
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 HGV Drivers of the Future (MCIWM) But only if it is efficient and offers value for money! 75 76CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 38
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Strategy development in 2042 + Defra and DECC align energy security & resource management policies + DCLG is ‘bought out’ by Defra and local policies become local + BIS and DEFRA drive home their Resource Security Action Plan + Rise of nationalist tendencies as resource risks lead to a number of regional wars - Water, Rare earth metals, Plastics + UK Government replaced by pan 77 European policy agendas 78CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 39
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Will Ernie get his answer – what is MSW? We have the technology… + This is an ‘engineering’ approach to our problems.... God bless global warming..... - This is what we hear in classic Sci-Fi shows I thought I would be stuck on ice for + But Waste Management is not a purely engineering another 30 years! discipline…. - It is far more complicated than building a rocket! + It is a inter-related economic, social and cultural issue, complicated by emotions and media, that can only be addressed by understanding and working with society… - Understanding is the critical issue - We must embrace this if we are to shape the future 79 80CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 40
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 Waste & Resource Management A role for the CIWM? + 2042 will witness a greater harmony between resource and + CIWM UK grows in importance waste policy and practice - Membership numbers rising across the UK - Eco-parks, Renewable energy & heat production - New sectors turning to CIWM for advice and - Closed loop recycling, Landfill mining direction + There will still be a role for local authority waste managers and - UK Government listens (more often) waste management companies - International agencies look to the UK for best - Consultants too (decision-making will be hard and resource slim) practice + But industry is where the biggest changes will take place - A crop of new resource managers leave University courses to take up critical roles in our - Design for segregation & recycling new evolving sector … - Repair and re-use programmes + CIWM SW still going strong - Leasing programmes - Terry March has retired once or twice more but - Many new entrants to the sector – good news for CIWM! is still attending meetings 81 82CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 41
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 A new hope for civilisation? And finally …. + According to Arthur C. Clarke "any sufficiently advanced “A lot has changed in the past 300 technology is indistinguishable from magic" years. People are no longer obsessed with the accumulation of - perhaps we have not found the solution to our social problem? ‘things.’ We have eliminated hunger, want, the need for possessions. We’ve grown out of our infancy.” Captain Jean Luc Picard 83 84CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 42
    • Adam Read (AEA) April 2012 The last slide … promise! Catch me over lunch … Dr Adam Read Global Practice Director Waste Management & Resource Efficiency +44 (0) 7968 707 239 adam.read@aeat.co.uk www.aeat.co.uk 85 86CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 43