THOUGHT LEADERS FOR MANUFACTURING & SUPPLY CHAIN
ARC INSIGHTS
By David W. Humphrey
INSIGHT# 2003-17MD&H
APRIL 16, 2003
Exh...
ARC Insights, Page 2
©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com
The Hanover Fair plan...
ARC Insights, Page 3
©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com
cation in its full fo...
ARC Insights, Page 4
©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com
for 100 servo axes. A...
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Cautious Optimism Pervades Hanover Fair

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Cautious Optimism Pervades Hanover Fair
With the war in Iraq, stumbling European economies and a mysterious flulike
epidemic from Asia, the Hanover Fair opened its gates last week with
three strikes against it. But despite the subdued
atmosphere, exhibitors expressed cautious optimism
about signs of a recovery in automation
markets. This year a number of automation
suppliers showed surprisingly innovative products
centered on real-time Ethernet, which
finally proved that it’s ready to conquer the factory
floor.

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Cautious Optimism Pervades Hanover Fair

  1. 1. THOUGHT LEADERS FOR MANUFACTURING & SUPPLY CHAIN ARC INSIGHTS By David W. Humphrey INSIGHT# 2003-17MD&H APRIL 16, 2003 Exhibitors at last week’s Hanover Fair expressed cautious optimism despite the deep economic slump in the automation markets. The event also featured surprisingly innovative real-time Ethernet products - finally proving that it’s ready to conquer the factory floor. Cautious Optimism Pervades Hanover Fair Keywords Hanover Fair, Factory Automation, Real-time Ethernet, Motion Control Summary With the war in Iraq, stumbling European economies and a mysterious flu- like epidemic from Asia, the Hanover Fair opened its gates last week with three strikes against it. But despite the subdued atmosphere, exhibitors expressed cautious op- timism about signs of a recovery in automation markets. This year a number of automation suppliers showed surprisingly innovative prod- ucts centered on real-time Ethernet, which finally proved that it’s ready to conquer the fac- tory floor. Analysis The Hanover Fair, the largest industrial trade fair in the world, is really an umbrella event for eight related trade fairs of which factory automation is the centerpiece. While Hanover has long been THE major event for auto- mation, pressures within the industry are forcing the show organizers to change the format to please an increasingly dissatisfied target audience of exhibitors and visitors. In Europe, where trade fairs still thrive, more and more exhibitors have written off Hanover as an expensive “image” show in favor of more focused, regional shows like the November SPS/IPC/Drives fair in Nuremberg. Late last year, the organization representing robotics and machine vision suppliers made the decision to pull out of Hanover completely and start a new fair for robotics and automation. Robotics, machine vision, assembly and handling systems are the focus of this new every two-year fair, which debuts in June 2004 with the working name “Automatic.” Recognizing the industry’s desire to move to a two year format to better mesh with the innovation cycle, the Hanover Fair organizers have also de- cided to reinvent the show as a forum for both discrete and process
  2. 2. ARC Insights, Page 2 ©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com The Hanover Fair plans to add a process automation focus on an alternating-year basis to the traditionally discrete-oriented show. automation. As of 2005, the factory automation focus will move to an odd- year cycle alternating with a new process automation focus – previously not part of Hanover’s repertoire. However, this decision places the fair squarely in a competing position with the well- established INTERKAMA show in Düsseldorf, which is now also on an even year cycle. How many large- scale process shows does Germany need in the same year? ARC believes visitors and exhibitors will vote with their wallets. Cautious Optimism Pervades The 18 percent drop in attendance this year was attributed primarily to un- certainty caused by the war in Iraq and the resulting economic lull. Attendance by Asian visitors was hit especially hard by the current SARS threat. The number of exhibitors was down by less than 4 percent, includ- ing the 40-odd robotics and vision suppliers previously mentioned. Roughly half of the suppliers informally surveyed by ARC reported better than expected results in Q1 – resulting in a mood of cautious optimism for the next few quarters. Many attributed this short-term success to invest- ments that were delayed last year, but not canceled entirely. Automation suppliers in general are optimistic that the long-awaited recovery might still occur in 2003 despite last week’s cut in the European Union’s growth forecast from 1.8 percent to a dismal 1 percent. Ethernet and Motion Control Were the Hot Topics Two topics clearly dominated the factory automation halls at Hanover this year: real-time Ethernet and its application potential in motion control. While industrial network organizations announced plans for switched Ethernet solutions, many traditional component suppliers showed whole new product lines of Ethernet infrastructure products. Real-time Industrial Ethernet Comes of Age Just two weeks before the show, Profibus International (PI) announced plans and expected performance data for Profinet V3. With the aid of an embedded switch chip currently under development by Siemens, this new flavor of Profinet will use an iso-synchronous real-time (IRT) channel to synchronize critical data while still maintaining normal TCP/IP communi-
  3. 3. ARC Insights, Page 3 ©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com cation in its full form. PI expects V3-capable products to be available in 2005. Profibus International is clearly setting its sights on motion control – argua- bly the most demanding application in automation for networked solutions. The “Profidrive” application profile will also be used for Profinet motion applications. The organization claims a repeatable cycle time for Profinet V3 of 1 ms with a jitter of less than 1 µs for up to 150 axes, and a cycle time as short as 250 µs with “just” 30 axes. While these are respect- able cycle times, they are not unknown to users of SER- COS, which also achieves sub-millisecond cycle times. The difference here will be Profinet’s higher node ca- pacity compared with SERCOS in its present form. PI underscores the growing need for greater node capacity in newspaper and magazine printing machines as well as third generation (3G) packaging machines, which are being redesigned with more and more servo axes in place of mechanical linkages. Not to be outdone, ODVA used the occasion of the Hanover Fair to an- nounce its own real-time solution for EtherNet/IP. Dubbed “CIPsync”, this solution adds time synchronization services to the network’s existing Common Industrial Protocol (CIP). CIPsync is based on the new IEEE 1588 standard “Precision Clock Synchronization Protocol for Networked Meas- urement and Control Systems”, which is designed for local area networks that support multicast messaging. According to ODVA, lab testing has shown that a time synchronization accuracy of less than 0.5 µs is possible. The CIP specification enhancements are expected to be completed in 2003, with products likely to appear in the following year. Last but not least, Beckhoff Industrie Elektronik demonstrated its own solu- tion for harnessing the power of Ethernet for high-speed machine I/O known as EtherCAT. According to Beckhoff, Ethernet wasn’t conceptual- ized for the factor floor, and its minimum frame size of 48 bytes is inefficient for handling small-data nodes like I/O terminal blocks. The Eth- erCAT approach allows up to 4 gigabytes of I/O data to be mapped in packets from 2 bits to 64 kBytes directly into Ethernet frames, which are they passed back to the network via an IP-bus coupler. With this innova- tion method, Beckhoff claims update times of 30 µs for 1000 I/O and 100 µs Cisco Systems Is Entering the Industrial Market with the Launch of Its First Switch Designed for Harsh Environments
  4. 4. ARC Insights, Page 4 ©2003 • ARC • 3 Allied Drive • Dedham, MA 02026 USA • 781-471-1000 • ARCweb.com for 100 servo axes. A full line of EtherCAT products was announced at the show and is expected to be available at the end of 2003. Ethernet Infrastructure Goes Factory Automation The lack of industrial hardened infrastructure components and industry standards has hindered the acceptance of Ethernet at the device level. This deficit is being addressed not only by industrial component suppliers like Phoenix Contact, HMS, Hilscher and Hirschmann, but also by the office IT giant Cisco Systems, whose first “Catalyst 2955” Ethernet switch for the factor floor was displayed at the booth of partner Rockwell Automation. Cisco, with about 70 percent of the total worldwide switch market, is now setting its sights on the manufacturing world, focusing not just on switch hardware but also on the related ser- vices such as security, availability and Quality of Service – new vocabulary to manufacturers. Phoenix Contact exhibited its new Modular Managed Switch as part of its Factory Line. This new DIN-rail mountable switch looks more like a remote I/O block with expansion slots for plug-in “media modules”, al- lowing the user to mix and match ports of different media, including twisted pair and fiber optic, up to 24 ports. Recommendations • All doubts about Ethernet’s future role in the factory were swept away at this year’s Hanover Fair. As industrial Ethernet becomes more at- tractive, users need to review their controls strategies to determine whether a migration makes sense. Please help us improve our deliverables to you – take our survey linked to this transmittal e-mail or at www.arcweb.com/myarc in the Client Area. For further information, contact your account manager or the author at dhumphrey@arcweb.com. Recommended circulation: All MAS-D&H clients. ARC Insights are published and copyrighted by ARC Advisory Group. The infor- mation is proprietary to ARC and no part of it may be reproduced without prior permission from ARC. Component Suppliers Exhibited Innovative Products for Industrial Ethernet Like Phoenix Contact's New Modular Managed Switch

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