Climate change, teff and food security in Ethiopia
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Climate change, teff and food security in Ethiopia

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Assessing the potential geographic shifts of a major staple crop, teff (Eragrostis tef) in Ethiopia as a result of climate change. More information about the project: ...

Assessing the potential geographic shifts of a major staple crop, teff (Eragrostis tef) in Ethiopia as a result of climate change. More information about the project: http://www.abcic.org/index.php/programs/striga-resistance-in-sorghum-in-east-and-central-africa/effects-of-climate-change-on-teff-production-in-ethiopia

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Climate change, teff and food security in Ethiopia Presentation Transcript

  • 1. ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY Dan Kiambi, Fassil Kebebew, Maria D. Bij de Vaate, John Yumbya and KPC Rao Institute of Biodiversity Conservation Presentation for the IDRC, ESARO 20th September 2012
  • 2. Outline of the presentation  Overall impacts of climate change on agriculture  The project  Main objective  Specific objectives  Methodology  Key results of the study  Conclusions and recommendations  Building on the study
  • 3. Overall climate change effects on agriculture  Changes in geographic ranges of crops, pests and disease  Occurrence of new crops and livestock diseases and pests  Re-distribution of crops, variation in yields and loss of their genetic diversity  Adverse effects on agro-biodiversity leading to large scale extinctions of wild relatives of crop plants
  • 4. ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY  Project started in November 2010  Partners: ABCIC, IBC, CIAT and ICRISAT  Case study crop was Teff  Long history of cultivation  Associated with strong cultural practices  Geographic distinctiveness  Funding from IDRC
  • 5. Major objective Study the likely effects of climate change on distribution and genetic diversity of teff in order to guide scientific, policy and farm level interventions as well as draw inferences and implications for food security Project objectives
  • 6. Specific objectives  To assess the potential geographic shifts in distribution of teff  To assess the loss of diversity in teff as a consequence of climate change  To document and evaluate the climate change adaptation and coping strategies by farmers in the pilot areas
  • 7. Specific objectives  To assess socio-economic impacts and scientific and policy implications for food security  To sensitize policy makers and stakeholders on climate change concerns through effective communication and dissemination of the project findings
  • 8. Collection of teff data  A total of 1441 geo-referenced data points from gene bank records and herbarium specimens were collected from the Institute of Biodiversity Conservation and National Herbarium of the Addis Ababa University  Yield data records included 23 sample points describing altitude, latitude, longitude and teff yield Methodology
  • 9. Collection of climate data  Climate conditions both current (1950-2010) and future (~2050) were obtained from WorldClim  Bioclimatic variables for each of the 23 yield data points were extracted from the climatic datasets using DIVA-GIS software (Version 5.2). Methodology
  • 10. Suitability Index and teff yield  The model was run in DIVA-GIS. The output from the model was transformed into presence/ absence data by assigning presence to the areas where scores were within 2.5 – 97.5 percentile range  The scores for each pixel were the suitability indexes  Yield points were converted to shapefiles using ArcGIS 9.3 and overlaid on the suitability grids Methodology
  • 11. Socio-economic survey Developed to increase our understanding about agricultural activities and associated changes in the study districts Gimbichu, Minjar and Bora  Climatic changes observed  Impacts of changes as perceived by farmers  Challenges faced  Mitigation efforts of negative effects of climate changes Methodology
  • 12. Study Area The study area included Bora, Minjar Shenkora and Gimbichu located in central Ethiopia 300 respondents (100 per site) Methodology
  • 13. Current teff occurrence in Ethiopia in relation to rainfall (left) and temperature (right)
  • 14. KEY RESULTS OF THE STUDY
  • 15. Change in rainfall and temp over the past 7 yrs as perceived by respondents in the three districts Bora* Gimbichu* Minjar* ** n +/- + - n +/- + - n +/- + - Amount of rain 100 100 99 6 35 59 100 7 13 80 Frequency of rain showers 100 100 97 4 35 61 100 10 8 82 Distribution of rainfall in the year 100 100 97 15 19 66 99 9 8 83 Number of dry months in a year 100 98 2 89 39 52 9 94 6 61 33 Occurence of droughts 100 52 25 23 73 47 14 40 78 50 22 28 Occurence of floods 100 22 68 10 76 43 36 21 81 74 5 21 Water availability 100 19 81 96 2 25 73 100 16 28 56 Water stress 100 18 81 1 95 1 49 49 98 18 34 48 Length of the growing season 100 3 97 85 28 34 36 97 14 8 77 Temperature 100 99 1 98 7 80 13 98 5 81 14 Number of hot days 100 98 2 94 14 74 12 95 6 80 14 Occurence of heat waves 100 3 97 0 75 48 41 11 83 60 30 10 * Rates in percentage % of respondents (n) ** +/- no change + increase - decrease
  • 16. Most rapid changes observed by respondents in the three districts over the last 7 years Bora (n=100) Gimbichu (n=100) Minjar (n=99) Less rainfall 98 (1) 90 (1) 69 (2) Decreased reliability of rainfall 64 (4) 66 (3) 42 (5) Temperature increase 82 (2) 28 (5) 61 (4) More floods 12 0 2 Increased failure of crops 30 0 4 Increased weeds and pests 60 (5) 73 (2) 12 Less forest cover, environmental degradation 82 (2) 66 (3) 65 (3) Less wildlife 19 28 (5) 74 (1) Rates in percentage % of respondents (n) Between brackets is the ranking of most rapid changes in the district From a list of 38 issues (12 climatic related, 8 environmental, 11 agricultural and 7 socio- economic) For Minjar the changes in rainfall and temperature were mentioned often among the five most rapid changes observed, but less often than in Bora
  • 17. Cereal crop failures due to drought in the three districts Average number of crop failures due to drought during last 5 yrs Specified crop failure for respondents who lost crops to droughts* teff barley wheat maize sorghum Bora 2.5 (n=100) 43 20 68 96 22 Gimbichu 0.0 (n=1) 0 0 1 0 0 Minjar 1.4 (n=85) 61 59 89 34 31 * rates in percentage % of respondents (n)  In Bora all respondents reported to have suffered crop failures due to droughts.
  • 18. Current (left) and future (right) potential distribution of Eragrostis teff in Ethiopia
  • 19. Current (left) and future (right) predicted teff yields
  • 20. Drop in teff yield production in tonnes per hectare by the year 2050 Severe drop in yield will be experienced in the areas marked in red - This shows a change of 0.46 tonnes/ha and above
  • 21. Implications of climate change on teff production  The model confirmed future teff distribution changes and yields reductions due to climatic changes  Average loss of approximately 24% (236,975.65 Km²) of the current suitable area for teff by approximately the year 2050  With a change in the species climatic envelope, the species will only be suitable to temperatures of up to 27°C and a low of 15 °C
  • 22. Socio-economic impacts of climate change  Biophysical results projected into an economic analysis  Production of a national assessment of tef production and food security under climate change  Simple calculations used to evaluate consequent changes in national tef production and tef prices  Alarming results
  • 23. Socio-economic impacts of climate change  Effects of climate change on yields predict a loss of 0.46 tons/ha  A reduction of 1,190,784 tons in the national production  Estimated economic loss of US$650,961,954 based on farm gate prices  A loss of US$730,347,581 based on current market prices
  • 24. Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 25. Recommendations on strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation by farmers in the three districts Bora* (n=100) Gimbichu* (n=100) Minjar* (n=100) Consultation of the local community by government 14 4 7 Awareness on climate change 18 (3) 46 (2) 16 Conservation and management of forests 59 (1) 26 12 Law enforcement regarding forest conservation 33 (2) 1 3 Improve agricultural development policies 17 13 23 (3) Address land tenure issues 3 0 1 Address high costs of inputs 2 1 21 New technologies 18 67 (1) 43 (2) Improve access to technologies and innovations 2 7 8 Research and Development 0 1 6 Soil conservation 15 22 6 Water conservation 6 30 (3) 9 Development of infrastructure 0 0 44 (1) * rates in percentage of respondents (n) Between brackets is the ranking of most popular action points in the district
  • 26. Proposed interventions Local level interventions  Farmers should get better access to new technologies and knowledge, and moreover be encouraged to diversify crop varieties  A change of mindset among farmers is needed for them to adopt new technologies and crop varieties  An integrated approach in the application of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies is needed at the community level .
  • 27. Proposed interventions  Scientific interventions  Identification and isolation of valuable local varieties characteristics  Crop improvement to develop “climate ready varieties”  Streamlining seed distribution systems to improve access to “climate ready” seeds  Integrated community level approaches (including indigenous knowledge) in the development of climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies/strategies
  • 28. Proposed interventions  Policy interventions  Strengthening current development initiatives to support climate change adaptation/mitigation  Mainstreaming climate change adaptation/mitigation into development planning in the different economic sectors  Undertaking new investments in agricultural research targeting climate change issues  Enforcement of laws and policies that impact on climate change mitigation and adaptation
  • 29.  Policy interventions  Empowering and improving the capacities of farmers to respond to climate change  Supporting the development and dissemination of agricultural technologies targeted towards mitigation and adaptation of climate change  Integrate local indigenous knowledge systems and traditional decision making frameworks and mechanisms within the national climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies Proposed interventions
  • 30. Building on this study TITLE : ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SORGHUM IN KENYA: FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT 1. Replicate and refine the methodologies used in the previous study 2. Develop a yield index for sorghum which has not been done yet 3. Better options and opportunities for awareness (public and policy) 4. Better opportunities for policy dialogue 5. Use of lessons learnt in project design and implementation