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  • 1. 11 th General Conference of AARINENA 12-14 October 2008, Damascus- Syria Revisiting CWANA Research Priorities and Needs Assessment K. Shideed, M. Solh, and I. Hamdan
  • 2. The Context of Agriculture in NENA and Developing Countries in Dry Areas
    • Food and feed insecurity
    • Rural poverty (majority of poor are in rural areas)
    • Natural resources Scarcity/ degradation
    • Declining share of public spending allocated to agriculture
    • Poor countries are net food importers
    • Farming is the main market for jobs
    • Widening income inequality
    • Increasing food prices
  • 3.
    • Dry areas of developing world
    • Occupy about 3 billion hectares (19% of total global land area),
    • Are home to one-third of the global population – over 1.7 billion people.
    • About 16% of the population in these areas lives on one dollar a day, particularly in marginalized rainfed areas
    The Dry Areas
  • 4. Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)
    • Most countries in dry areas are facing increasing water scarcity
    • MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region
    • Highest water withdrawn in dry areas
    • Future projections of population growth suggest further decrease in per capita water availability in dry areas (from 1100 m 3 /yr to 550 m 3 /yr in 2050)
    • Increased competition on water
    • More research investment for efficient, sustainable , and equitable water use
  • 5. Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food
    • Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas
    • Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security
    • Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas
    • Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050
    Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries Access to water and food in developing countries and countries in transition
  • 6. Intensity of public agricultural R&D ( Total public agricultural R&D spending as a percentage of agricultural GDP) Source: Pardey, P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, and S. Wood. 2006. Agricultural Research: A Growing Global Divide? IFPRI, Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Initiative, Washington D.C. August 2006
  • 7. Research Intensity in Public Agricultural R&D in Selected CWANA Countries (Agricultural R&D spending for $100 of Ag GDP) 0.80 2000 Global 2.36 2000 Developed world 0.53 2000 Developing world 0.66 2000 CWANA Region 0.92 2001 Mauritania 0.95 2002 Morocco 1.04 2002 Tunisia 0.17 2000 Sudan 1.70 2000 Eritrea 0.43 2000 Ethiopia 0.53 2003 Syria 2.83 2003 Jordan Research Intensity ($) Year of Data Country
  • 8. Educational Attainment of Researchers for Selected CWANA Countries 1 3 3 17 47 36 2000 Mauritania 14 18 28 34 55 11 2002 Morocco 20 6 3 70 21 9 2002 Tunisia 17 26 6 33 46 21 2000 Sudan 0.2 1 2 5 36 59 2000 Eritrea 1 5 14 9 32 49 2000 Ethiopia 5 36 26 20 5 75 2003 Syria 5 17 19 33 28 39 2003 Jordan PhD MSc BSc PhD MSc BSc Year of data Country Share of Female (%) Education Attainment (%)
  • 9. Composition of Ag Research Expenditures, in selected CWANA countries, 2002 (%) 00 (00) 100 (100) 8.1 (8.1) 91.9 (91.9) Mauritania a  00 (00) 100 (100) 36.4 (36.4) 63.6 (63.6) Morocco a 00 (00) 100 (100) 26.4 (26.9) 73.6 (73.1) Tunisia a 8.1 (1.4) 91.7 (98.6) 26.4 (28.4) 65.3 (70.2) Sudan 00 (00) 100 (100) 7.3 (28.9) 92.7 (71.1) Eritrea a 0.2 (0.3) 99.8 (99.7) 10.8 (10.8) 88.9 (89.0) Ethiopia 0.7 (0.4) 99.3 (99.6) 15.8 (15.9) 83.4 (83.6) Syria 6.4 (3.4) 93.6 (96.6) 47.7 (38.1) 45.8 (58.5) Jordan Total Higher Education Research Institutions Country Private Enterprises Public Agencies
  • 10. Cereal growth rates in CWANA Countries, 1961 – 2002
    • Jordan, and Yemen experienced negative growth rates in cereal production over the last four decades
    • Syria, Egypt, SA, Pakistan and Iran are the only countries that achieved higher growth rates (above regional average)
    Production Growth Rates (%) - 0.9 0.5 3 1.6 3.5 0.4 - 2.3 - 4.7 3.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 1 1.4 3.5 7.6 1 2.6 3. 7 7.7 1.2 2.1 9 7.7 - 1.1 2.9 - 9 - 4 1 6 Afghanistan Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Iran Iraq Jordan Kazakhstan* Kyrgyzistan* Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Pakistan Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tajikistan* Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan* Uzbekistan* Yemen CWANA Region
  • 11. Grain gap in 30 CWANA countries (excluding Turkey and Kazakhstan) Source: World Bank 1993 Major Challenges of Dry Areas
  • 12. Methodology of Priority Setting (CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 1
    • Brainstorm meetings
    • Five brainstorming meetings were organized as follows:
      • Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) sub-region: 20 September 2001 in Tashkent (Uzbekistan)
      • Nile Valley and Red Sea (NVRS) sub-region: 27 September 2001 in Cairo (Egypt),
      • West Asia (WA) sub-region: 18-19 November 2001 in Aleppo (Syria)
      • North Africa (NA) sub-region: 8-9 January 2002 in Hammamet (Tunisia)
      • Arabian Peninsula (AP) sub-region: 24 January 2002 in Kuwait City (Kuwait).
    • Questionnaire
      • Over 500 questionnaires were distributed. The ratio of questionnaires returned to distributed is 67% (340 responses received out of 504 distributed).
    • Regional Consultation
  • 13. Methodology of Priority Setting (CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 2
    • Regional Consultation
      • The regional consultation meeting was structured as follows:
        • Plenary sessions to set the tone of the meeting, provide an overview of current agricultural research priorities in CWANA, and present the APAARI experience in agricultural research priority setting and the preliminary results of the CWANA survey undertaken in the region.
        • Parallel sub-regional working groups to revisit and finalize the agricultural research priorities identified during the sub-regional brainstorming meetings.
        • A comprehensive analysis of sub-regional priorities, validated by the respective working groups , in order to identify those priorities that are common to CWANA region.
  • 14. 2002 Research Priority: Criteria and Weights (%) Attached in Identifying Priorities 13 21 16 15 35 Total (CWANA) 12 17 19 15 39 Egypt 10 20 20 50 Libya 10 20 30 20 20 Morocco 16 20 14 19 31 Sudan Contribution to Develop. Food Security Resource Conserv. Poverty Alleviation Productivity Country
  • 15. 2002 Research Priority Setting: Importance of Agro-ecologies 49 19 32 Forest 7 29 64 Rangelands 39 10 51 Irrigated 8 7 85 Drylands Low Moderate High Importance (%) Agro-ecologies
  • 16. Setting Ag. Res Priorities: 2002 Exercise
    • Water & Soils (1)
    • Range (2)
    NRM
    • Marketing, Quality & value addition, and Policies (1)
    • Technology dissemination, IA, and Post harvest (2)
    Socioeconomic & Policy
    • Small ruminants (1)
    • Cattle (2)
    • Bees & Camel (3)
    Animals
    • Wheat & Barley (1)
    • Forages, Vegt., Industrial crops, and Legumes (2)
    • Fruit trees, Maize, Potato, and Forest (3)
    Crops
    • Germplasm improvement & biotechnology (1)
    • genetic resources conservation (2)
    • IPM (2)
    • Seed Production (3)
    Germplasm Management Regional Priorities (in Ranking) Item
  • 17. Context of Research Priority Setting
    • Millennium Development Goals
    • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
      • Global conventions: UNCCD, UNCBD, UNFCCC,
      • IT-PGFRA, and others
      • Fourth Report of the Inter-Governmental
      • Panel on Climate Change
    • CGIAR System-wide Priorities
    • Priorities identified by NARS
    • ICARDA’s New Strategic Plan, 2007-2016
    • Increased Food Prices and Concerns on Food Security
    • Increased Energy Prices
  • 18. High Increases in Food prices Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008 . Commodity prices (US$/ton) New trend?
  • 19. Increased Food Prices: World Bank Weighted Index of Commodity Prices 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (March) FERTILIZER FOOD GRAINS ENERGY
  • 20. World Grain Balance: Consumption Exceeds Production Source: USDA
  • 21. Productivity Growth is Declining: Potential for Increased Food Prices Source: World Development Report 2008.
  • 22. ICARDA Vision Improved livelihoods of the resource-poor in the dry areas
  • 23. ICARDA’s Major Research Programs Biodiversity and Integrated Gene Management Integrated Water and Land Management Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems Social, Economic and Policy Research
  • 24. ICARDA’s Research Programs, the Millennium Development Goals and CGIAR Priorities
  • 25. The Need for Revisiting Research Priorities for NENA Region- 1
    • Major national, regional and global developments since 2002
    • Research priority setting is a key factor in enhancing the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology.
    • To this end, promoting research-for-development in developing countries requires due attention to the following:
      • Revisiting research priorities of 2002
      • Understanding the evolution and identify complementary roles of different research partners, including NARSs, ARIs, and CG centers.
      • Conducting ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact and ensure relevance to poverty-targeting.
  • 26. The Need for Revisiting Research Priorities for NENA Region- 2
    • Revisiting R&D priorities with the aim of factoring the global, regional and national developments that have occurred over the past few years. This includes:
      • Assess NARS capacity to address emerging research issues (shifting of research focus toward poverty alleviation, NRM,…)
      • Developing an action plan to implement the priorities (funding, resource allocation)
      • Harmonizing and integrating the activities of regional and international organizations within AARINENA research priorities (based on comparative advantages)
  • 27. Advantages of A Regional Approach to Research Priority Setting
    • Economies of scale: A regional approach would enable the development of a critical mass of research that could lead to substantial economies of scale;
    • Synergies and complementarity : Seeking regional complementarity and synergies, based on NARSs’ comparative advantage , would significantly reduce research duplication and would enhance the efficient use of scarce regional resources;
    • Enhanced exchange flow : a regional approach would promote the exchange flow among scientists and institutions and would enhance the sharing of information, methodologies, and experiences;
    • Internalizing spillovers (spillins): A regional approach to agricultural research represents a logical and efficient path to internalizing such positive externalities;
    • Enhancing attractiveness of external funds: A regional research agenda may reveal more attractive to donor agencies.
  • 28. Process for Revisiting the Research Priority Setting- 1
    • The Task Force :
      • Members: Salah Galal, Majid Jamal, Nasri Haddad, Ibrahim Hamdan, Kamel Shideed Majid Slama.
      • The Task Force members also function as Focal Points each for one of the six priority clusters.
    • The Scope :
    • Thematic working groups rather than Regional /sub- regional (No. of themes?)
  • 29.
    • The Process:
      • Identify the themes and to develop the Working Groups; one WG for each Theme.
      • Enlarge the number of the sub-regional/country representation in each of the Thematic Groups.
      • Select for each WG leading expert (s) from the national programs (NARS etc) – Funding??.
      • Each WG will be supported by a member of the Task Force (Theme Focal Point). The Experts will:
            • Review the current Priority Setting
            • Present their views on the themes of the current priorities and to derive tentative suggestions for WGs discussion (an Expert Consultation) .
            • Assist the WGs develop recommendations and generate new agricultural research priorities
    Process of Revisiting the Research Priority Setting- 2
  • 30. Main Messages and Issues: Resource use efficiency and enabling policy
    • The need for rigorous research to answer the following questions:
      • How to address resource use efficiency, productivity and profitability?
      • How to ensure sustainability under highly stressed NR base, rapidly changing land use and climate variability?
      • What are the alternative options to improve the livelihoods of the farming communities?
      • What is the enabling policy and institutional environment to enhance the uptake and impact of improved technologies?
      • How to better link farmers to markets, and minimize market risks?
  • 31. Main Messages and Issues: Sources of Growth and Research Funding
    • Expansion in crop area was a major contributor to cereal growth rates in the last 4 decades. This is no longer a viable option given increased water scarcity
    • Future growth rates in food production needs to come from productivity enhancement
    • Private R&D contribution is expected to stay minimal in productivity-enhancing research of staple crops.
    • Publicly funded agricultural R&D will continue as the main source of productivity-enhancing research in NENA.
    • Spillovers of agricultural science and technology within and among countries have been a key feature of agricultural development.
  • 32. Main Messages and Issues: Recommendations for Promoting R&D
    • To enhance the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology:
      • Enhance technology strategies and priority setting in line with their comparative advantages, resource endowments, and contribution to the developmental goals
      • Understand the evolution and identify complementary roles of different research partners, including NARS, ARIs, and CGIAR Centers
      • Define options and opportunities for optimizing the contribution of agricultural R&D
      • Carry out ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact.
  • 33. Thank You for Your Attention