Soy crisis
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  • 1. Soy Crisis Chat Dr.P.E.Vijay AnandTechnical Director- Animal Feed and Aquaculture Programs, India American Soybean Association -International Marketing
  • 2. Depending on soy meal
  • 3. World Soybean UseIn MY 2011/12 World soybeanuse (254.9 mmt) is projected tobe greater than Worldproduction (245.1 mmt), leadingto an anticipated tightening ofWorld soybean supply-demandbalances.
  • 4. World Soybean UseWorld soybean usage has increased an average of8.5 mmt (+3.8%) annually since MY 2008/09.World soybean production increased over the sametime period, but all increase occurred from MY2008/09 to MY 2009/10 (from 212 up to 261 mmt inone year)Thereafter production trends were stable/decliningover the last three marketing years.
  • 5. Production fall in SA dictatingIt is now official that the Argentinesoybean crop in 2012 is about 40 –41 mmt and the Brazilian crop isaround 65 – 66 mmt. TheParaguayan crop is about 4 mmt.This is about 22 mmt lower thanlast year’s crop.
  • 6. US Soybean Crop US crop will be about 3.3 billion bushels (89.8 mmt) if the U.S. has normal weather and maybe 3.4 mmt (92.5 mmt) if yields are very good.
  • 7. Strange trend Tight - Argentina and Brazil report that both countries may need to import U.S. soybeans before their next harvest. The last time Brazil imported U.S. soybeans was in the mid-1990s.
  • 8. Strong trendChina is thestrongest buyer (55mmt) of US and SAsoy products. Thistrend will keepspurring globaldemand
  • 9. What does not happen in IndiaOver the next few months I suggest you may want toadvise soybean and soy meal buyers in your regionthat they should consider locking in new-croppurchases from the U.S. to make sure they will getthe supplies they need as well to avoid the potentialof higher prices in the fall and winter. They do notwant to get caught short of their needs or having topay high prices if the U.S. crop is poor
  • 10. India oil meal export Indias oil meal exports in the financial year that ended in March 2012 rose 8.9 percent on year to 5.52 million tones on strong demand from traditional buyers like Japan, Vietnam and South Korea,
  • 11. All are grabbing Indian meal An Indonesian feed miller bought soy meal a from India at a record-high price of $505 a c ame n n be rket iIra ma ton, including cost and freight, this week as new 2 – took prices climb on tight supplies and delay in 201 mmt shipments from South America, traders 0.5 said on Wednesday ( April 20th 2012). A group of Thai feed millers were in the market seeking some150,000 to 170,000 tons of soy meal through a private tender for shipment between October and December, traders said ( April 4, 2012)
  • 12. Who grabs Indian protein? 80% Vietnam, China,Indonesia, Japan, SouthKoreaWe forget about PK,BG,CE and NE? = 1 MMT?Are we in a position tospare meal; if we know ourindustry well -we may not
  • 13. Silently PK NEshipping 0.300 0.100orSlipping? 3.5 MMT 0.450 IN BGAbout 1 MMTIs used by our neighbors CE 0.100
  • 14. Despite Y/Y percentages of oil meals, soy meal exportshave been steady at average 3.5 MMT/Yr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Exports 3.42 3.66 3.90 4.11 2.11 3.80
  • 15. Of total oil meal, 70-80% export volume is SBM Are we on the right track?Is somebody smarter thanwe are? Or we are most generousto support some oneelse’s growth by makingsacrifices
  • 16. SBM situation/forecast Soy use Soy use Current by 2015 2010 soy use sector (MMT) Broiler 2.29 2.61 3.82 Layer 0.808 0.860 1.50 Aquaculture 0.23 0.350 0.833 Dairy 0.100 0.100 0.150 Total 3.43 3.92 6.30
  • 17. Domestic dependenceParameter ValueSoybean Production 9400Less seeds 1222 2010 - 66%Less human consumption 500 consumedBeans to crush 7678 in domesticSBM produced 6295Exports 2112 marketDomestic Animal 3430Domestic Human 753Domestic SBM Use 4183
  • 18. Forecasting SBM use by broiler industry Year Broiler feed SBM SBM (MMT) @25% @ 28% 2009 7.00 1.75 1.96 2010 7.08 1.77 1.98 2011 7.93 1.98 2.22 2012 8.88 2.22 2.48 2013 9.94 2.48 2.78 2014 11.13 2.78 3.11 2015 12.76 3.19 3.57
  • 19. Price - hide and seek? Click for Current Session Chart Open High Low Last May12 427.5 433.0 424.0 432.1Rs.22464 Jul12 428.5 432.8 424.2 432.6 Aug12 424.0 424.0 422.5 422.5 Sep12 402.0 402.0 401.1 401.1 Oct12 - 385.9 384.6 385.9 Dec12 - 382.8 381.1 382.8Rs.29500 Jan13 - 376.5 373.6 376.5 Mar13 360.7 363.0 360.7 361.2 May13 - 355.0 351.6 355.0
  • 20. What is the solution? Ask for a quota system Don’t ask for ban – its sensitive to GOI Ask for slashing import dutyBe proactive – do not react ONLY whenprices shoot upKeep projecting what the domesticindustry needsLook into international rates/trendsfrequently
  • 21. What influences prices?Crush margins between meal/oil/seed Weather during sowingCurrent crop disease/production statusExchange ratesGOI policy for MSP, import duty, exportincentivesPrice of meal v/s other protein meals
  • 22. What influences prices?Diseases in the animal production sectorDemand of SBM from importing countriesDemand in the domestic marketCBOT price movement ( reference)Forecast of soy production by USDAShipping, freight and logistics
  • 23. Balance Switched We agree that the animal feedindustry is moving aheadrapidly New businesses are rapidlyincreasingNew systems and new species- increasing Animal performances requiringquality and quantity of feed =more raw material required
  • 24. Quality of investments
  • 25. Looking beyond..Internal feeding Governmentrequirements could come for India under pressure
  • 26. Alarm.. Bells are ringing in India, we must hear them….. Countries depending on India need to be proactive and make alternate arrangements for meal supplies
  • 27. Industry growth will needprotein meal for domestic use NMS
  • 28. Forewarnedso beForearmed